President 2016

[rum dick]

The billionaires i've met were pretty normal. Nothing like spraytan mcpees himself trump. And they sure as hell didnt act like brokedick carnies and run pissant scams like Trump U just to make some extra pocket change. Anyhow, too bad gamble isnt here. I bet that guy has some great stories about drunken partying with billionaires.

[rum dick]

How about that beat down the Hills dropped tonight. You could really feel the bern.....alright i'm gonna see my way out of this thread.

[Krypt]

An AMAZING piece from Reagan's former budget director, David Stockman:

America will need the Almighty’s unstinting favor if Donald Trump becomes our 45th President. Still, blessed be The Donald for running a demolition derby in the Republican primaries.

There is no hope for the future of capitalist prosperity and a free society at home and world peace abroad unless the Republican Party is destroyed. And, by golly, Trump may well accomplish the deed.

We need to be clear. There is no longer a Republican Party rooted in the main street highways and byways of America. What’s left of it is not really even the xenophobic, nativist, crypto-racist flotsam and jetsam of the populist right that Trump is successfully calling to political arms.

The fact is, the GOP has mutated into the Warfare State party. Nestled comfortably in the Imperial City, it operates a plethora of special interest rackets which underwrite its incumbents’ bi-annual electoral campaigns out in the provinces.

In the interim, GOP politicians idle their time in the capital and on foreign junkets conjuring and embellishing scary stories about terrorist threats and hostile regimes. So doing, they perceive enemies of the American Imperium to be stalking the planet everywhere and even creeping onto these exceptional shores.

In a word, as the party of the Warfare State, the GOP’s main business has become promoting the agenda, campaigns, machinations and glory of the Imperial City. Whenever its pro forma rhetoric about small government and fiscal prudence becomes inconvenient to the needs of the military/industrial/surveillance complex or the fund-raising requirements of its special interest rackets, the GOP’s putative conservative economics platform quickly becomes “inoperative” in the Nixonian vernacular.

There is no better prototype for the new GOP than Senators Lindsay Graham and John McCain. Their agenda consists exclusively of promoting and superintending Washington’s foreign projects, occupations, alliances and maneuvers. Cycling through Tel Aviv on a regular basis, showing up on the battlements of Kiev and lecturing the Chinese about maritime law in international waters, for example, they comically imitate the first century Roman Senators they fancy themselves to actually be.

Yet after decades in Washington they and most of their Senate colleagues have accomplished nothing that resembles the old Republican verities. In fact, during 2000-2006 when Republicans controlled the Congress and the White House, not a single welfare state program or agency was eliminated or even reformed, while vast new expansions of education, Medicare, agriculture, alternative energy subsides and much more were piled on the pre-existing heap of state.

Accordingly, the Federal spending share of GDP grew faster than at any time in history; and the $4 trillion worth of new national debt incurred during the eight Bush years smashed all prior peacetime records.

Even when the likes of Graham and McCain occasionally took time from their foreign adventures, it was not to lead a charge on shrinking the Welfare State or balancing the budget. McCain famously embraced the Wall Street bailouts in the fall of 2008, thereby ending once and for all GOP credibility on the sanctity of free markets and opposition to crony capitalism.

Graham was worse. He embraced the dubious science of global warming, the carbon tax and the vast expansion of the regulatory state that policy implies.

In all, the GOP establishment has become an integral part of the Washington ruling class. It has no passion——only lip service—–for the anti-Washington predicate on which the party was founded.

Once upon a time, by contrast, the GOP actually stood for free markets, fiscal rectitude, hard money and minimalist government. Calvin Coolidge did a pretty good job of it. And even the unfairly besmirched Warren G. Harding got us out of the foreign intervention business—-a path that the great Dwight D. Eisenhower pretty consistently hewed to under the far more challenging conditions of the cold war.

But these were sons of America’s old school interior—–Massachusetts, Ohio and Kansas. As temporary sojourners in Washington, they remained incredulous and chary of grand state missions either at home or abroad.

Harding called it returning to “normalcy”. Coolidge said Washington’s business was to get out of the way. And Ike actually shrank the Warfare state by one-third, ended Truman’s wars and started no new ones, resisted much of the Dulles’ brother’s interventionist agenda, balanced the budget and froze the New Deal as hard in place at he had the votes to achieve.

Today’s Republican crowd bears no resemblance. They live in the capital, fully embrace its projects and pretensions and visit the provinces as sparingly as possible. And that’s why The Donald has them so rattled, even petrified.

To be sure, there is much that is ugly, superficial and stupid about Donald Trump’s campaign platform, if you can call it that, or loose cannon oratory to be more exact. More on that below, but at the heart of his appeal are two propositions which strike terror in the hearts of the Imperial City’s GOP operatives.

To wit, he is loudly self-funding his own campaign and bombastically insisting that America is getting a bad deal everywhere in the world.

The first of these propositions explicitly tells the legions of K-Street lobbies to take a hike, thereby posing a mortal threat to the fund raising rackets which are the GOPs lifeblood. And while the “bad deal” abroad is superficially about NAFTA and our $500 billion trade deficit with China, it is really an attack on the American Imperium

The American people are sick and tired of the Lindsay Graham/John McCain/George Bush/neocon wars of intervention and occupation; and they resent the massive fiscal burdens of our outmoded but still far-flung alliances, forward bases and apparatus of security assistance and economic aid. They especially have no patience for the continued huge cost of our commitments to cold war relics like NATO, the stationing of troops in South Korea and the defense treaty with the incorrigible Japanese, who still blatantly rig their trade rules against American exports.

In short, The Donald is tapping a nationalist/isolationist impulse that runs deep among a weary and economically precarious main street public. He is clever enough to articulate it in the bombast of what sounds like a crude trade protectionism. Yet if Pat Buchanan were to re-write his speech, it would be more erudite and explicit about the folly of the American Imperium, but the message would be the same.

That’s why the War Party is so desperate, and why its last great hope is the bantam weight Senator from Florida. In truth, Marco Rubio is an obnoxious kid who wants to be President so he can play with guns, planes, ships and bombs. He is a pure creature of the Imperial City, even if at his young age he has idled there only since 2010.

Yet down to the last nuance of his insipid neocon worldview and monotonous recitation of the American Exceptionalism catechism, he might as well have been born in Washington of GS-16 parents, not Cuban refugees, raised as a Congressional page, and apprenticed to the Speaker of the US House rather than serving as the same in the backwaters of Tallahassee.

What Marco Rubio is all about is Warfare State republicanism. When he talks about restoring American Greatness it is through the agency of Imperial Washington. He has no kinship with Harding, Coolidge or Eisenhower. None of them were intent on searching the earth for monsters to destroy, as does Rubio in every single speech.

And make no mistake. Every time this naïve smart aleck chastises Obama for weak leadership and alleged failure to get the job forcefully done in Syria, Libya, Iraq, Yemen and countless elsewheres, the ghost of John Quincy Adams should be hollering in his grave. Stalking the globe for monsters to destroy is exactly what this wanna be little Napoléon is all about.

Likewise, none of the Republican greats would have vowed to tear-up the hard-won nuclear and trade deal with Iran on day one in office, as Rubio never stops declaiming. His hard core opposition to that breakthrough for peace and sanity, in fact, is a damning indictment.

The War Party in Washington and Tel Aviv has spent the last 30-years constructing a tissue of lies about the Iranian regime because both need an enemy in order to mobilize their domestic constituencies. The truth is that despite its theocratic rebuke of Imperial Washington after the bloody and thieving reign of the Shah was peacefully ended, the Iranians have never aspired to nuclear weapons, do not conduct a remote fraction of the terrorism inflicted by Washington’s drones, bombs and cruise missiles, and have never threatened the safety and security of the American people.

In denouncing the Iranian accord, Rubio is loudly embracing Washington’s 30-year tissue of lies about Iran and the destructive neocon foreign policy of which it is but one baleful extension.

So the good in The Donald at this juncture is that only he can stop Senator Marco Rubio. Only Trump’s brash bombast can finally displace the toxic neocon ideology that has mutated the GOP into the handmaiden of the Warfare State.

Indeed, Rubio is the very worst bag carrier for the Washington neocon establishment yet. Even George Bush could not be persuaded to bomb Tehran owing the thinness of the evidence and the awful implications of launching an outright genocide against an innocent Persian nation of 80 million.

Yet the strutting know-it-all boy Senator from Florida, who never even learned his way around the Senate but oozes with Napoleonic pretensions and delusions of grandeur, could readily do far worse.

That brings us to the bad of The Donald and what I called the Hairy Deal a few weeks back. Even as The Donald talks up a populist-sounding storm and rebukes Imperial Washington with the insolence it richly deserves, his predicate is fundamentally wrong. He insists that the nation’s ills stem from incompetent politicians making bad deals.

But that’s not right. The problem is bad policies and destructive ideas in the hands of Washington’s career politicians who are extremely competent at orchestrating the machinery of the state against the liberty and prosperity of its citizens.

Thus, in the hierarchy of things screaming out for radical change, the Donald’s favorite whipping boys——-NAFTA, China’s trade practices, illegal aliens and the danger of Muslim refugees——-don’t even rank. Nor do safeguarding the Second Amendment or building a horizontal version of Trump Towers on the Rio Grande.

The fact is, Trump has fashioned his platform by opportunistically scratching the most fearful and bigoted itches roiling the electorate. He has absolutely no semblance of a coherent program——or even an incoherent one for that matter.

Instead, his pitch is comprised of pure bombast and bile. It’s based on the exceedingly dangerous proposition that what Washington needs is a smart deal maker who can make the government agencies and bureaus run better at home and foreign leaders run for cover abroad.

You could call it the Man-on-the-White Horse syndrome, and pity the horse.

But don’t pity the nation. Sadly, the people are getting what they deserve. They have allowed both political parties, the agencies of their democratic right to rule, to betray them with impunity.

[FPS_Russia]

I'm usually not one to post links to infowars but this is from Drudges homepage and it's pretty interesting.
Apparently this guy Alex Jones routinely interviews is a Trump insider. He has some incredible stories of the establishment trying to stop Trump. If true there's many juicy nuggets in this interview.

Video of interview in link, this guy legit?
The establishment is freaking out so I'm not ruling it out.
http://www.infowars.com/breaking-ins...to-stop-trump/

Would Trump still be in the lead if everyone except Rubio dropped out of the race?

[BeerAndPoker]

[MumblesBadly]

"PSA: An important message from the galactic federation"

 

https://vine.co/v/i6dAmi51Lgt

[Pooh]

I'm usually not one to post links to infowars but this is from Drudges homepage and it's pretty interesting.
Apparently this guy Alex Jones routinely interviews is a Trump insider. He has some incredible stories of the establishment trying to stop Trump. If true there's many juicy nuggets in this interview.

Video of interview in link, this guy legit?
The establishment is freaking out so I'm not ruling it out.
http://www.infowars.com/breaking-ins...to-stop-trump/

Would Trump still be in the lead if everyone except Rubio dropped out of the race?

If Trump does well Tuesday this thing is over.

Regarding everyone dropping from the race except Rubio.....Trump expands his lead. Cruz voters aren't going to Rubio because they hate him. Carson's voters hate Rubio and Jeb Bush's voters hate Rubio. Now if everyone dropped out except Cruz and Trump then we'd have a closer race only because Texas has a lot of delegates and Cruz will likely take that state. HOWEVER, Trump still wins.

I hope he picks Kasich for VP honestly. They take Ohio and Trump will take Florida in the general. The west coast of Florida is about as red as they come so that isn't an issue. Where the Republicans lose Florida is Palm Beach and Miami-Dade. These are primarily either inner city or NY/NJ transplants. Trump also has a large presence in this part of Florida due to the multiple golf courses and resorts he owns. In other words they love Trump in Florida. Inner city will not show up this cycle like they did for Obama. Plus it's clear people are coming out of the wordwork to vote this cycle due to the record numbers in the primaries. This will only expand come the general. I predict he takes Florida by atleast 3 points in the finals.

Trump 2016

[opalockafats]

Hillary is -160 (to save the world) was +115 two weeks ago, once the Grand ole Party nominates THE CLOWN , Hilary will shoot up to 4 or 5 to 1. When the dems start airing adds showing trump flailing his arms mocking the handicapped, "even compassionate conservatives will be offended" do they they really exist, I've never seen one. Once I asked a Republican if he thought poor kids should get free lunch at school, he said " sure I'm a compassionate conservative, But the kid should have to stay after lunch to help clean up the mess the kids that paid for lunch made" in fact every Republican I know says that. Or the ad that shows trump telling women when they asked tough questions they must be on there period, that always went over well when I used to say that to my X. Of course Mexicans will love the ads where trump calls them drug smugglers, rapist and murderers. What was that scenario Druff was saying about a possible trump win in the general election?

[opalockafats]

I'm usually not one to post links to infowars but this is from Drudges homepage and it's pretty interesting.
Apparently this guy Alex Jones routinely interviews is a Trump insider. He has some incredible stories of the establishment trying to stop Trump. If true there's many juicy nuggets in this interview.

Video of interview in link, this guy legit?
The establishment is freaking out so I'm not ruling it out.
http://www.infowars.com/breaking-ins...to-stop-trump/

Would Trump still be in the lead if everyone except Rubio dropped out of the race?

If Trump does well Tuesday this thing is over.

Regarding everyone dropping from the race except Rubio.....Trump expands his lead. Cruz voters aren't going to Rubio because they hate him. Carson's voters hate Rubio and Jeb Bush's voters hate Rubio. Now if everyone dropped out except Cruz and Trump then we'd have a closer race only because Texas has a lot of delegates and Cruz will likely take that state. HOWEVER, Trump still wins.

I hope he picks Kasich for VP honestly. They take Ohio and Trump will take Florida in the general. The west coast of Florida is about as red as they come so that isn't an issue. Where the Republicans lose Florida is Palm Beach and Miami-Dade. These are primarily either inner city or NY/NJ transplants. Trump also has a large presence in this part of Florida due to the multiple golf courses and resorts he owns. In other words they love Trump in Florida. Inner city will not show up this cycle like they did for Obama. Plus it's clear people are coming out of the wordwork to vote this cycle due to the record numbers in the primaries. This will only expand come the general. I predict he takes Florida by atleast 3 points in the finals.

Pooh your analysis on Fla was almost correct, you just forgot about the 2 million in Broward County that are mostly Democrats and Hillsborough county (Tampa, st.pete) went for bush but then swung to Obama, I think Hilary wins Fla, only Hispanics voting Trump are Cubans, and there getting younger and not as Republican as the older Cubans.

[BetCheckBet]

Nothing appears to stick to Trump at this point. Ranging on fanatical.

Waiting for Trump to say "I could have sex with a little boy and still not lose support" then rise 2 points in the polls.

[Pooh]

If Trump does well Tuesday this thing is over.

Regarding everyone dropping from the race except Rubio.....Trump expands his lead. Cruz voters aren't going to Rubio because they hate him. Carson's voters hate Rubio and Jeb Bush's voters hate Rubio. Now if everyone dropped out except Cruz and Trump then we'd have a closer race only because Texas has a lot of delegates and Cruz will likely take that state. HOWEVER, Trump still wins.

I hope he picks Kasich for VP honestly. They take Ohio and Trump will take Florida in the general. The west coast of Florida is about as red as they come so that isn't an issue. Where the Republicans lose Florida is Palm Beach and Miami-Dade. These are primarily either inner city or NY/NJ transplants. Trump also has a large presence in this part of Florida due to the multiple golf courses and resorts he owns. In other words they love Trump in Florida. Inner city will not show up this cycle like they did for Obama. Plus it's clear people are coming out of the wordwork to vote this cycle due to the record numbers in the primaries. This will only expand come the general. I predict he takes Florida by atleast 3 points in the finals.

Pooh your analysis on Fla was almost correct, you just forgot about the 2 million in Broward County that are mostly Democrats and Hillsborough county (Tampa, st.pete) went for bush but then swung to Obama, I think Hilary wins Fla, only Hispanics voting Trump are Cubans, and there getting younger and not as Republican as the older Cubans.

He's got like three hotels in Broward county. What's your point? Hilsborough sure. Mostly inner city folks there. They aren't coming out to vote like they did past two elections imo. Manatee to Collier is all red. Forget about Tampa and Orlando, it will come down to Palm Beach, Miami and Broward. He doesn't even need to win those, just not get his ass kicked like the Republican has in the past.

[hongkonger]

Pooh your analysis on Fla was almost correct, you just forgot about the 2 million in Broward County that are mostly Democrats and Hillsborough county (Tampa, st.pete) went for bush but then swung to Obama, I think Hilary wins Fla, only Hispanics voting Trump are Cubans, and there getting younger and not as Republican as the older Cubans.

He's got like three hotels in Broward county. What's your point? Hilsborough sure. Mostly inner city folks there. They aren't coming out to vote like they did past two elections imo. Manatee to Collier is all red. Forget about Tampa and Orlando, it will come down to Palm Beach, Miami and Broward. He doesn't even need to win those, just not get his ass kicked like the Republican has in the past.

Black people loooooooooove the Clintons. I think turnout will be high.

I'm no Hillary fan, but she is going to slaughter Trump.

[4Dragons]

He's got like three hotels in Broward county. What's your point? Hilsborough sure. Mostly inner city folks there. They aren't coming out to vote like they did past two elections imo. Manatee to Collier is all red. Forget about Tampa and Orlando, it will come down to Palm Beach, Miami and Broward. He doesn't even need to win those, just not get his ass kicked like the Republican has in the past.

Black people loooooooooove the Clintons. I think turnout will be high.

I'm no Hillary fan, but she is going to slaughter Trump.

It will be pretty funny when Rubio loses his own State. He'll need to take a long sip of water after that one.

[Dan Druff]

So I made an account on PredictIt.com to legally bet on these primaries.

I would be glad to illegally bet it, but Bovada doesn't seem to be carrying these.

PredictIt lets you deposit for free (they'll also give you a $25 deposit match bonus if you e-mail and ask them), but a 5% withdrawal fee.

Here are the prices on Super Tuesday on each favorite:

Repub
Texas: Cruz -669
Virginia: Trump -1566
Georgia: Trump -1900
Minn: Trump -285
Oklahoma: Trump -567
Mass: Trump -3233
Alabama: Trump -2400
Arkansas: Trump -567
Tennessee: Trump -1900
Alaska: Trump -733
Vermomt: Trump -1150


Dem
Vermont: Sanders -9900
Tennessee: Clinton -9900
Alabama: Clinton -9900
Georgia: Clinton -9900
Texas: Clinton -9900
Virginia: Clinton -9900
Arkansas: Clinton -9900
Minnesota: Clinton -300
Oklahoma: Clinton -435
Mass: Clinton -454
Colorado: Clinton -233

I have bolded all of the races where I think there is value (and where it's worth betting -- meaning no -9900 crap). Note that the bolded race does NOT mean I advocate betting the favorite -- just that the race itself has value (see below for comments).

The big frontrunners have remained pretty true to the polls so far. There has only been one real upset, and that was Cruz beating Trump in Iowa. But in that case, Trump was only ahead 5 points going into election day.

Super Tuesday is just 2 days away, so I don't see much change occurring at this point.

Republican analysis:

There is very scant polling for the GOP Minnesota race. However, the last poll I've seen there (albeit one from late January) shows that it's a statistical tie between Trump, Rubio, and Cruz! Amazingly, Cruz is +2400 and Rubio is +213. Definitely will be loading up on Cruz and Rubio in this one -- basically going with "Not Trump" and hoping Cruz pulls off a miracle.

In Oklahoma, Trump is leading by 5-8 points in recent polls, but you can get both Cruz and Rubio for +1150. I kind of like Cruz for value here, because Oklahoma is next to Texas, and there is a lot of crossover culture between the states. However, I will probably also throw some on Rubio, since he's overall the stronger candidate at the moment. I do want to point out that I'm expecting Trump to win this, so I'm not going to go too hard, but I it's hard to pass up +1150 for the other two.

Arkansas is a good one. There is scant polling there, but Cruz is shown AHEAD in the latest poll there (Feb 4): http://heavy.com/news/2016/02/latest...esday-primary/ In this poll, Cruz has 27, Trump and Rubio are tied at 23. Despite this, Cruz is +488 and Rubio is +1900. Going to load up hard on both of them. I think Cruz will win this one OUTRIGHT.

Alaska is yet another state with scant polling. Last poll was on January 12, and Trump was leading 28-24 over Cruz. Rubio was way behind (9%) and seems to have little shot there. Cruz is +900, and Rubio is +3233. Believe it or not, Rubio may still be of poor value at +3233, but I may throw a little on him anyway, since there have been no polls in 1 1/2 months. Cruz at +900 is a very strong buy. However, my gut feeling is that Trump wins this state.

While I think Trump will easily win the rest where he is a big favorite, there is either too little return to bother, or in the case of Vermont (-1150), not enough poll data to be 100% confident on backing him. However, the -1150 bet on Trump in Vermont probably has decent value, because I just don't see any upsets there.

On the Democratic side:

Minnesota again has poor polling data, but there appears to be huge value on Hillary here at -300. The last poll (January 20) put her a staggering 34 points ahead! I will load up big time on her.

Oklahoma is too tough to handicap. The polls are all over the place, but it seems like Hillary will likely win. However, it's not likely enough to lay the -435 price on her, nor do I want to back Sanders, who has never shown up ahead in a poll there. I'll skip this one.

Massachusetts is a great value play on Sanders. You can get +270 on him, yet he is in a statistical tie with Hillary right now, and in fact was ahead by 7 in a poll on 2/16. I also think he will get a boost by Mass' proximity to Vermont, where Bernie is from (and where he may beat Hillary by over 75 points!)

There is scant polling in Colorado, but according to this article, Sanders was leading by 6 in a poll about two weeks ago. I can't throw all of my support on Sanders based upon one poll, and it's important to know that Sanders was getting CRUSHED back in November in the only other poll done. But November and February are quite different (especially for Sanders, who gained steam in 2016). Sanders is +170 at the moment. I will lay some on him, but won't go too hard.

[sonatine]

Ghosting your Cruz/Ark bet I think.

[Dan Druff]

I should note that PredictIt involves buying "shares" from other users.

So I sucked up all of the shares I liked on the candidates mentioned above (before I made the post, obv), so the prices aren't quite as good at the time of this writing.

[sonatine]

I made plays on the field (against Trump) in states where abortion is illegal.

[big dick]

So I made an account on PredictIt.com to legally bet on these primaries.

I would be glad to illegally bet it, but Bovada doesn't seem to be carrying these.

PredictIt lets you deposit for free (they'll also give you a $25 deposit match bonus if you e-mail and ask them), but a 5% withdrawal fee.

Here are the prices on Super Tuesday on each favorite:

Repub
Texas: Cruz -669
Virginia: Trump -1566
Georgia: Trump -1900
Minn: Trump -285
Oklahoma: Trump -567
Mass: Trump -3233
Alabama: Trump -2400
Arkansas: Trump -567
Tennessee: Trump -1900
Alaska: Trump -733
Vermomt: Trump -1150


Dem
Vermont: Sanders -9900
Tennessee: Clinton -9900
Alabama: Clinton -9900
Georgia: Clinton -9900
Texas: Clinton -9900
Virginia: Clinton -9900
Arkansas: Clinton -9900
Minnesota: Clinton -300
Oklahoma: Clinton -435
Mass: Clinton -454
Colorado: Clinton -233

I have bolded all of the races where I think there is value (and where it's worth betting -- meaning no -9900 crap). Note that the bolded race does NOT mean I advocate betting the favorite -- just that the race itself has value (see below for comments).

The big frontrunners have remained pretty true to the polls so far. There has only been one real upset, and that was Cruz beating Trump in Iowa. But in that case, Trump was only ahead 5 points going into election day.

Super Tuesday is just 2 days away, so I don't see much change occurring at this point.

Republican analysis:

There is very scant polling for the GOP Minnesota race. However, the last poll I've seen there (albeit one from late January) shows that it's a statistical tie between Trump, Rubio, and Cruz! Amazingly, Cruz is +2400 and Rubio is +213. Definitely will be loading up on Cruz and Rubio in this one -- basically going with "Not Trump" and hoping Cruz pulls off a miracle.

In Oklahoma, Trump is leading by 5-8 points in recent polls, but you can get both Cruz and Rubio for +1150. I kind of like Cruz for value here, because Oklahoma is next to Texas, and there is a lot of crossover culture between the states. However, I will probably also throw some on Rubio, since he's overall the stronger candidate at the moment. I do want to point out that I'm expecting Trump to win this, so I'm not going to go too hard, but I it's hard to pass up +1150 for the other two.

Arkansas is a good one. There is scant polling there, but Cruz is shown AHEAD in the latest poll there (Feb 4): http://heavy.com/news/2016/02/latest...esday-primary/ In this poll, Cruz has 27, Trump and Rubio are tied at 23. Despite this, Cruz is +488 and Rubio is +1900. Going to load up hard on both of them. I think Cruz will win this one OUTRIGHT.

Alaska is yet another state with scant polling. Last poll was on January 12, and Trump was leading 28-24 over Cruz. Rubio was way behind (9%) and seems to have little shot there. Cruz is +900, and Rubio is +3233. Believe it or not, Rubio may still be of poor value at +3233, but I may throw a little on him anyway, since there have been no polls in 1 1/2 months. Cruz at +900 is a very strong buy. However, my gut feeling is that Trump wins this state.

While I think Trump will easily win the rest where he is a big favorite, there is either too little return to bother, or in the case of Vermont (-1150), not enough poll data to be 100% confident on backing him. However, the -1150 bet on Trump in Vermont probably has decent value, because I just don't see any upsets there.

On the Democratic side:

Minnesota again has poor polling data, but there appears to be huge value on Hillary here at -300. The last poll (January 20) put her a staggering 34 points ahead! I will load up big time on her.

Oklahoma is too tough to handicap. The polls are all over the place, but it seems like Hillary will likely win. However, it's not likely enough to lay the -435 price on her, nor do I want to back Sanders, who has never shown up ahead in a poll there. I'll skip this one.

Massachusetts is a great value play on Sanders. You can get +270 on him, yet he is in a statistical tie with Hillary right now, and in fact was ahead by 7 in a poll on 2/16. I also think he will get a boost by Mass' proximity to Vermont, where Bernie is from (and where he may beat Hillary by over 75 points!)

There is scant polling in Colorado, but according to this article, Sanders was leading by 6 in a poll about two weeks ago. I can't throw all of my support on Sanders based upon one poll, and it's important to know that Sanders was getting CRUSHED back in November in the only other poll done. But November and February are quite different (especially for Sanders, who gained steam in 2016). Sanders is +170 at the moment. I will lay some on him, but won't go too hard.

You won't be doing much legal gambling if that peice of shit Rubio gets in office... gambles for a living yet supports Rubio.

[abrown83]

Druff



You can just buy Trump No shares instead of buying Yes of Rubio and Cruz.

[Dan Druff]

Druff



You can just buy Trump No shares instead of buying Yes of Rubio and Cruz.

Whoops. Didn't think of that.

Actually in some cases I wouldn't have done that anyway, because I bought disproportionate shares of Rubio and Cruz.