Theory behind Satoshi Nakamoto's $100 billion bitcoin wallet, untouched since 2010?

[Dan Druff]

Mysterious bitcoin creator "Satoshi Nakamoto", who may or may not be Japanese (most think he isn't), has a wallet with approximately 1.1 million bitcoin.

Even with the recent crash, his wallet is worth about $100 billion. Perhaps it's worth less if liquidated, as doing so would cause a crash and reduce the value. In fact, that wallet being activated at all and liquidating, even slowly, would likely cause a crash.

But let's ignore that. The bottom line is that the wallet hasn't been touched in over 15 years. Is someone that committed to the anonymity bit, to where they're leaving $100 billion on the table?

At this point, that's getting hard to believe.

Nobody has gotten a handle on the identity on Satoshi. There have been a number of theories, but all of them come with contradictory evidence. All of the accused Satoshis have denied it, aside from Craig Wright, who is believed to be a fraud.

So who is it, and why aren't they touching that mega-valuable wallet, which would make them among the world's richest men?

My theory is that one of three things happened:

1) Satoshi lost access to the wallet, and it can't be recovered in any way
-or-
2) Satoshi purposely trashed access to the wallet back in 2010, long before realizing what it could be worth one day
-or-
3) Satoshi is dead, and nobody knows who he is, and therefore nobody will ever access it or figure out his identity


One rarely discussed possibility was Len Sassaman. Len had the technical ability to create bitcoin, was obsessed with cryptography, and was very big on information privacy.

Unfortunately, Sassaman also suffered from severe depression. In July 2011, he killed himself at the age of 31.

If Sassman was Satoshi, it would explain why he hasn't touched the wallet all this time. Bitcoin was worth around $17/each in July 2011, having risen from well under a dollar in early 2011, hit a peak of $29, and then was on its way down. It's very possible that Sassaman was just going to ride this out, especially figuring that attempting to cash out might either give away his identity, or cause bitcoin itself to further crash. Then he had a severe wave of depression, killed himself, and the wallet died with him.

I still think death is the most likely explanation as to why Satoshi never touched the wallet. Second most likely was that Satoshi was a group of people, who agreed to destroy access to the wallet in 2010 -- a time when 1.1 million bitcoin were not worth big money.

[tigerpiper]

He has to be dead.

If it was a group project, one of the group would have squeeled by now.

If a single person lost the key, they'd have wanted to dig up the dump like that English kid.

Is this the biggest buried treasure in the history of humanity? Has to be.

You think scammers are trying to separate you from your gelt- think how many people are working on this.

Nice writeup Druff.

[CryptoNinja]

It was probably Hal Finney.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hal_Fi...ter_scientist)

[Sanlmar]

The theory about the two gamers Satoshi & Nakomoto and the coin involved in their game that had a similar appearance. The two game designers move to Mesa Arizona where Hal Finney lived

This is a random video but it lays out the plot and characters.

It’s been ages since I’ve thought about the origin story.

[CryptoNinja]

The theory about the two gamers Satoshi & Nakomoto and the coin involved in their game that had a similar appearance. The two game designers move to Mesa Arizona where Hal Finney lived

This is a random video but it lays out the plot and characters.

It’s been ages since I’ve thought about the origin story.

That’s probably the most likely to be true. I like to think it was Grigori Perelman and he could be the richest man in the world and he just doesn’t care. Solving the double spend problem was a very big deal and way beyond my understanding of mathematics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grigori_Perelman

[Sanlmar]

The theory about the two gamers Satoshi & Nakomoto and the coin involved in their game that had a similar appearance. The two game designers move to Mesa Arizona where Hal Finney lived

This is a random video but it lays out the plot and characters.

It’s been ages since I’ve thought about the origin story.

That’s probably the most likely to be true. I like to think it was Grigori Perelman and he could be the richest man in the world and he just doesn’t care. Solving the double spend problem was a very big deal and way beyond my understanding of mathematics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grigori_Perelman

I collected two prizes today on PFA and this is the second.

Turned down the Fields Medal and Millennium Prize ($1m). His shoes have holes in them. Cult hero for the yute. Love it.

Can’t find any link to bitcoin.

[CryptoNinja]

“Can’t find any link to Bitcoin.”

Exactly.

[Dan Druff]

It was probably Hal Finney.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hal_Fi...ter_scientist)

Finney is one of those with some counter evidence against him being its creator.

There are many elements which point to Finney:

- He received the first bitcoin transaction ever, which came from Satoshi

- He lived in Temple City, CA, where a Dorian Satoshi Nakamoto also lived (who was later incorrectly accused of being bitcoin's creator, by Newsweek)

- Finney's writing style was thought to be similar to the forum posts by Satoshi

- Finney died in 2014, which could partially explain why the bitcoin could never be touched



However, the counter evidence:

- There is no evidence that Finney ever knew Dorian Satoshi Nakamoto, so it wouldn't explain where he got the name, even if they lived in the same city.

- Emails were found between Finney and Satoshi which authentically appear to be two different people talking to each other, and they're dated from way before bitcoin was a phenomenon.

- Finney was struggling to pay medical bills for his expensive ALS treatments, the disease which eventually killed him. He was near broke in 2013, and it doesn't make sense that he'd have left his wife with almost nothing upon his death, given the treasure trove of bitcoin he had. Finney claimed to have used almost all of his bitcoin to pay for his treatments by 2013.

- He made a bitcointalk post in 2013, explaining he was nearly paralyzed, and frankly stating that he had only loosely followed bitcoin's progress since batting ALS, only noticing in late 2010 that it had gained monetary value. Finney seemed to know he was near death and was talking honestly with the community. It's unlikely he would have been so detached from his creation (to not know it gained monetary value until 2010) if he were Satoshi.

- Satoshi used a lot of spellings and terms common in the UK.

- Satoshi seemed to reliably sleep between 9pm and 3am Pacific Time. These would be odd hours for a married man in his 50s to keep, and there was no evidence that Finney strictly kept to these sleeping hours.

[NickyPipes]

It’s very obviously Bryant Mycon

How else did he pay for that fancy lawyer?

Also, is the way he was able to pay that lawyer because he had the money in bitcoin? And the feds could not seize it? As I am aware that usually when Feds kick in your door they also freeze your assets, did they not freeze his assets?

[Krypt]

I looked up a pic of ol Len and im convinced

[Checkshovinu]

LOL Micon - isn't he one of those BTC legends? I remember him talking about having a bunch back in like 2011, and then the SWC thing...assuming he had/has a ton.

[Dan Druff]

LOL Micon - isn't he one of those BTC legends? I remember him talking about having a bunch back in like 2011, and then the SWC thing...assuming he had/has a ton.

Not sure who you are, but you must be newer to the community.

Micon was the original founder of Neverwinpoker (NWP), a forum community which began in 2004, which was the predecessor to a number of subsequent sites serving basically that same community. PFA is one of them, and has been the primary active one since 2012.

NWP was originally supposed to be just a fan site for his friend Dustin Woolf, but I showed up and turned it into something different, and it became more of a free speech alternative to forums like 2+2.

Micon and I eventually moved on to found a site called Donkdown to replace NWP, but we had a falling out in 2011, and went our separate ways. He got into bitcoin in early 2011, one of the early adopters. That's why he's well known as a bitcoin guy, though he had nothing to do with the development or proliferation of bitcoin itself. He was just there early and advocated for it, before anyone else in poker knew what it was.

He was the face of SWC starting in 2011. He joined into it after it had already been created. He's erroneously believed by many to have created SWC, but he was more of just the marketing guy. He was the only one to get busted for it, as he was the only non-anonymous person associated with it. He eventually got a sweetheart deal thanks to hiring good attorneys who "work miracles" in Vegas, and therefore spent a few hours in jail, and the rest on probation.

He does have a lot of money these days as a result of crypto, but the story of that is far more complex than most realize. I won't bother going into it.

I don't really want this to become a Micon discussion, but I knew someone would bring his name up because of the subject matter.

That's the short answer. Welcome to PFA, whoever you are.

[zealanddonk]

Mysterious bitcoin creator "Satoshi Nakamoto", who may or may not be Japanese (most think he isn't), has a wallet with approximately 1.1 million bitcoin.

Even with the recent crash, his wallet is worth about $100 billion. Perhaps it's worth less if liquidated, as doing so would cause a crash and reduce the value. In fact, that wallet being activated at all and liquidating, even slowly, would likely cause a crash.

But let's ignore that. The bottom line is that the wallet hasn't been touched in over 15 years. Is someone that committed to the anonymity bit, to where they're leaving $100 billion on the table?

At this point, that's getting hard to believe.

Nobody has gotten a handle on the identity on Satoshi. There have been a number of theories, but all of them come with contradictory evidence. All of the accused Satoshis have denied it, aside from Craig Wright, who is believed to be a fraud.

So who is it, and why aren't they touching that mega-valuable wallet, which would make them among the world's richest men?

My theory is that one of three things happened:

1) Satoshi lost access to the wallet, and it can't be recovered in any way
-or-
2) Satoshi purposely trashed access to the wallet back in 2010, long before realizing what it could be worth one day
-or-
3) Satoshi is dead, and nobody knows who he is, and therefore nobody will ever access it or figure out his identity


One rarely discussed possibility was Len Sassaman. Len had the technical ability to create bitcoin, was obsessed with cryptography, and was very big on information privacy.

Unfortunately, Sassaman also suffered from severe depression. In July 2011, he killed himself at the age of 31.

If Sassman was Satoshi, it would explain why he hasn't touched the wallet all this time. Bitcoin was worth around $17/each in July 2011, having risen from well under a dollar in early 2011, hit a peak of $29, and then was on its way down. It's very possible that Sassaman was just going to ride this out, especially figuring that attempting to cash out might either give away his identity, or cause bitcoin itself to further crash. Then he had a severe wave of depression, killed himself, and the wallet died with him.

I still think death is the most likely explanation as to why Satoshi never touched the wallet. Second most likely was that Satoshi was a group of people, who agreed to destroy access to the wallet in 2010 -- a time when 1.1 million bitcoin were not worth big money.

Option 4: In jail (and waiting for his brother with a very elaborate tattoo on his back to get put in the same prison)

[Dan Druff]

Who are you referring to, regarding being in jail?

On a side note, Ross Ulbricht was pardoned in January 2025. This pardon was very well received in the crypto community, but I didn't like it.

What bothered me the most wasn't the "drug dealing" allegations. From what I could tell, Ulbricht just ran Silk Road and let people do what they wanted, which isn't the same as being an actual drug dealer. For that he was oversentenced.

However, he actually tried to have someone murdered, which never gets enough attention. Ulbricht hired someone for like $20k, which he sent in BTC, to commit the murder. Why didn't anyone die? He was actually hiring a scammer, who took the bitcoin and ran off. Therefore, no one was ever physically harmed, and Ulbricht chalked it up to being gullible and moved on. Since there was no actual attempt on anyone's life, the government seemed to let this go.

However, had he hired a real hitman instead of a scammer, that intended victim would likely be dead now. It was just his "luck" that he hired a scammer and then gave up.

For that reason, he will never be any kind of sympathetic figure to me.

[The Icon]

It’s very obviously Bryant Mycon

How else did he pay for that fancy lawyer?

Also, is the way he was able to pay that lawyer because he had the money in bitcoin? And the feds could not seize it? As I am aware that usually when Feds kick in your door they also freeze your assets, did they not freeze his assets?

It’s not me…..

Druff, can you flesh out for the lay person what happens if those bitcoins are just never accessed? Are their mere existence propping up the value or holding it down? Can no one or entity ever “delete” them for good and/or redistribute them?

[zealanddonk]

Who are you referring to, regarding being in jail?

On a side note, Ross Ulbricht was pardoned in January 2025. This pardon was very well received in the crypto community, but I didn't like it.

What bothered me the most wasn't the "drug dealing" allegations. From what I could tell, Ulbricht just ran Silk Road and let people do what they wanted, which isn't the same as being an actual drug dealer. For that he was oversentenced.

However, he actually tried to have someone murdered, which never gets enough attention. Ulbricht hired someone for like $20k, which he sent in BTC, to commit the murder. Why didn't anyone die? He was actually hiring a scammer, who took the bitcoin and ran off. Therefore, no one was ever physically harmed, and Ulbricht chalked it up to being gullible and moved on. Since there was no actual attempt on anyone's life, the government seemed to let this go.

However, had he hired a real hitman instead of a scammer, that intended victim would likely be dead now. It was just his "luck" that he hired a scammer and then gave up.

For that reason, he will never be any kind of sympathetic figure to me.

You said theres 3 options: I suggest a 4th option that whoever the real Satoshi Nakamoto is, they could be in prison, rather than dead or other options outlined.


Seperately: I didnt expect a reference to a 2005 tv show going over your head.

[Dan Druff]

Who are you referring to, regarding being in jail?

On a side note, Ross Ulbricht was pardoned in January 2025. This pardon was very well received in the crypto community, but I didn't like it.

What bothered me the most wasn't the "drug dealing" allegations. From what I could tell, Ulbricht just ran Silk Road and let people do what they wanted, which isn't the same as being an actual drug dealer. For that he was oversentenced.

However, he actually tried to have someone murdered, which never gets enough attention. Ulbricht hired someone for like $20k, which he sent in BTC, to commit the murder. Why didn't anyone die? He was actually hiring a scammer, who took the bitcoin and ran off. Therefore, no one was ever physically harmed, and Ulbricht chalked it up to being gullible and moved on. Since there was no actual attempt on anyone's life, the government seemed to let this go.

However, had he hired a real hitman instead of a scammer, that intended victim would likely be dead now. It was just his "luck" that he hired a scammer and then gave up.

For that reason, he will never be any kind of sympathetic figure to me.

You said theres 3 options: I suggest a 4th option that whoever the real Satoshi Nakamoto is, they could be in prison, rather than dead or other options outlined.


Seperately: I didnt expect a reference to a 2005 tv show going over your head.

You're forgetting how old I am.

If it were a reference to a 1985 TV show, there's an extremely high chance I would have gotten it.

[Cerveza Fria]

Satoshi Nakomoto was murdered back in 1988 by criminal mastermind Hans Gruber, during an attempt to steal $640 million in bearer bonds. Gruber was eventually himself killed by NY police officer John McClane. Gruber also went by the alias "Bill Clay".

[garrett]

I've always assumed Hal Finney was Satoshi Nakamoto and because of ALS then dying he never actually did attach himself to the Bitcoin (except the first transaction) like he could or would have eventually. His wife (still alive..) would know a lot but, having received the first ever Transaction so the 'Test' transaction. Likely means it was him just because of ALS and then dying meant, he never did or could attach himself to the Bitcoin. And that was way before its now meteoric rise in value,. Makes sense Satoshi Nakamoto was more then likely Hal Finney.