*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[jsearles22]

If Carolina were to end up Playing Denver do you think the line would be 3 or 3.5?

I got a book that's posting 3..... Might be a deal.

I think it might be higher than 3, even up to 5 or 6 honestly

[Daly]

I think Daly posted something about this. Did they go 8-0? EDIT: only Sea/CAR didn't hit the under that hardly counts..
My first book wouldn't take teasers on playoff games, until like 10 15 years ago.
Not sure if that was the norm and the industry changed or that was his rule only.



NFL teasers deal Vegas sportsbooks a huge loss

https://t.co/6K7AX1lNbg

Teasers did so much damage to Las Vegas sportsbooks this weekend that there were grumblings from beat-up bookmakers about eliminating the increasingly popular form of parlay bet.

.....15 of the possible 16 winning six-point teaser combinations hit .......

This is a puff piece for the casino industry. They love stories like this, because they encourage gamblers to take their shot for this "free money" on largely -EV bets.

The day of the +EV NFL teaser is over. It's sad, because I did very well with these, though I jumped on board in just the final few years it was viable.

NFL teasers are only a decent bet if the 6-point tease crosses the line of 3 AND 7 points (since these are the most common NFL score differences). So if you tease from -8 to -2, that's great. If you tease from +1.5 to +7.5, that's also great. If you tease from +8 to +14, that's a bad tease. If you tease from -16 to -10, again that's bad. If you tease from -3 to +3, that's also not good, though not quite as bad as the other two examples I just gave.

Secondary factors for teasing call for preferring to tease home favorites or road dogs (but within the parameters described above), avoiding teasing games with high totals, and avoiding teasing teams which tend to get blown out often.

But then there's the payouts. You need +180 for 3-teamers, +100 for 2-teamers, and +300 for 4-teamers. If you don't get those payouts (and you can't find this anymore at reputable books), then you're still -EV, even you tease-select perfectly.

Most people teasing NFL teams have no clue what they're doing, and this is a HUGE edge for the casino.

This piece is promoting that people who teased the games -- even the clueless ones -- beat Vegas for a lot of money. That's a fluke. They are not going to eliminate this lucrative bet for the casino, though.

Tell me more about this puff piece.....

"You can't bet NFL teasers at Caesars this weekend (h/t @ToddFuhrman) following a bloodbath for books last week."

[simpdog]

This is a puff piece for the casino industry. They love stories like this, because they encourage gamblers to take their shot for this "free money" on largely -EV bets.

The day of the +EV NFL teaser is over. It's sad, because I did very well with these, though I jumped on board in just the final few years it was viable.

NFL teasers are only a decent bet if the 6-point tease crosses the line of 3 AND 7 points (since these are the most common NFL score differences). So if you tease from -8 to -2, that's great. If you tease from +1.5 to +7.5, that's also great. If you tease from +8 to +14, that's a bad tease. If you tease from -16 to -10, again that's bad. If you tease from -3 to +3, that's also not good, though not quite as bad as the other two examples I just gave.

Secondary factors for teasing call for preferring to tease home favorites or road dogs (but within the parameters described above), avoiding teasing games with high totals, and avoiding teasing teams which tend to get blown out often.

But then there's the payouts. You need +180 for 3-teamers, +100 for 2-teamers, and +300 for 4-teamers. If you don't get those payouts (and you can't find this anymore at reputable books), then you're still -EV, even you tease-select perfectly.

Most people teasing NFL teams have no clue what they're doing, and this is a HUGE edge for the casino.

This piece is promoting that people who teased the games -- even the clueless ones -- beat Vegas for a lot of money. That's a fluke. They are not going to eliminate this lucrative bet for the casino, though.

Tell me more about this puff piece.....

"You can't bet NFL teasers at Caesars this weekend (h/t @ToddFuhrman) following a bloodbath for books last week."

Does this mean NE and Carolina are both going to win?

[Daly]

My honest take is Vegas is in a tough spot this weekend. I think the second they move the line to 3.5 on either game they are going to be awash in Denver/Arizona money and with all the NE/Car money they have already written they are going to be Fuct if either game ends on 3.....


I think it's very telling that the juice keeps moving up but the line hasn't moved. I think Vegas thinks these are going to be close FG type games.

[chinamaniac]

Tell me more about this puff piece.....

"You can't bet NFL teasers at Caesars this weekend (h/t @ToddFuhrman) following a bloodbath for books last week."

Does this mean NE and Carolina are both going to win?

Sharpest guy I talk to said All In on these

[TMMLK]

TMMLK $ TRUCK PICKS FOR THE CONFERENCE FINALS

ARIZONA +3
N.E -3

[Brittney Griner's Clit]

Been crushing the French Open tailing a few guys

Yulia Putintseva +150
Daria Gavrilova -110
David Goffin + 160

NBA

Pistons/Pelicans over 204 (placed last night)
Griz/Nuggets over 195.5
Spurs/Suns under 201.5 (Parker not playing and Suns whole team not playing will be a JV game) Spurs win 100-84
Cavs -3.5 FIRST HALF

CBB

Tennessee Martin +6
Washington State +5.5

[ThisGuyisWhat]

Do you think anybody on earth took ARK +3.5?

[BeerAndPoker]

Spurs are 30-13 ATS this year. They keep covering at -12 to -18 regularly.

I should probably just be blindly firing them until they cool off covering.

[Daly]

I'll perms ban myself if the Ducks lose to the capitals tonight. Absolute lock.

[big dick]

bold statement -

[NaturalBornHustler]

bold statement -

Not really since the game was cancelled.

[Dan Druff]

Attempting to middle with Lakers/San Antonio game.

Please note that I have been very cold lately before attempting to tail.

First half: Over 94 -115
Game: Under 198 -105

So you see what I'm trying to do. I think this is because SA seems to put up more points in the 2nd half, but this is a pretty big spread, as half of 198 is 99, not 94. Also, this game isn't likely to be close, so the 198 point total isn't factoring an OT possibility very much.

Also threw in Golden State/Indiana Over 217 just because they keep going over (as per my other post).

Would have also went with San Antonio -16, but they are back to back on the road, so not doing that one. The back-to-back-on-road thing is another reason I am firing the middle, because I think SA won't score as much as usual in 2H.

Good thing I didn't blindly fire Miami under today, as that is likely losing (even though Miami only has 52 points in the mid-3rd).

[BeerAndPoker]

I'd be interested to see how all teams fair in first quarter and half lines when they played the night before and their opponent didn't.

I'm not sure this gets tracked anywhere publically but anytime I watch the Pistons here being the local team they might crush a good team the night before then come out incredibly sluggish in the first quarter and half the next night even versus teams with .400 records.

[ThisGuyisWhat]

Very cold lately, Todd? Did I miss the hot streak? Nice post I bet Houston and LaC

[BeerAndPoker]

Curry just continues so amazing. He throws up a prayer from three quarter court away that he makes but was too late at the end of the 1st and then makes a 3 from beyond half court to end the second quarter.

[Dan Druff]

Well, the over half of my LAL/SAC won. Finished with 99 1st half points, and I needed 95 to win and 94 to tie. So that was very close to the ideal result (95 would have been ideal).

So basically I need 99 in the 2nd half to go 1-0, 98 or fewer to go 2-0, or otherwise I split that bet.

Golden State over looking fairly good after 1 half.

BTW, I mentioned a few days ago about blindly firing on Miami under, Spurs spread, and Golden State over. Since then, Miami is 2-0 on unders, Golden State is 1-0 on overs, and Spurs are 1-0 in spread.

And as I write this, Spurs are on pace to cover again (up by 13 in 3rd, line is 16) and Warriors are on pace to go over.

So that would be 6-0 if both of those come through. Sadly, I only bet on one of them (the Warriors over tonight).

[Dan Druff]

Well, Spurs and Lakers went off in the 3rd, so my under is dead. So looks like the middle is going to get a split. Sucks. I really liked where it was going after the first half.

And Warriors/Pacers has slowed down, and right now it's a tossup whether that covers.

[Daly]

This is a max bet no?

[jsearles22]

This is a max bet no?

You must be tied into the same network as me! Same format, different website.

Anyways I just checked and I have the same exact odds. I just max bet it. Insane