I did this because I had serious doubts about Seattle and moderate doubts about Tampa, so this was the week I chose to fade the chalk. I threw away my initial plan to do 3 Seattle and 2 Tampa tickets, which as I said, would've left me with 5/6 still alive.Originally Posted by Daly
Unfortunately I stuck with the wrong chalk (GB), which ironically I chose both because it seemed "safe" (so I'd still have 2 tickets if Tampa and Atlanta lost).
Definitely chip and a chair time.
I'll be honest. It feels like I'm out of Survivor already.
I went from being really excited about this season to feeling like I'm on the outside looking in.
But truthfully I have one ticket left, and anything can happen.
The one surviving ticket has used Arizona, Dallas, and Tampa. Sadly my Jax picks, which would have been nice to have behind me down the line, have died with tickets #4 & 5.
Still, I haven't used any particularly good team here, so that's the good news.
Here are the possible picks this week:
Buffalo (-14.5) vs New Orleans -- The Saints, expected to put up a fight against Seattle, didn't. This is probably the worst team in the NFL. I'll admit that I was on the Saints being bad a few years ago, long before it was cool to say so, but nowadays everyone knows. This is the "safe" pick if I want to be a ploppy and skate into week 5.
Detroit (-10.5) vs Cleveland -- The Lions gave me a nice underdog win to save my weekend betting-wise against the Ravens. They've redeemed themselves in many people's eyes. Using them, however, will remove the option to pick them agains the Vikings on Christmas (one of just 3 possible games to pick).
New England (-5.5) vs Carolina - The "fancy play" pick. The Pats have been all over the place thus far, and the Panthers have essentially been two teams -- horrendous for the first 1.5 games, and good for the past 1.5. Carolina could cause an upset here. If I had more than 1 ticket, I might fire 1 or 2 here, but I don't feel comfortable risking my entire tournament life on this shitty team at this point.
LA Chargers (-6.5) at NY Giants - The "better team on the road" pick which fucked 5 of my tickets last week!
Houston (-7.5) vs Tennessee - This one is a possibility, given that Tenn hasn't come particularly close to winning any game, and got stomped hard by the Colts. Houston, an inconsistent team, is at home and will probably win.
Denver (-7.5) vs Cincinnati (Monday) - Cincy got smacked super hard by the Vikings last week, and is going to be without Burrow for awhile. Denver is 1-2 but played both of their losses close.
Green Bay (-6.5) at Dallas - So much for the Packers being unstoppable, given their meltdown against a bad team last week, which cost me two tickets. This isn't the spot to use them, anyway.
I'll post my analysis in the next message.
Here's the betting at BetMGM as of yesterday:
https://twitter.com/BetMGMNews/status/1971560391827415294
The Bills were as high as -17 at some books, before falling to 14.5-15.5. It would be pretty shocking to see this one lose. They are without Milano and Oliver, however.
Houston is -7 at some books, -7.5 at others. There is a much bigger handle on the Texans compared to the % bet, which either indicates sharp money or just that the whales love Houston. This is generally a ploppy-looking selection, given the -7 line, the Texans' superiority, and the game being in Houston. Houston is 0-3 and their "best" game so far was against Tampa, where they blew it down the stretch anyway. At the end of the day, one team in this matchup will finally have a win.
The Chargers are very public all around -- both in bet % and handle. I am seeing some sharps indicating they like the Chargers. Chargers barely got by Denver last week despite being at home.
Denver is very similar to Houston, a home team with a touchdown plus spread with a big handle on that side, likely attracting a lot of ploppies.
Looking out into the future, if by some miracle I have one, the Bills will be at home against Cincy on Dec 7, and they'll be at home against New England next week. The 12/7 week looks sort of tough, with only the Bills and Packers looking like good selections.
Houston only has one real other usage -- 12/21 against the Raiders.
Chargers have few bad opponents left, and their main other good usage will be against the Raiders on 11/30,.
Denver have upcoming home games against the Jets, Giants, and Raiders.
I'm leaning Houston, as they've had three one-score losses, Ward isn't looking good, the Texans are at home, and their future value isn't very good, especially for the next 3 months.
Interestingly, the second-most bet dog moneyline at BetMGM as of yesterday was the Saints!
What do you guys think?
denver.
Chicago
Rare tie in the Cowboys/Packers game wipes out Circa Survivor entries on both sides. Ties lose in that contest!
Unfortunately, there were 0 Cowboys selections! How the mighty have fallen! But I'm glad that 478 Packers tickets died, as did 784 Chargers tickets.
Sadly Buffalo got by the Saints, despite being in a position to lose fairly late.
I went with the Texans, an 0-3 team against a shittier 0-3 team.
Texans had their usual shitty offense in the first half, but Tennessee's was even worse, missing two FG and otherwise not getting any closer to scoring. 6-0 at halftime, but Texans hung 20 more to easily blow out the shitty Titans, who are clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL. Ward has not worked out thus far.
Would be great if Broncos lose tomorrow.
https://twitter.com/CircaSports/status/1972178190299980115
The 6th and 7th most popular selections lost this week, accounting for 9.2% of the tickets. The 3rd most popular (Broncos) hasn't played yet. 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th most popular all won.
Wish I had more than 1 ticket, I would have put at least one on New England, which easily won over the Panthers. That was a good selection, but Texans was safer for me at this point, since I'm playing short stacked. It's not like Texans have a lot of future value, as it's not a good team, and I especially don't trust them on the road.
So far my remaining ticket has burned AZ/Dal/TB/Hou, so all of the upper echelon teams are still in my pocket. That's the good news. Many of the ploppies have already shot off Buffalo, KC, Baltimore, and/or Philly.
With your list of teams taken I would have Indy circled in werk 5
Yeah not a lot of choices for me this week.
With your list of teams taken I would have Indy circled in werk 5
Can't use Arizona, so it's down to Bills vs Patriots, Colts vs Raiders, Ravens vs Texans, Lions at Bengals, or Eagles vs Broncos.
There will be better spots for Eagles and Ravens, and I don't really want the Lions on the road when I can have them in better spots at home. So that leaves Colts or Bills, and I probably want Colts because the Patriots have shown flashes of competence.
I'll be watching how the betting markets go, though. If it seems like the sharp money is on the Raiders, I might change my mind.
Billy Walters could be on Vegas +6.5, it would still be your best bet. If the ML was way off then maybe you have something to worry about.Yeah not a lot of choices for me this week.
Can't use Arizona, so it's down to Bills vs Patriots, Colts vs Raiders, Ravens vs Texans, Lions at Bengals, or Eagles vs Broncos.
There will be better spots for Eagles and Ravens, and I don't really want the Lions on the road when I can have them in better spots at home. So that leaves Colts or Bills, and I probably want Colts because the Patriots have shown flashes of competence.
I'll be watching how the betting markets go, though. If it seems like the sharp money is on the Raiders, I might change my mind.
While the ML is important for deciding Survivor picks, often I've found in NFL that when sharps are all over a less-than-touchdown underdog, the favorite tends to be in much greater danger of losing OUTRIGHT. That's why you'll notice I rarely take the points in small-dog situations, and just go for the moneyline.Billy Walters could be on Vegas +6.5, it would still be your best bet. If the ML was way off then maybe you have something to worry about.
So if there's a lot of sharps on Vegas +6.5, it's going to give me pause regarding Colts +0 for my Survivor life.
Still, Bills doesn't seem like a great pick, both due to burning them early and the Patriots being a bit of an unknown at this point.
Will be interesting to see if the ploppies who burnt Buffalo in a prior week are going to be on the Colts, or if they're going to hammer Arizona. I'm guessing Arizona will be the big selection, though some have already used it. I'm guessing those who already used Arizona are more likely to go Colts than one of the top teams, as those are more likely to be the sharper players.
I could legit see Denver blowing it tonight. It would be great to finally see a major upset where my picks aren't involved.
So far there has been only one major upset (GB vs Cleveland) and three minor ones (Atlanta vs Carolina, Chargers vs Giants, and GB vs Dallas). I've had tickets for two of them, sadly.
While the ML is important for deciding Survivor picks, often I've found in NFL that when sharps are all over a less-than-touchdown underdog, the favorite tends to be in much greater danger of losing OUTRIGHT. That's why you'll notice I rarely take the points in small-dog situations, and just go for the moneyline.
So if there's a lot of sharps on Vegas +6.5, it's going to give me pause regarding Colts +0 for my Survivor life.
Still, Bills doesn't seem like a great pick, both due to burning them early and the Patriots being a bit of an unknown at this point.
Will be interesting to see if the ploppies who burnt Buffalo in a prior week are going to be on the Colts, or if they're going to hammer Arizona. I'm guessing Arizona will be the big selection, though some have already used it. I'm guessing those who already used Arizona are more likely to go Colts than one of the top teams, as those are more likely to be the sharper players.
I could legit see Denver blowing it tonight. It would be great to finally see a major upset where my picks aren't involved.
So far there has been only one major upset (GB vs Cleveland) and three minor ones (Atlanta vs Carolina, Chargers vs Giants, and GB vs Dallas). I've had tickets for two of them, sadly.
you think denver, at home and with their defense, is going to blow it versus a backup qb?
Whatever they are paying Burrow isn't enough. The guy is clearly injury prone, but just how good that guy has been on an otherwise trash team is largely overlooked.
Ja'Marr Chase has 15 yards tonight, last week he had 50. Are these receivers even that great or is it a Marvin Harrison situation where Manning makes his own hall of famers?
Tyreek’s knee is completely twisted off. Then he laughs like a maniac going off the field knowing he never has to play for Miami again
you think denver, at home and with their defense, is going to blow it versus a backup qb?
timely bump.
Wishful thinking.
timely bump.
Notice I didn’t bet Cincy.
But yeah, looks like Burrow pretty much is that team.
Finally some good Survivor news for me.
Rams lost tonight to the Purdy-less 49ers.
Circa does not release the selection totals until Saturday night, but it's estimated that 20-31% of tickets went on Rams.
I did not pick Rams, as you might have guessed.
The only other big favs this week are Arizona, Detroit, Buffalo, and Indy.
Buffalo is available only on 42% of the tickets. and Arizona is only available on 46.7% of the tickets. Detroit is available on 82.4%, and Indy is available on 92%. Rams were available on 89.2%.
Prior to tonight, about 1/3 of tickets had been eliminated.
This will push that number over half, but possibly as high as 63%.
https://twitter.com/BetMGMNews/status/1974100213301186678
Good news from the above regarding the Colts.
Raiders lost starting LT Kolton Miller to a high ankle sprain, so that should bring down their rushing game, which is one of the Colts' defensive weaknesses.
Should be a lot of points in this one, but notice from the above that the Raiders are NOT in the top 5 most bet underdog moneylines, which is always a good sign for Survivor.
Might be somewhat of a sweat, though, as it's expected this will be a high scoring game. Neither defense is particularly good.
Got Browns +3.5. Hope im wrong, or ideally Vikes win and dont cover.
But holy shit Vikings O Line is dead. Starting and backup center both out. Backup G Brandel starting at C, he has never played the position in an actual game, ever.
I'm staying away from the under 36.5 just cause turnovers.
https://twitter.com/CircaSports/status/1974645363723379079
Pretty shocked Buffalo only got 6.1%. I realize that 58% (not me) already used them, but wow. I'd have gone that way had I known it would be 6%.
I don't have a ton of confidence in them, though, and New England plays well in spurts, so who knows?
Rams at 28% was about what I expected to see.
Not sure why 13% are blowing their Lions pick. They must not be looking at Christmas.
The Buffalo pickers will feel like geniuses if Colts, Cardinals, and Lions lose. 87% of the field coming into this week would be knocked the fuck out.
Anyway, I'll be rooting for Arizona to be the shitty version of themselves this week. Go Indianapolis!
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