have you considered/looked at the Dallas vs. Chicago game... i don't see Chicago winning at home and still probably lose by 7-10... team is in shambles (Chicago)... nobody knows if they are coming or going, play calling is horrendous, they look like a confused high school team....
Yeah not good to use Dallas on the road at this point in the season.Originally Posted by 1dollarboxcar
Cowboys are only -1. Sharps are mixed on this one, from what I can see.
My .10 for whatever its worth
Tampa the money is dead even. Line opened at 7 and has fallen to 6.5. So your comment that "sharps are against Tampa" is correct..... but thats at 7 vs 6.5. There is a lot of "value" on or off that 7 in the eyes of the computers. I guess my point is there is still a lot of value in picking a team thats favored by 6.5. But... you are correct that its not valued that they are "a full TD favorite". A -7.5 fav is ~-400 and -6.5 is ~-300 on the ML. If i am holding off on Tampa its they have NO and Car twice left where they are a good play down the road.
Seattle was my pick earlier this week and still is. Opened at -7.5 Fav, $$ came in 73% on seattle and vegas said "all you can eat boys" and didn't move the line. There is no other week when you would want to use seattle the rest of the year. The only reason to not pick Seattle is everyone else should use them this week.
Atlanta Opened -3.5 57% of $$ came in and Vegas said whoa there fellas we are moving this to -5.5. Playing devils advocate the move from 3.5 to 5.5 in NFL is "only" worth ~.35/.45. Its not like you crossed 3 or 7. That said it is notable that they moved the line that much by mid week. Im 100% sure they got in action from people they respected. I can endorse this as a pick for sure. The only thing..... if this comes down to week 17 they got NO at home. They might have a lot to play for and NO, unless I miss my guess, will be thinking about drafting Arch Manning. Since thats the only other game you could burn them now.
Id go 4 Sea, 2 Atl and leave Tampa for a later week.
boooooooooooorring daly
Im not paid for excitement, Im paid for entertainment
Funny how different people think different things this week.
Daly likes Seattle and Atlanta, with Seattle being his favorite, and is kinda neutral on Tampa.
Another guy I talk to who plays Survivor HATES Tampa, loves Green Bay, and doesn't particularly like Seattle.
Websites I've been reading with Survivor analysis HATE Seattle, with many saying it has the highest upset chance this week. And of course Seattle is the chalkiest pick.
Here are the spread bet percentages (I'm assuming number of bets, not total money bet) directly from BOL:
SEA 79%
GB 84%
TB 77%
ATL 76%
Talk about chalk!!
However, BetMGM reports, as of yesterday, the following bet %/handle %:
SEA 36%/27%
GB 68%/56%
TB 59%/49%
ATL 61%/57%
And...
Seattle has gone from -7.5 to -7.
GB has drifted from -9 to -7.5
TB has gone from -7 to -6.5
Atl has jumped from -3.5 to -5.5, but did touch 6 before falling back
According to this, you'd think that Atlanta would be the best pick, but some of that jump has to be attributed to Carolina's injuries.
I agree that SEA and TB slipping that crucial half point along 7 is bad news, and gives me pause, especially seeing how public the betting has been on BOL so far on those sides. Daly, you should take a look again at the @BetMGMNews X account, because I think you have SEA betting percentages reversed.
This is tough.
The only one without red flags here is Atlanta, yet they're on the road.
Wow you are correct sir - i transposed the %% when i put that together. I still stand by them. Its still 7.
The early weeks are about building the highest amount of future pick equity for your entries. In week 13 you want Buff over New Orleans while the other guy is picking a team thats -2 on the road (this is an example).
There is no future value in Sea. There is some in both Atl and Tam and certainly in GB.
Could Sea lose tomorrow? Absolutely. Doesn't mean they were the wrong choice (So long as you agree with the above about building future pick equity).
NYJ +7
Det +5
Dallas ML
GL
why is there no cfb thread what are you even doing at this point danny dradles
calling todge danny dradles might be my greatest new invention
Despite the temptation of Sea with the big point spread (was back to 7.5) and lack of future value -- the reasons I loved it so much in the first place -- I put 0 of 6 tickets on it.
I've decided to fade them and root for an upset.
I went heavy on Atlanta this time. 3 of 6 tickets went to them. I put two on Green Bay (yes, yes, future value, but less than you'd think given their schedule), and one on Tampa -- a team I also don't like this week, but still prefer over Seattle, partially for field-thinning reasons.
I am hoping that most people who didn't already use Buffalo Thursday will use Seattle, and then Seattle will get upset.
I know I can't fade Carolina every single week (even though I've now done so), but I really feel they are going to struggle tomorrow, between the injuries and the fact that Atlanta has shown the ability to take advantage of poor defense. Also, Atlanta is the one potential Survivor pick which doesn't have red flags. The line moved to make them more of a favorite, the tickets/money discrepancy isn't big, they don't have major injuries, and the sharps/analysts aren't predicting an upset. I don't love the road and rivalry factors, but nothing's perfect.
I promised myself I wasn't going to just fire this year on the "obvious" picks, and this week Tampa and Seattle have a lot of compelling reasons to skip them. So I did 1/6 on Tampa, 0 on Seattle, and I'm hoping it all works out.
Sorry I have to root against you, Daly.
https://twitter.com/CircaSports/status/1969620652316639715
Over 39% on Seattle.
Half my tickets are on the Falcons, who were picked 7%. There's your non-chalk, Icon.
Gonna be an interesting morning.
BTW Jaxon Smith-Njigba is "questionable" for tomorrow.
I just watched the best half that I think I have ever seen from a defensive player. Isiah Rodgers is on one. 87 yard pick-6, 66 yard forced and recovered fumble for a TD, another forced fumble (on Chase, no less).
seahawks might actually rape no today
Comedy of errors with Atlanta today.
Some of the worst football I’ve seen in a long time.
Michael Penis is an embarrassment.
What sucks is I almost put one of the Falcons tickets on Indy.
dear god they had katrina not do them this bad
I can't believe what happened today.
Okay, so the Falcons were a bad pick. Funny enough, a lurker here texted me in Spanish at 12:30am that his simulations show me losing that one, but that he hoped he's wrong. Not sure who the guy is, but he was spot on. Not that it would have helped at 12:30am after my picks were submitted, but yeah, what a disaster. I won't claim this was a bad beat. Falcons just played terribly. They were also coached terribly. But look at these bizarre stats:
https://twitter.com/John_Mehaffey/status/1969858616451891575
The sad thing is that shortly before submitting, I thought, "Maybe I'm too Falcons heavy. The Panthers had a great second half last week", and I almost put one ticket on Indy. I talked myself out of it because there were better spots for them down the road.
Then I thought, "Well, at least Green Bay is a virtual lock. 10-0 late, and the Browns simply can't even get close to scoring. Packers defense way too good."
Then the Browns finally had a drive and kicked a FG. 10-3. But Packers had the ball with 3:18 left and a 7 point lead, so at worst they were going to OT, and it seemed very likely they'd win in regulation. Then Love threw an INT, and suddenly Cleveland was at the goal again, and scored shortly after.
But okay, that meant GB got the ball back with 3 mins left. 43-yard FG attempt with 27 seconds left, and... BLOCKED. Cleveland then got it close enough to take a 55-yard shot, and made it. Done.
Unbelievable.
But at least my Rams bet was going to win, right? They were up 26-7, and the Eagles looked pathetic. Philly chipped away at the lead, and got ahead 27-26. Rams had a 44-yard FG attempt with 3 seconds left, and.... BLOCKED!! Why does this keep happening? As an extra FU to spread bettors, it was then returned for a TD (I had moneyline so that part didn't matter... but ouch... +170 down the drain).
For good measure, Tampa, ahead of a bad Jets team 27-6 after 3 while at home, coughed up 2 TDs, but had the ball up 26-20 with 2 minutes left, in position to kick a 43-yard FG. BLOCKED AGAIN!! Returned for a TD to make it 27-26 Jets.
I fully expected my final Survivor ticket to lose when the Bucs moved the ball upfield for a final FG attempt. BLOCKED, right? Well, no... finally a critical FG for me wasn't blocked, and they squeaked by 39-36.
So I lost 5/6 Survivor picks -- two of which were lost in complete bullshit fashion, lost my +170 Rams underdog in complete bullshit fashion, lost Raiders and Patriots moneyline, and won the Indy spread pick.
Disaster.
Oh, and the Seahawks, the chalk I faded, are crushing.
This week I was a victim of fancy play syndrome. Recall that I was initially planning to do Seattle, Tampa, and maybe 1 other pick (probably would've been a single ticket on Atlanta), but I decided it was too public, so I mixed it up and I won 1 instead of 5.
I've got one ticket left but it feels like I'm already out.
"This week I was a victim of fancy play syndrome."
This is kind of where I was trying to go with you. You often give the advice to not get involved in big hands on day one of the main. Fairly good advice as the only time I played the main I got knocked out set over set on day one (We had Mexican after). Some small amount was already knocked out in weeks 1&2. On week 3 39% ended up on Seattle. You still have 61% of the field who took a less optimal road. Some did it because they playing 4D chess. Most have no clue. Lets try and outlast the 61% that took the last optimal road before trying to out maneuver the 39% who put together the "best pick".)
What you did is make a move to go for the kill. Eventually you will get down to a small amount of people and you will want to not pick chalk if its possible/likely that a majority will do the same. In week 14 you take 3-4 best team. The 90% left take best team and second best team and you effectively have a ML parlay on two dogs to turn 1K into some large % of 8M (or whatever the payout is this year). Problem is, you cant do that in week 3.
Point being you have to do what you did. You just did it too early.
You still got a chip and a chair and can absolutely still win this.
Early leans on week 4? Sign me up for Houston.
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