For all NCAA FB games in my database from 2000-2014 with closing spreads within a half point
- 3 ... 80 / 1539 = 5.2%
- 7 ... 57 / 1186 = 4.8%
On Pinny where it is possible to buy the 3 or the 7 in the same game, it varies by game which number they assign a higher probability to. Generally they seem to raise the relative value of of the 3 for higher totals.
As a blanket statement I will concede that the 3 is slightly more valuable in college football.
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