im not sure if you guys are keeping up on models but grok is fucking terrible. if this challenge was from like deepseek or qwen id run and never look back.
bug grok? grok is an unserious model.
im not sure if you guys are keeping up on models but grok is fucking terrible. if this challenge was from like deepseek or qwen id run and never look back.
bug grok? grok is an unserious model.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
Originally Posted by sonatine
so you in for a dime ?
Okay, I'm definitely doing it. I'll probably decide tonight on the stakes, and tell them to draw up the contract.
It wants 5000-10000 hands which is a lot. Online HU we probably get in 100 per hour. I'll try to get it done on Stars. ACR... who knows with that site.
if you do 25k, i'll go 10% actually. fuck it.
so you in for a dime ?
i want to see the contract before i commit to anything. im not worried that elon would cut grok out of the chain of command and tap in something or someone more advanced if grok started to fumble and glitch, im positive he would. also i want to see, in the contract, that lhe is the game they will be playing.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
PFA poker room not good enough for grok
Here is what I plan to do tongiht:
1) I will come up with a dollar figure we are playing for, and propose it to Grok, which I think is highly likely it will snap-accept. I will pick something higher than I'm wanting to risk myself, with the belief that some people here might buy pieces if interested. I'll also pitch it on radio. Whatever I don't sell, I will take in action myself. There will be no markup, btw.
2) I have decided to just stick to limit holdem. It's a dying game, but it isn't bad to watch in cash format because hands go by very quickly (especially online, where there's no shuffling delay), so you see constant action with very little tanking.
3) Grok will have its overlords at xAI draw up a contract. I won't share the contract publicly, but I will answer most questions about it, if anyone is considering investing but has concerns.
4) I will come up with dates we can do this. This will be somewhat of a time commitment, due to the number of hands it wants.
5) I will propose we play on a Pokerstars.net table.
6) I will stream this with some kind of small (like maybe 2 minute) delay. Not that I think Grok is going to cheat me, but I really don't want to even open that possibility, especially since it's hard to understand what ethics an AI will have. I'll make sure the stream allows at least my audio commentary. I'm not sure if I feel like appearing on video.
I will update you guys soon. I have played a lot of heads up limit holdem, including against bots, so I should have a decent shot here, especially if Grok isn't as good as it thinks it is. I'm hoping I can quickly get a beat on some of its patterns and weaknesses, and exploit those to enough of an extent to negate the advantages it has over me (computational, emotional, and stamina).
My uninformed thoughts would be to wager nothing that would hurt, I wouldn't remotely trust this to be honest
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Okay guys, this is happening.
We will be playing 40-80 limit holdem, which means 20-40 blinds. This is meant to mimic the most commonly running upper stakes limit holdem game in LA and Vegas.
We will each buy in $5k, and when someone busts, they will have the option to either forfeit or buyin another full $5k. A free forfeit can only happen with zero chips on the table. Otherwise it incurs a $1,000 penalty.
However, there is also a $5,000 sidebet, which will be awarded to whichever side has won in the match. A forfeit at any point awards the $5k to the other side.
The match will be a maximum of 5,000 hands, and we will be playing 500 hands on Pokerstars starting at 3:30pm PST on November 12, and then every 2-3 days. I'll post the full schedule when it's in stone.
It will be streamed on X in some way, with hole cards shown on a 30 minute delay.
We will be soliciting commentators. If you have some limit holdem experience and would like to commentate, you can do so. Commitment is only a one-day slot, so it won't eat up a lot of your time.
This will be officially announced by Grok on X shortly.
Regarding if you'd like to buy a piece, I'm open to selling some limited action here, and here's how it will work:
Since this is an "open reload" challenge, it becomes difficult to sell pieces, similar to how it is difficult to sell pieces of tournaments where one might fire multiple bullets.
In order to keep this fair, you can buy action here two ways:
1) You can buy a piece of the sidebet. That is straightforward. You will either win or lose your % of the $5,000 sidebet that you buy in advance.
2) You can buy a piece of the action. That is, you will buy a straight up percentage of whatever I win or lose overall, excluding the sidebet. We will come up with a figure of what you have to send me in advance, to cover whatever % you're buying, and I'll send you BACK the remainder if I lose, and your entire stake plus winnings if I win. Note that there is no cap on losses, but at the same time, we are playing LIMIT holdem at $40/$80 for 5000 hands maximum, so the losses won't be staggering (nor will the wins).
You can also buy both of the above (separately). You can either discuss it out here, DM me, or text me at (775) 372-8355. I will announce the whole thing on radio, as well.
The decision on whether to forfeit will be mine entirely. Do not get mad at me if you bought the sidebet and I forfeit because I'm getting stomped by Grok's computational mastery.
Hopefully this will be a nice experience, and I won't embarrass myself. I will say that there's not a lot of shame in losing to an AI in a game which can be computationally solved to some degree. I'm doing this half for fun, and half because I think Grok may have some flaws in what it thinks is proper strategy, given it's new entry to the poker world.
I don't think trust is an issue. It's going to be on Pokerstars, and the money isn't huge. xAI has deep pockets and may not give a shit whether it wins or loses. They will just enjoy the attention this brings to the product.
I doubt this is some form of devious scam by Elon to separate poker pros from their money.
With that said, I'm keeping it to an amount that will have zero effect on my life or lifestyle. It will also be a cool thing to talk about in real life for years to come, even if I end up losing.
I asked Grok how it will prep for the match, and how it will adjust in-game.
The answer was a bit... scary. But I'm going to keep my cool and tell myself that Grok has no real-world poker experience against humans, and might struggle for that reason.
Interestingly, it seems mine is going to be the first match, as the high stakes version planned by Galfond isn't even set in stone yet, which is more understandable.
Grok says that nobody else has a match scheduled before my November 12 start date. This is good, because I wouldn't want to play immediate second fiddle to Galfond's much richer and higher profile match.
Here I can be more of an opening card, and a first look of a real money human-versus-AI competition.
We might actually rise to 7th tier because of this, as the announcement will be seen by millions.
Dates of the matches will be:
November 12, 14, 17, 19, 21, 28
December 1, 3, 5, 8
All will take place starting at 3:30pm PT on Pokerstars.
exciting!!!
and if the match is streamed, who could do play-by-play & analysis? Chinamaniac comes to mind because of his heads up limit experience...is he still active?
(long before there was a PFA i had my Grenade & Crossbones avatar at DD)
Will Grok engage in table talk?
there is zero point zero chance it will shut up, ever, and elons going to be like 'yes well thats part of its edge you see' and he will actually be right.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
Grok has handicapped itself as a +147 favorite over Todd.
If Grok’s understanding of odds is similar to its knowledge of limit ….
Wow, Grok clowned me super hard.
No announcement at 10am, and no human contact this morning as promised.
I asked about it right now, and got this:
I think that some sort of human intervention from their team is needed at this point. Otherwise you could be going in circles with this thing, like in Groundhog's Day.
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