As long as the raps don't play Chicago first round I like +600.Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Lebron will take the Cavs to the conf finals but could be drained by then.
As long as the raps don't play Chicago first round I like +600.
Lebron will take the Cavs to the conf finals but could be drained by then.
Drexel just kinda Nicky Katt in "Boiler Room"ed everyone. Jesus fucking Christ.
cmoneyesque
p.s. I can't imagine taking that beat. I don't even know if that beat happens as often as getting in QQ on QJ3 board vs. 22 and losing to quads. Sick.
Todd I'd say two things RE: aboveYup, I am pretty convinced that this is a dirty angle they pull with live betting.
I did miraculously get a live bet "rejected" recently where the line moved in my favor, but this barely ever happens. Yet it if the line moves the other way, it rejects EVERY FREKAING TIME.
It also takes a minimum extra 5 points juice on live betting on both sides. So if the line is +10.5, it will be 10.5 -115 on both sides. Sometimes it will even be worse, like -125/-110.
The "pause" when you submit a live bet is about 3 seconds or so. That's way too long. Pretty sure that's the angle.
1. Live betting is a very shallow pool. It takes very little money to move a line. They only way they make money is to move fast and have at least .15 lines. Remember when it comes to live betting almost everyone is running to the same side of the boat. When a favorite gets down by 10 at the end of the first half almost ll the action live/2h is to bet the favorite to come back. If books weren't nimble they would get murdered.
2. I don't think you will have a much different experience at a different book with line moves, but you really need to have 3-4 books if you want to be a successful bettor. I won 3 different bets by .5 this weekend because I shopped lines.
03/22/2016 @ 10:50 AM
MLB Write-In Game - Estadio Latinoamericano - Havana, Cuba
[928] CUBA CUBA +105 ( ACTION ) RISKING 120.00 TO WIN 126.00
Two minor league teams
One gives a shit.
The commies really love Obama. Same rock star applause we gave him eight years ago
Last edited by Sanlmar; 03-22-2016 at 10:52 AM.
What's not to love?
Alright, alright, alright.
Ignore my shooting off for the moment.
Red Sox under 87 games is such a mortal lock. Already dropped from 87.5 today online. That should tell you something. Pitchers out indefinitely. Ramirez & Sandoval as awful as they are just have to be put out there cause of huge contracts. Manager Farrell won't make it to July 1.
Gotta bet big, if you are gonna tie up your money til friggin Christmas. I ain't tying up money online with that exposure.
Can someone point me to Vegas books MLB Regular Season Total wins?
Thx
In related degeneracy.
Yankees giving me solid hope.
Ticket #: 252842016] PARLAY (3 TEAMS) RR (1P-3T)
03/22/2016 @ 07:35 PM
NBA [657] TOTAL o201-110
(MEMPHIS vrs LA LAKERS)
03/22/2016 @ 03:40 PM
MLB Exhibition Baseball
[924] NY YANKEES -145 ( ACTION )
03/22/2016 @ 06:05 PM
MLB Exhibition Baseball
[926] KC ROYALS -110 ( ACTION ) RISKING 200.00 TO WIN 1032.00
Anyone who really likes to take a punt on a long shot go with the Charlotte Hornets at 33/1 to make the NBA finals. They have been playing great lately and that price is decent in a conference that nobody has taken control over yet.
Sanlmar: You like to bash the Dodgers, but they were smart enough to pass on Hanley Ramirez. As much as he did for them in 2013, they realized that he was a banged up mess (and horrible on defense), and not worth big money, even for a deep-pocketed team.
So the Sox got him instead.
Never understood the fascination with Sandoval, either. Very overrated player. I guess his playoff heroics got everyone excited.
you lash out like a teenager.
3 HR game in the World Series (2 vs Ver Lander)
hits in 27 out 29 playoff games, (when most all of wins were 1 run, pitching duels.)
Everyone in the clubhouse loved him (people started piling on after he left.)
Even w/this shitty year in Boston he has a lifetime 288. Avg
I get that he isn't what he used to be, but to say you "NEVER" understood is a joke,
if he was a Dodger (& he had 3 WS rings) you'd love him.
San Francisco crowned the ‘world’s best’ city to live: survey
https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/...o-live-survey/
I do poke the Dodgers with a big stick. The Dodgers ARE the Red Sox. The same frustration I see with the Red Sox is replicated 2000 miles to the west.
I have simply been trying to benefit you with my experience. You've come around.
Overpaying for middling talent. Passing on top level talent in the name of value. Just to name two examples of value retardation.
The Dodgers have embraced the whole value/Sabremetrics model. 15 years too late.
The model has shifted. Post steroids, post power, the emphasis shifts to speed and defense. Speed is the domain of youth. Baseball is getting younger by several orders of magnitude for that reason. As an aside, Ramirez & Sandoval are maybe the old school value model - if anything at all.
I would be dumping every nickel and every waking moment into scouting and minor league development. I would be hiring strong baseball experienced management to facilitate that. Exactly what the Dodgers aren't.
Despite all that, the Dodgers and Red Sox have pretty good prospects. What you do with them is another story.
Sandoval came into camp heavier than ever. After being fat and sucking last year. No winter diet mandate or goal set forth by Red Sox.
Hanley Ramirez wasn't going to play shortstop or DH. What was the plan? They put him in left last year. Hanley has always had issues with his commitment to the game. He really didn't want to be in left and was a spectacular fail. It was clear last year he was going to first base.
Now this is the gold. Did Hanley Ramirez work on learning first base last winter? Ramirez showed up to spring training without a first baseman's mitt. WTF. He borrowed Napoli's glove. Priceless. I again blame management.
Red Sox are young but clearly are managed poorly by Farrell. Cancer victim or not - he shoulda been whacked. Hanging on to him was all PR.
Anyway, the Red Sox are the Dodgers.
I binked that parlay in part by fading the Dodgers against the World Series Champions. The Mets are a warm mess and that felt good against the Yankees. The first two legs were baseball and I was never behind. Kobe showed up for the Lakers and that was kinda smooth. I couldn't get good value on the baseball so I thought the parlay was the right play.
On a side note. Lol Kobe being described last night as the team's veteran leader. Two kids facing sexual assault charges from last Sunday. Kobe prolly has sage advice. Meta World Peace drawing two quick technicals and getting bounced. The whole bench hugging and high-five's all around. City of Champions.
If someone could help me out with a resource for Vegas books Regular Season Totals i would be in your debt.
Last edited by Sanlmar; 03-23-2016 at 10:36 AM.
Nothing better than crushing your books for $8K with a Zack Johnson top 5 bet and finding out one of your books is bankrupt and you probably won't see $2K of the winnings.
Always have multiple outs. Always spread the action. Important lesson of gambling. The book that closed at me had +1350 listed and the other four books had +1300 and +1275. Did I give up some value? Yes? But I got minimized credit risk in return and in this instance it paid off.
I appreciate your general sports betting observations, Daly.
I have had a great week. A rare second half bet last night.
03/23/2016-ONLINEat08:46 PM
[#253010624] STRAIGHT BET (Risking: 120.00 - To Win: 114.00)
03/23/2016 - 09:01 PM
NBA
[2771] TOTAL o110-105 (2H LA CLIPPERS vrs 2H GOLDEN STATE)
Score: 2H LA CLIPPERS(49) - 2H GOLDEN STATE(63)
WIN
03/23/2016-ONLINEat08:48 PM
[#253010918] STRAIGHT BET (Risking: 132.00 - To Win: 120.00)
03/23/2016 - 09:01 PM
NBA
[2772] 2H GOLDEN STATE -6-110
Score: 2H LA CLIPPERS(49) - 2H GOLDEN STATE(63)
WIN
I tend to watch the line movement like I might the stock market tape. Try to divine what the move is telling me. Retail interest and late line movements and all that shite. I don't look at any math like averages, etc. I assume all that shit is already plugged in. No news here but the late late movement is often the smart move. Got all constipated and couldn't pull the trigger last night on the under Totals but the late move was right.
The first half shooting was below mean and I felt opportunity was there on second half. Worked out this time.
Remarkably, I actually have a point. The Warriors & Spurs meet up on April 7th. Warriors at home chasing records. Spurs will already be settled up with playoff seeding. Time to rest regulars and not reveal anything to Warriors regarding strategy. A tank without regret.
Thinking about this game spurred me (like that?) to consider something broader. Are initial lines (the very first post) a purely math & modelling exercise? Are broader story lines ignored at that point and adjusted through betting action?
Like most I imagine, I look at only today's lines. Am I missing opportunity by not being prepared to react to the next day's initial lines?
$10,000,000 Pick Six this Sat 3/26/ Horse players, the Rainbow pick six is a must give away Sat at Gulfstream park. It's 5 mill now and expect at least 5 mill bet on sat, maybe more. Its a decent bet with the 5 mill carried over to this day. Its only .20 a ticket, so you can spread out pretty good. But it is a pretty tough card, 5 turf races and big feilds, have to wait for the scratches, but I'm at a 400.00 ticket and don't feel that good about it I'm using a ticket with a (2/4/5/5/2/5) Maybe I can cut it down with scratches. Well Good Luck All
Hockey. Bruins struggling. Back up goalie - who is dreadful lately.
[Ticket #: 253122882] STRAIGHT BET
03/24/2016 @ 04:15 PM
NHL
[55] FLORIDA -101 RISKING 121.00 TO WIN 120.00
First Period Bet
03/24/2016 - ONLINE at 03:56 PM
Ticket #: 253123646] STRAIGHT BET
03/24/2016 @ 04:05 PM
NHL
[1055] TOTAL o1½+115
(1P FLORIDA vrs 1P BOSTON) RISKING 100.00 TO WIN 115.00
watching the miami/villanove game and I see more empty seats then filled seats. sweet 16 game
I liked florida today as well, the bruins are going to shit themselves the rest of the season
Stupid prop bet. Plus $20
Anyway. Watching Clippers/Trailblazer under. Already committed but would love me some 215
Late money pounding this thing up got under 216.5 -110 On a blip
prolly running against smart money.
JJ Reddick was not himself against Warriors. I need alcohol. Will post the carnage in a bit
edit:
[Ticket #: 253163554] STRAIGHT BET
03/24/2016 @ 07:45 PM
NBA
[810] TOTAL u213½-110
(PORTLAND vrs LA CLIPPERS) RISKING 132.00 TO WIN 120.00
03/24/2016 - ONLINE at 07:01 PM
[Ticket #: 253166087] STRAIGHT BET
03/24/2016 @ 07:45 PM
NBA
[810] TOTAL u214½-110
(PORTLAND vrs LA CLIPPERS) RISKING 132.00 TO WIN 120.00
03/24/2016 - ONLINE at 07:35 PM
[Ticket #: 253170830] STRAIGHT BET
03/24/2016 @ 07:45 PM
NBA
[810] TOTAL u216½-110
(PORTLAND vrs LA CLIPPERS) RISKING 220.00 TO WIN 200.00
Some really pitiful shit.....
Last edited by Sanlmar; 03-24-2016 at 08:26 PM.
Well that was the dreadful shit I was expecting.
This endless hype comparing Warriors to the Bulls or anyone else really is making me apoplectic.
The "Splash Brothers" Curry & Thompson. 2015-2016 averaging 52.3 as a duo.
Posted a little Pete Maravich a few posts back. So this is a layup.
Maravich & Hudson 1973-74 Averaged 53.1 No 3 point line.
Give it a fucking rest.
So Dr. J wants to leave the ABA and prove his game is for real in the NBA. He signs with Maravich's Hawks. Lawyers & judges blew it up. But for a short while these two played together.Pete Maravich is the most skilled basketball player I've ever seen"
- Julius Erving
Cool read. Never saw Dr J chime in on Maravich before.But when you're playing with Pete, you realize that his game, which on TV looks like a flashier version of what I was familiar with from watching the Globetrotters, is actually much faster than anyone who is doing that kind of dribble, cross-over, snap-pass, no-look stuff. Pete has all of the Globetrotters moves, but he can do them at unimaginable speeds. He's one of the fastest players I've ever played with.
http://deadspin.com/this-doctor-can-...the-1469135960
I am so looking forward to the hopefully healthy Spurs stuffing the Warriors and their one dimensional game. $$$
I had the +205 moneyline on this game.... with Portland up 7 in the final minutes.
Then Clippers caught them. Then Portland was up 3 with about 20 seconds left.
Then the Clippers executed a sloppy play and somehow took a desperate shot from way behind the arc, which went in, to tie it back up.
Then there was a bad non-call at the basket with 1 second left, giving the ball to the Clippers instead of resulting in two free throws.
Then there was a catch-and-shoot basket, and the Clippers won.
Just saw a 2 point drop Dallas-GS
What Up?
Opened 226.5 Now 221
Spread now 17
Took 221 over
Dallas +17
Both small - I can unwind later if need be
Last edited by Sanlmar; 03-25-2016 at 11:07 AM.
There are currently 6 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 6 guests)
Reply With Quote
