Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Why would you tease down to -0.5?
Any teaser which doesn't cross both the 3 and 7 lines has a big house edge. I'm sure you know this, so I'm wondering why you did it.
being able to "just win" as opposed to "win by a touchdown" feels a lot better to people
So the nerds ran numbers and laying -120 makes this unprofitable (which is why nobody deals even money anymore).
If you determined to tease something this is textbook the spot to do so.
I think “big” is doing a lot of work in this statement. I doubt the house edge on a 6 point -110 teaser (which I still get) going from 6.5 to 0.5 is much worse than any other bet. Probably better than most. Definitely better than those player prop parlays you were posting for a while.
being able to "just win" as opposed to "win by a touchdown" feels a lot better to people
If I was really trying to only make +EV bets I would make 5 bets a week and still would probably lose. I make like 50 bets/week in football season. Obviously I am under no illusion this is +EV.
I haven’t run the math, but I doubt making teases with -7 and -6.5 favorites is actually that bad EV wise in the grand scheme.
I took browning int and Denver ML
Parlay -120
Jets over
Cinci under
Nothing strong strong, just the way the action would indicate
Daly's totals picks look like they're going 2-0 (most likely), as the Dolphins over squeaked by, and Denver is 24 points after 3.
Also looks like rollinx's teaser is going to win, but Jets were in danger of losing by over 9 before their final TD.
It was the Jets-on-the-road thing which was scaring me, because bad road teams have a higher "blowout potential", which you don't want in a teaser. The best teams to tease are ones which are more likely to play close to the spread.
rollinx, you're correct that it's hard to find any Wong teasers on Monday night! So as I said, this one wasn't horrible, it just wasn't ideal, and you really do want ideal if you're gonna pay -120.
To Kalam: I haven't calculated it myself, but I did a lot of Wong teasing back in the late 2000s and early 2010s, before the last few books ruined the +EV odds. In my reading on the matter, it was emphasized very strongly that any teaser which violates the "3 and the 7" rule has a large house edge -- worse than just your typical spread bet. This was back in the late 2000s when +100 on 2-team 6-pointers was common!
So while -110 is a nice line to get by today's standards, my belief is that you're getting royally fucked EV-wise by going from -6.5 to -0.5. I'm guessing your thinking was that you're almost getting an extra 0.5 because ties are so rare (and of course that game ended in a tie lol),. But you're just losing so much by not crossing the 7, it really kills the value. As I'm sure you know, there is a tremendous difference between -7.5, -7, and -6.5 in NFL lines.
I’m only posting this so Druff can afford parking and buy something nice like a corsage for Mary Hart
Dodgers series sweep +140.
I know. I tried and tried to find a way with Cinci.
I am kinda amazed people are still using Dodger reg season bullpen data. Sharp people too. This tipped the scales for me.
My people consider the Roki mechanics changes to be legit. The dweeb HAS pitched in big games prior to MLB. You aren’t gonna see the cast of Dodger bullpen losers that we have grown fond of. Not in 2 games. Dodgers know they are flawed and aren’t gonna trick fuck themselves with cutsie nonsense. They will break glass … cause ya know - emergency. They are flawed and they know it. That awareness is good.
Cinci can’t score.
I have other Dodger stuff but let me have my pride, ok?
Padres -102
If you haven’t been following Cubs then don’t bet it. You won’t appreciate the win the way you should.
Padres have moved against me 10 cents. Not good.
Let’s swap a couple letters from Padres and look at LAD Andy Pages vs Hunter Greene
3 for 5
3 XBH
3 HR
Pages HR +468 last night for lulz.
He’s been meh last 14 days. He has Puig’s brain and similar talent. Nostalgia bet. Viva Cuba!
Am I a ploppie thinking Boston or Yankees break out to push it over 6.5 runs?
Both teams have hit the opposing pitcher. But yes it's the playoffs and short series so it's all hands on deck.
do none of you baseball fags have a play for the rest of us degens? you know it's a tuesday w no football.
Best i got is favorite and under.do none of you baseball fags have a play for the rest of us degens? you know it's a tuesday w no football.
Of course the first three games have been favorite and under so.... what could go wrong
Thankfully didn't go with my ploppie instincts.
Are we really paying -290 on this game tonight?
Should I buy before it hits 3 or play the run line?
I sprinkled some run line last night at -119 but I just can’t @ -137. Maybe you can find it in your heart. I’d be more inclined to -2 alt RL @ -110.
Cincinnati will pitch EVERYONE tonight. That might suppress Dodger offense. All hands on deck. Dodgers are home too - traditionally not a RL spot but...
Dodgers ass bullpen hands pitched last night - that’s less ass. Unfortunately they have a bullpen with lotsa ass. They ought to practice bringing out Sheehan, Roki. That would be good but Dodgers aren’t sharp like that.
I did Dodgers F5 -1.5 -119 last night just to keep my index finger reps up. It’s -137 now. Ughhh
Forgive me but Dodgers playoffs is like my Yom Kippur. It’s a high holy season. Only we feasting not fasting.
I had other Dodger stuff last night.
My CLV has been incredible if I do say so. I have welfare PIKKIT so I might not have last months CLV stats. Lemme look
I can only get yesterday
I think the Red Sox +135 is a fine wager tonight.
sox are cooked… currently firing on the rams live ml
I took Michigan and over. Disaster.
Michigan insists on running it up the middle on 1st and 2nd down every series; and they never get any yards. So basically they are only playing offense one down every series, 3rd and long, which is not a recipe for success.
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