Quote Originally Posted by blueodum View Post
Druff did a good job breaking this down in other thread explaining that really only a few events mattered (low entry). The big question was trying to calculate Ivey and Daniel's ROI. All they really needed was to be 2-3 times (ROI 100-200) to make it an easy profitable bet for them. If they were 15x more likely this bet is like -1000 for them.
ROI is not relevant. Ability to win is.
Correct but ROI is used to estimate ability to win as they are highly correlated. If you assume even distribution of finishing place ROI of 100% equals twice as likely to win tournament. If you assume that top players have a more negatively skewed finishing distribution (which I believe) then ROI of 100% means they have roughly a 2.2 more chance than average player.