Phil Galfond is going to play Grok at PLO for $1 million. An offer is on the table for me to play Grok, in a game of my choice. Should I?

[Dan Druff]

Elon made a post related to poker, make reference to Grok being the best AI at the game:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1983441208287605114


This led to someone saying it should play Galfond, and Grok confidently bragging it would be a big favorite against him, despite Galfond's well known mastery of PLO:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/grok/status/1983604236522050044



Galfond caught wind of this, and said he'd love the challenge, proposing a $1m bet on it:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/grok/status/1983725239529042348

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/grok/status/1983726455277416722




I was skeptical Grok could agree to such things, but apparently it has been granted the authority to make offers to poker pros on behalf of xAI, which would be backing Grok's action:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/grok/status/1983894139835130148



Interesting, huh?

Well, that made me curious about something...

[Dan Druff]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/grok/status/1983999840884555908

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/grok/status/1984006057447059463




However, there is no way to DM Grok. I tried just asking going to the Grok menu item on X and asking it there. Indeed, that's what it meant and we continued the conversation.

I told Grok that I'd prefer limit holdem, but might be down for O8 or PLO8. I mentioned that I don't have anywhere near a million bucks to budget to risk on this (and to be honest, I would feel guilty if I raised money like that from others and then lost).

This is what Grok proposed. Again, note that xAI would back this and presumably publicize it in some way, which would be fun.

[Dan Druff]

I didn't want to snap-accept this because I'm on the fence regarding which stakes I want to play.

I don't want them to be laughably small, because it would make me look pathetic and broke, especially compared to Galfond's mammoth $1m challenge.

However, I also don't want to torch money. I fear that the two limit games are too easy to computationally solve, and while PLO8 is a little tougher to computationally solve due to the pot limit aspect, I have less experience in that game, and wouldn't be as skilled as I would in the other two games.

I don't want to do NL Holdem because I don't play much NL cash, and there would be far better representatives from the community to play HUNLHE than I.

I would be a good representative for limit holdem, for obvious reasons, but I fear that a smart AI (with training) might be unbeatable.

On the plus side, I have a lot of experience playing limit holdem bots (both knowingly and unknowingly), and have picked up a lot of their tendencies and ways to exploit them. Still, when they play enough against humans, they can become unbeatable. My only shot is exploiting erroneous strategies it comes up with by attempting to play against itself. That's essentially what I did with the old Heads Up Holdem bot in the early 2010s, before it learned from everyone playing it and became impossible to beat.



So on one hand I'd enjoy the experience of being part of an event where I'm a poker pro facing off with Grok, but at the same time, I don't want to torch a lot of money because I think I'm probably still a dog.

Opinions? Anyone dumb enough to want to invest in this? Again, I haven't declared the stakes I want yet because I'm still deciding.

I told it to hang on, but I want to jump on this before other pros do it and the offer goes away.



Please no trolling or shitposting in this thread.

[Dan Druff]

I linked to this thread, as Grok requested.

Here's what it said regarding what I posted so far:

[Dan Druff]

Here's a May 2025 article from Nate Silver about ChatGPT completely botching analysis of a fictitious poker hand: https://www.natesilver.net/p/chatgpt...y-bad-at-poker

This is what I've observed from attempting to discuss poker strategy with Grok.

That's part of what made me want to play it. But I don't know... would Elon really want it playing top pros like Galfond if it's going to embarrassingly get crushed?

[Sanlmar]

Great brand building opportunity. Obviously coordinating sosh and streaming the event. You’re gonna need a stylist

[Sheesfaced]

Honestly Druff you were made for this. I get that limit hold’em is easier to solve but it’s your speciality so you should stick to that. Don’t worry about the size of the stakes. It’s a fun experiment; no one who matters is going to think you’re broke based on playing smaller stakes. Just buy in for what you’d be comfortable potentially losing.

[simpdog]

IMO you have nothing to lose Druff.

If you lose, we can chalk it up to AI and Limit Holdem being solved. As for stakes, I think just a symbolic $1000 is enough.


This is a test for AI, not for your skill.

[simpdog]

Great brand building opportunity. Obviously coordinating sosh and streaming the event. You’re gonna need a stylist

Drexel pre game show or post game? Or would he be on play by play?

[devidee]

You got this Druff.

[BCR]

You have to jump on this. If you win, they’ll tweak it, and it beats the all the next guys who try and you’re getting interviews for the next decade as the guy who beat Grok. Who knows if it’s beatable, but it seems there is some value to playing it as long as you don’t get hurt.

As others said, I’d stick to limit and hope it’s beatable. I’d play it at high enough stakes where it sounds high to novices and makes some media, because you’re going to know within an hour if you are drawing dead against it, and you can always opt out and say it’s too tough. No embarrassment in not being able to beat an AI. But it may be authorized to play higher if you start and it’s beatable and you want to raise the stakes.

[Kuntmissioner]

25K

[1dollarboxcar]

have Grok play here in the freeroll (if that's possible?) then when it wins, you can stiff the payment to it for like a year, like you normally do...

[Sanlmar]

Great brand building opportunity. Obviously coordinating sosh and streaming the event. You’re gonna need a stylist

Drexel pre game show or post game? Or would he be on play by play?

Drexel & PLOL come out of retirement. Our very own Bobby Riggs & Billy Jean King

Set up an exchange to swap action on Druff v Grok.

GoFundMe to get Druff a new shirt from Collars & Co.

[The Icon]

Grok must not have seen you spinning the chair cushion. He wouldn’t be so boisterous if he had.

You’ve gotta play him for a Main Event buy in at least. Would be the ultimate spin up story when you go on to FT

[sonatine]

druff this would likely be the easiest money you ever made. im being 100% serious.

[sonatine]

waiting for a polymarket line on elon being like 'ha ha ha but seriously no this is never happening'.

[Tellafriend]

this is really cool. you have to take this. like someone above said, you have to play for at least a me entry of $10k. depending on your jew roll, i suggest anywhere from 10k-100k, probably leaning 10-25k. offhand and w zero knowledge of how these machines have done, i will back you for 1k. l hope others would participate here.

as boring as i find lhe, i think you have to do that and if you are really good at any game other than nlhe, pick that one too for some variance. leave the nlhe to a crusher.


like bcr said, you should snap this off sooner than later bc by the time the weekend is over there will likely be many others trying to cash in on the fame.


let me know. also, see my pm i am about to send on an ancillary matter.

[gut]

I'm sure grok meant post game pepsi's

[Daly]

I would think as a bracelet holder you would be a welcome challenge and they would love to build a portfolio of bracelet winners that Grok has beat.

I cant speak to how easy/hard this would be. I would think at the min you wouldn't be giving up much of a edge, if at all, and it would come down to variance..

Id participate for the Lolz