Anti-DN/Ivey pool?

[SrslySirius]

Average field size at the 2013 WSOP was 1,281. It will probably be bigger this year, but let's be conservative and assume it's the same.

Average field size is deceptive. Sure, the NLH tourneys will always have well over a thousand runners, but the stud games, the mixed games, PLH, those are way more likely to go off with 150-300 runners, none of them even sniffing 1K runners.

Admittedly, I did forget that the 10k events are coming back, so perhaps the average field size will get smaller. But I can't imagine it will be by a huge amount.

EDIT: Corrected. You're right, it's not the best way of looking at it. Perhaps I should estimate the field sizes of the small events, calc the chances of winning those events, and add that probability to that of winning the larger field events.

EDIT 2: Then again, we can't exactly estimate his edge as being massive against those pro-heavy fields. That first probability is probably in the neighborhood of 10%.