Probably being nitpicky here but if the number of events played is an unknown except that they both will play, how is this not a parlay bet for each subsequent tourney entry loss?
Probably being nitpicky here but if the number of events played is an unknown except that they both will play, how is this not a parlay bet for each subsequent tourney entry loss?
I forgot to list system.out.println who sent me $250.
That makes the bet $7500 (if DN accepts the modified amount). If not, I will just give system.out.println his $250 bet and take that out of the $1000 I was betting (making my bet $750).
DN accepted the modification.
We are now betting an even $7500.
I figured, I was having lunch with people I didn't want to be with at the time and needed an escape.
Jason Koon led out for 2,000 on a flop of {4-Diamonds}{6-Diamonds}{3-Spades}, Daniel Negreanu raised to 6,000 and Koon made the call.
The turn was the {10-Diamonds}, Koon led out again - this time for 8,500 - and Negreanu raised again. Kid Poker bumped the action to 20,500 and Koon came over the top, putting out 35,000 in pink T5,000 chips.
"Not a good card for me," Negreanu sighed, mucking. "I definitely had you before that."
"Really?" Koon asked.
"Yes - I could still be ahead!" Negreanu chuckled.
Jason Koon 116,000 41,000
Daniel Negreanu 47,000 -28,000
Ivey chip count 67,000
-Allergic to the struggle
As expected, both Negreanu and Ivey are playing in Event #2, the $25k Mixed Max NLHE event.
The event got 131 runners (so, imo my original estimate of 60:1 for each of them seems very generous).
They both survived day 1 of this four day tournament. Negreanu is the short stack at his Day 2 six-handed table with 61,300 chips. Ivey is faring a bit better. He has 203,100 chips, 17th place overall, and second at his table to Daniel Cates who is two to his left with 317k chips. Ivey's table starts out five handed and looks like it might be the first in the breaking order (if they go highest number to lowest).
You want lots of sweats.
The more you all sweat the fewer events DN and Ivey play.
Good interview with Negreanu about his childhood and gambling:
The Daniel Negreanu Story - Family Life and Childhood Dreams
Evelyn Ng
“That wasn’t one of my best moments, and a while later we met again during a poker game, I had another one of my juicy teenage moments. We were playing $10/$20 limit hold’em in a private game. I was up $2,000, which was a huge win, and she was stuck about $2,000 and getting buried. Then there was a valuable lesson I learned, as we spoke about just playing hard against each other even though we knew each other. I bet the river in a pot and she folded, after which I showed a bluff,” Negreanu laughed in the most evil way possible, “So she left to go to the bathroom and we could all hear her breaking things in there, and when I saw her again later she kicked me in the shins. So that was a valuable lesson in poker, that when you’re dating someone and you bluff them, don’t rub it in their face,” Negreanu said.
http://igaming.org/poker/news/the-da...ldhood-dreams/
So EmpireMaker2 apparently doesn't like our bet.
Stealthmunk, who lists his name as "Sealswithclubs Pro" on Twitter agrees:Blake @EmpireMaker2 3h
If you bet against Ivey/DN in this bracelet bet you have brain damage and got hustled hard. I had them around -160 crazy they got even odds
SealsWithClubs Pro @stealthmunk 3h
I'm convinced the people that bet against @RealKidPoker and @philivey don't even have faintest idea how or even tried to calculate the odds.
So it's too late now, but let's look at the realistic odds.
First, we need to drop all of the large-field events from the equation. The chance of Ivey or DN winning those is tiny, so it's not worth calculating. I'm talking about the plethora of $1000 and $1500 NL events. They will likely miss many of these events, anyway, as they interfere with the smaller-field, big-buyin events. I'm also talking about the Main Event.
Their best shot comes at the One Drop, which will have the smallest field.
Their second-best shots will come at the $10k-$50k events (aside from the Main). Those fields will probably be fewer than 200 people in most cases.
Their third-best shot will come at the less popular non-NL-holdem events, where the fields will be in the hundreds.
First, we need to calculate their chances based upon last year's fields, and start by assuming that both are average players. They're much better than average, but let's calculate them as average and adjust later.
For simplicity, we will define an "average" player as one whose ability does not help or hurt him in the field. So an average player would have a 1% chance of winning a tournament with 100 entries. (This isn't always true, as it depends how much of a skill gap there really is between the average player and the best/worst ones against him, but let's assume this for argument's sake.)
Here are the relevant tournaments:
Event #2: Mixed Max No-Limit Hold'em $25k - 131 players (2014)
Event #5: Limit 2-7 Triple Draw Lowball $10k
Event #7: Seven Card Razz $1500
Event #10: Limit Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better $10k
Event #13: No-Limit 2-7 Draw Lowball $10k
Event #16: Limit 2-7 Triple Draw Lowball $1500
Event #18: Seven Card Razz $10k
Event #22: H.O.R.S.E. $10k
Event #24: No-Limit Hold'em Six Handed $5k
Event #25: Omaha/Seven Card Stud Hi-Low Split-8 or Better $2500
Event #28: Pot-Limit Hold'em $10k
Event #30: Seven Card Stud Hi-Low 8-or Better $1500
Event #35: No-Limit Hold'em Eight Handed $5000
Event #36: No-Limit 2-7 Draw Lowball $1500
Event #38: Seven Card Stud Hi-Low Split-8 or Better $10k
Event #40: Heads Up No-Limit Hold'em $10k
Event #41: Dealer's Choice Six-Handed $1500
Event #42: Pot-Limit Omaha Six Handed $5k
Event #43: Limit Hold'em $1500
Event #44: The Poker Players Championship $50k
Event #50: Eight Game Mix $1500
Event #52: Limit Hold'em $10k
Event #54: Pot-Limit Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better $3k
Event #57: The Big One for One Drop $1m
Event #59: Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better $3k
Event #61: Seven Card Stud $10k
Event #64: Pot-Limit Omaha $10k
Color scale:
Purple represents an expected field of fewer than 100
Blue represents an expected field of 100-199
Green represents an expected field of 200-299
Red represents an expected field of 300-499
Orange represents an expected field of 500-799
There are 2 purple events.
There are 8 blue events.
There are 3 green events.
There are 9 red events.
There are 5 orange events.
As a rough average, we will assume 150 players in blue events, 250 in green events, 400 in red events, and 600 in orange events (since more tend to be closer to 500 than 799). We will ignore purple for the moment.
That gives an average player the following win percentages:
Blue: 0.67%
Green: 0.40%
Red: 0.25%
Orange: 0.17%
Mutiplying out the number of events:
Blue: 0.67% * 8 = 5.33%
Green: 0.40% * 3 = 1.20%
Red: 0.25% * 9 = 2.25%
Orange: 0.17% * 5 = 0.85%
TOTAL = 9.63%
So this gives an average player a 9.63% chance to win at least one of the above schedule events, EXCLUDING the two "purple" ones.
Now let's look at the purple events.
The One Drop has 35 confirmed players at the moment, and can have a maximum of 56. In 2012, it had 48. (There was no $1m event in 2013.) Let's assume 40 will play this year, though that estimate might be conservative.
An average player in that event would have a 2.5% chance of winning.
The other purple event is $10000 NL 2-7 Lowball. This event had 101 players in 2012, and didn't run in 2013. A limit version of the event drew 87 runners in 2013. Let's assume we get 90 for this event, which I think is a good guess. An average player in that one has a 1.11% chance of winning.
So an average player in the two purple events has a 3.61% chance of winning.
Adding that to 9.63% from above gives a grand total of 13.24%.
Doubling that number (since there are two players) gives a total of 26.48% for either player to win a bracelet in the above schedule.
So it looks like we have the best of it by far, right?
Not so fast.
Negreanu and Ivey are far better than average players (especially Ivey), so they obviously get a bump-up. But how large? Are they collectively twice as likely to win a bracelet as the average player in those fields? Perhaps in the medium-field (orange/red) events, but definitely not in the smaller field ones.
The smaller field events are mostly filled by specialists. Yes, you have a few players there with no clue, but you also have a lot of really good players. Negreanu/Ivey's edge over the good players is small, and may actually be nonexistent in certain niche events.
To understand what edge you should give Negreanu or Ivey, let's look at the markup being done for players selling pieces.
I am selling mine mostly at around a 20% markup. This 20% markup is due to the fact that I am only playing events either with a lot of amateurs (the large-field NL donkaments) or in limit hold 'em, where I specialize. If Ivey and Negreanu were selling pieces of themselves, what would be a fair markup, if you ignore the "star factor" which would artificially push up the price? Would you think a 40% markup on Ivey would be a good deal? What about 60%? I think both would be a terrible deal. Ivey is great, but I don't know anyone worth 40% markup in a tough or moderately-tough field. But let's say both are worth 50% markup, which they aren't.
If you multiply 26.48% by 1.5, you still only get 39.72%.
And that's still not enough to be a 50-50 bet on their side.
Now, I will concede that they will play other events not listed above (the bigger field ones), and possibly manage to bink one of them. It's not likely, but it's possible. But it's not a significant percentage, and there's no way that's enough of a factor to consider unless the above calculations were really close.
I just did all of this quickly with a calculator, so if I made a mistake, please correct me.
But I like our side on this based upon what I have figured out.
Polarizing = Phil Ivey
KPR16: hey
Polarizing: hey
Polarizing: fly back today
Polarizing: dont worry
KPR16: i wanted to confirm that my bet was just 2:1 on you
KPR16: not negreanu also
Polarizing: no jus me
Polarizing: jus me
KPR16: ok thats what i thought
Polarizing: i think im going to win something this year
KPR16:
Polarizing: some years i feel it
KPR16: hope you didnt use all your run good vs me
Polarizing: lol
Polarizing: ok flying back in 30 min. gl this summer
cmoney :It would be nice if Mexico could simply get human feces out of its drinking water
TBH All the numbers do give me a headache, Bottom line it is hard to win any tournament and throw in the fact we have no "REAL" online poker and the rest of the world has improved a ton since black friday playing countless numbers of hands per day, I believe they have passed U.S players in skill level because of this. I expect to see the R.O.W players make a big showing in Vegas this year.
-Allergic to the struggle
Daniel Negreanu @RealKidPoker 25m
Busted the $25k WSOP event JJ vs Kevin Song's AK suited. Flop Ace. Will be entering the $1k PLO shortly
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