*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[big dick]

How are you reading my posts krypt? You cliamed im on your ignore list.No spine

[simpdog]

Thomas didn't bother trying on that last 3rd down pass either. What a chump.

[Hockey Guy]

Denver in a prevent defense. We all know what that means.

[big dick]

I never understood the fucking prevent. It doesn't prevent shit

[Hockey Guy]

Daly is God.

/thread

[simpdog]

Refs 1 Patriots 0

Gg Refs

[big dick]

BOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

[Hockey Guy]

Why did I bet on the Broncos

because you apparently like winning.

[big dick]

Osweiler IS GOD

[DRK Star]

Monmouth University from the coast of New Jersey


their Mens Hoops team has just beaten USC, UCLA (at UCLA), Drexel (at Drexel), and #17 Notre Dame


http://deadspin.com/nobody-in-sports...ium=socialflow

[rollinx420]

anyone got a link to those new haralabob interviews???


i remember reading on here about some new podcast he did but dont remember what thread and / or if its in this 2,000 page thread or not

TIA

[Dan Druff]

Disclaimer: I have lost 5 games in a row, dropping my once-impressive 16-10 record to a mediocre 16-15.

I like Golden State -8 at Utah tonight, as well as over 202 on the same game.

First off, Favors may or may not play.

Second, the Warriors are crushing every opponent, and while I sometimes shy away from lines like -15 (because trash time plays too much of a role in determining them), I like anything where they are favored by less than 10.

I like the over for two reasons. First off, Golden State just destroys opponents with fast-paced 3s, and therefore has an average point total of 116. In fact, in the past 9 games it's improved, scoring no fewer than 106 in any contest, and scoring at least 115 in 7 of those 9!

But what about Utah? While they are overall a low-scoring team, they have seen higher scoring games in the past 4. In all four of those contests, Utah either scored or gave up 100.

So I really believe we will be seeing more than 202 points here.

Bovada's line is worse than elsewhere on this one (over 202 -105, whereas it's 201.5 -110 at most other books, and -8 -115 where it's -8 -105/-110 at other books), but whatever. I'm taking it anyway.

BTW, for those of you wondering, yes, Bovada still has 2 sets of lines. It's just not as pronounced as last year. Right now the "general" line on the game is -8.5 -110, whereas the "sharp" line (which I get) is -8 -115.

[Dan Druff]

Also I like OKC -2 at Atlanta. The Hawks have looked terrible lately, and the Thunder are ascending, especially behind Durant's excellent play (and he's back, after an absence of several games).

Unfortunately Bovada has -2.5 -105 right now, which is annoying. (It's -2.5 -110 for the general public, too!)

I think I will wait this one out, because 2.5 and 2 are a pretty big difference.

Edit: Well, I took the -2.5 -105 anyway, seeing that the line is trending in the OKC direction on all major books. And Bovada has already degraded the line for the non-sharps to -2.5 -115.

[jsearles22]

Disclaimer: I have lost 5 games in a row, dropping my once-impressive 16-10 record to a mediocre 16-15.

I like Golden State -8 at Utah tonight, as well as over 202 on the same game.

First off, Favors may or may not play.

Second, the Warriors are crushing every opponent, and while I sometimes shy away from lines like -15 (because trash time plays too much of a role in determining them), I like anything where they are favored by less than 10.

I like the over for two reasons. First off, Golden State just destroys opponents with fast-paced 3s, and therefore has an average point total of 116. In fact, in the past 9 games it's improved, scoring no fewer than 106 in any contest, and scoring at least 115 in 7 of those 9!

But what about Utah? While they are overall a low-scoring team, they have seen higher scoring games in the past 4. In all four of those contests, Utah either scored or gave up 100.

So I really believe we will be seeing more than 202 points here.

Bovada's line is worse than elsewhere on this one (over 202 -105, whereas it's 201.5 -110 at most other books, and -8 -115 where it's -8 -105/-110 at other books), but whatever. I'm taking it anyway.

BTW, for those of you wondering, yes, Bovada still has 2 sets of lines. It's just not as pronounced as last year. Right now the "general" line on the game is -8.5 -110, whereas the "sharp" line (which I get) is -8 -115.

Non trolling honest question- why do you get the sharp lines when you're an admitted 50/50 break even bettor (actually lose with juice)? I thought the entire concept of game lines was getting 50% on each side and the book is a gauranteed winner. You have been the epitome of 50/50 on your posted NBA bets. It seems you're implying you're better than average. What am I missing?

[Dan Druff]

Disclaimer: I have lost 5 games in a row, dropping my once-impressive 16-10 record to a mediocre 16-15.

I like Golden State -8 at Utah tonight, as well as over 202 on the same game.

First off, Favors may or may not play.

Second, the Warriors are crushing every opponent, and while I sometimes shy away from lines like -15 (because trash time plays too much of a role in determining them), I like anything where they are favored by less than 10.

I like the over for two reasons. First off, Golden State just destroys opponents with fast-paced 3s, and therefore has an average point total of 116. In fact, in the past 9 games it's improved, scoring no fewer than 106 in any contest, and scoring at least 115 in 7 of those 9!

But what about Utah? While they are overall a low-scoring team, they have seen higher scoring games in the past 4. In all four of those contests, Utah either scored or gave up 100.

So I really believe we will be seeing more than 202 points here.

Bovada's line is worse than elsewhere on this one (over 202 -105, whereas it's 201.5 -110 at most other books, and -8 -115 where it's -8 -105/-110 at other books), but whatever. I'm taking it anyway.

BTW, for those of you wondering, yes, Bovada still has 2 sets of lines. It's just not as pronounced as last year. Right now the "general" line on the game is -8.5 -110, whereas the "sharp" line (which I get) is -8 -115.

Non trolling honest question- why do you get the sharp lines when you're an admitted 50/50 break even bettor (actually lose with juice)? I thought the entire concept of game lines was getting 50% on each side and the book is a gauranteed winner. You have been the epitome of 50/50 on your posted NBA bets. It seems you're implying you're better than average. What am I missing?

I am not implying anything.

Bovada has two sets of lines.

The "square" lines are given to most of their customers. You can see them without any account here: https://sports.bovada.lv/basketball/nba

These lines assume that most casual bettors prefer favorites and overs, so they artificially stack the line worse in those directions. I have noticed this season that they aren't really doing this much for over/unders anymore, but last year it was happening a lot. They are still worsening lines for many favorites, though.

However, obviously this is exploitable if you bet the other way, so they transfer you to the "sharp" lines if the computer witnesses you picking enough of them. This has nothing to do with you winning or losing, but rather your betting habits.

In reality, the "sharp" lines are closer to the lines given at Vegas books, whereas the square ones are skewed on purpose in order to beat the typical sportsbetting fish even more.

Laughably, if you call Bovada and ask them about the above, they will deny 2 sets of lines exist. If you offer to send them proof, they will say they aren't interested in seeing it, and attempt to end the call.

[jsearles22]

Non trolling honest question- why do you get the sharp lines when you're an admitted 50/50 break even bettor (actually lose with juice)? I thought the entire concept of game lines was getting 50% on each side and the book is a gauranteed winner. You have been the epitome of 50/50 on your posted NBA bets. It seems you're implying you're better than average. What am I missing?

I am not implying anything.

Bovada has two sets of lines.

The "square" lines are given to most of their customers. You can see them without any account here: https://sports.bovada.lv/basketball/nba

These lines assume that most casual bettors prefer favorites and overs, so they artificially stack the line worse in those directions. I have noticed this season that they aren't really doing this much for over/unders anymore, but last year it was happening a lot. They are still worsening lines for many favorites, though.

However, obviously this is exploitable if you bet the other way, so they transfer you to the "sharp" lines if the computer witnesses you picking enough of them. This has nothing to do with you winning or losing, but rather your betting habits.

In reality, the "sharp" lines are closer to the lines given at Vegas books, whereas the square ones are skewed on purpose in order to beat the typical sportsbetting fish even more.

Laughably, if you call Bovada and ask them about the above, they will deny 2 sets of lines exist. If you offer to send them proof, they will say they aren't interested in seeing it, and attempt to end the call.

Got it. The concept is dogs and unders probably have a little bit of value, until you get identified?

[Dan Druff]

I am not implying anything.

Bovada has two sets of lines.

The "square" lines are given to most of their customers. You can see them without any account here: https://sports.bovada.lv/basketball/nba

These lines assume that most casual bettors prefer favorites and overs, so they artificially stack the line worse in those directions. I have noticed this season that they aren't really doing this much for over/unders anymore, but last year it was happening a lot. They are still worsening lines for many favorites, though.

However, obviously this is exploitable if you bet the other way, so they transfer you to the "sharp" lines if the computer witnesses you picking enough of them. This has nothing to do with you winning or losing, but rather your betting habits.

In reality, the "sharp" lines are closer to the lines given at Vegas books, whereas the square ones are skewed on purpose in order to beat the typical sportsbetting fish even more.

Laughably, if you call Bovada and ask them about the above, they will deny 2 sets of lines exist. If you offer to send them proof, they will say they aren't interested in seeing it, and attempt to end the call.

Got it. The concept is dogs and unders probably have a little bit of value, until you get identified?

Yes. Though as I said, I'm not really seeing it with unders anymore.

This is why it's not a bad thing to also have a Bovada account with money, just in case you want to bet a dog and find a better line than you will elsewhere.

I still really would like to find a reliable online sportsbook other than 5 Dimes or Heritage. I really don't like using Bovada and often getting inferior lines (or the high juice in the live betting).

[cmoney]

Osweiler IS GOD

Agreed but I had no business winning this

[big dick]

Whats up with this browns/ravens game tonight?

[handicapme]

Whats up with this browns/ravens game tonight?

took the browns at -2.5 early on in the week... seeing ravens at +5.5 now, may buy back and just play for the middle.

I like crowell over 32.5yrds but was waiting for daly to post something