Let's go back a bit in recent history.

Recall the prediction that Texas would flip blue by 2024? It wasn't outlandish. In fact, I also believed this, circa 2014.

But in real 2024, Trump almost won by 14 points. So what was the difference between theory and reality?

Trump developed a new coalition -- one which previous Republicans had failed to establish for my entire lifetime. He made inroads with Hispanic and black men (especially Hispanic), and achieved better numbers in those demographics of any Republican candidate since I've been alive.

Trump basically crushed with men and the working class, no matter what the race. His core support came with white working class and rural men, but he wouldn't have won without the minority support. That's why he did so well in Texas. Despite increased numbers of Hispanics there, it had no chance of going blue.

Had Trump not arisen to power in the GOP, it would have been different. They were headed for demographic hell without him, given the higher rate of population increase for Hispanics compared to whites. That was Trump's biggest medium-term contribution to the GOP, and it's rarely discussed.



Now let's get back to the present.

If the GOP embraces people like Fuentes, they lose these gains. You think the black and Hispanic support for the GOP was bad pre-Trump? Wait until you see it in an era where the GOP is defined by bigoted Fuentes types. Furthermore, they won't pick up many whites to replace them. Most of the types who would like Fuentes are already voting Republican anyway.

Some on the left or center might enjoy Fuentes because he's outrageous and funny, but deep down they would never support any candidate or party who believes what he does.

If you want to ruin the Republicans' gains with minorities, then support all of these alt-right types who are trying to take over the GOP.

If you want to ruin the Republicans' gains with working class whites, then support Trump's tariffs and various corrupt dealings.



Trump and the GOP had a good formula going, and even though they stumbled in 2020 a bit, this was more of a result of COVID upheaval than major systemic problems within the party. Indeed, despite Biden's victory, Republicans did very well downballot, aside from the Georgia Senate fiasco.

Now this has all of the makings of a major midterm beatdown -- perhaps the worst one we've seen since 1994 (where the Republicans enjoyed the benefit).

If you want to see Republicans implode and let the Democrats completely take over, support guys like Fuentes.