***Official*** MLB 2025 Thread

[BCR]

Casperius vs Alcantara tonight is gonna be fun. Casper won’t go long. I have Dodgers F3 RL ✅ and that is a first for me ever. Sprinkled F5 -0.5 +100 ✅ and F5 -1.5 +135 ✅for lulz too.

Dodgers F5 TT o2.5 ✅ was mildly attractive too.

@BCR

Winning an F3 run line has the potential to create a really bad habit.

DK really doesn’t allow me to list pitchers in derivative markets. I was married to those positions (happily). I feel very comfortable with my Dodgers knowledge so typically my risk is negligible.

The Dreyer news caused bleeding as I took F5 BTTS 2+ ❌. I expected Dave Roberts to run Dreyer til he failed. However, Roberts proved disciplined holding Dreyer to just one inning. I was wrong and it cost me some profit

Casper looked good. We will see how teams adjust to this new face.

I took that first five -1.5, but you got better number. I got it +123 late only because I looked at your bet for pitcher and remember them beating up Sandy the week before.


This Luis Ortiz is such a wildcard pitching for my tribe this afternoon. He can strike out 10 and be a killer or walk 3 guys and give up a GS. We have two of those right now with Gavin Williams. I haven’t watched that much of Washington, but I feel like their first 4 or 5 guys are fairly disciplined hitters. But the dude from Washington gives up a lot of homers, so probably end up staying away.

Got lucky on some special from my Sportsbook last night. Either Lindor or Soto needed to homer for +200. Saw Ryne pitching. He walked Soto twice on 4 pitches and Lindor wasn’t close and then hit a HR off reliever like 7th inning. Also caught Mets +140 live when down 1-0. Almost blew that, but held on. So his homer took me from bad day to quite good.

Of course the White Sox only score for Druff. They couldn’t score a run for me. Another L there.

[BCR]

Don’t we have to first 5 the Dodgers again on RL and HR prop Ohtani and Freeman? Quantrill has been dreadful.

[Dan Druff]

Don’t we have to first 5 the Dodgers again on RL and HR prop Ohtani and Freeman? Quantrill has been dreadful.

Despite what you've seen lately, Freeman is a contact hitter first and a power hitter second. Thus I've generally noticed that his HR come randomly, rather than in spurts like they do for streaky power hitters like Ohtani.

Shohei is basically always swinging for the seats, and in fact it was noted that he last had a non-HR RBI on April 16. Part of it is due to batting leadoff and having terrible 7-8-9 hitters in front of him, but part is also his high K rate and constant attempts to hit for power.

When Ohtani is going well, I like the HR props on him in general. Freeman I'd watch out.

But yes, Quantrill hasn't been good, and the Dodgers have generally smacked around Marlins pitching this year.

[1dollarboxcar]

Teoscar Hernandez is on the 10 day IL... groin/hamstring/abductor pull from yesterdays game....^^^

[BCR]

Don’t we have to first 5 the Dodgers again on RL and HR prop Ohtani and Freeman? Quantrill has been dreadful.

Despite what you've seen lately, Freeman is a contact hitter first and a power hitter second. Thus I've generally noticed that his HR come randomly, rather than in spurts like they do for streaky power hitters like Ohtani.

Shohei is basically always swinging for the seats, and in fact it was noted that he last had a non-HR RBI on April 16. Part of it is due to batting leadoff and having terrible 7-8-9 hitters in front of him, but part is also his high K rate and constant attempts to hit for power.

When Ohtani is going well, I like the HR props on him in general. Freeman I'd watch out.

But yes, Quantrill hasn't been good, and the Dodgers have generally smacked around Marlins pitching this year.

I hear you. All ready bet. One of either will work. I bet HR bets for a fraction.

Saw Teoscar go out last night. Had no idea it was hamstring injury. That sucks for him. He was hitting not just for power, but hitting everything.

[Sanlmar]

Don’t we have to first 5 the Dodgers again on RL and HR prop Ohtani and Freeman? Quantrill has been dreadful.

Dodger TT o5.5 seemed so free last night and then Teo fell. It even got to 6.5 with juice today

[Dan Druff]

Despite what you've seen lately, Freeman is a contact hitter first and a power hitter second. Thus I've generally noticed that his HR come randomly, rather than in spurts like they do for streaky power hitters like Ohtani.

Shohei is basically always swinging for the seats, and in fact it was noted that he last had a non-HR RBI on April 16. Part of it is due to batting leadoff and having terrible 7-8-9 hitters in front of him, but part is also his high K rate and constant attempts to hit for power.

When Ohtani is going well, I like the HR props on him in general. Freeman I'd watch out.

But yes, Quantrill hasn't been good, and the Dodgers have generally smacked around Marlins pitching this year.

I hear you. All ready bet. One of either will work. I bet HR bets for a fraction.

Saw Teoscar go out last night. Had no idea it was hamstring injury. That sucks for him. He was hitting not just for power, but hitting everything.

Double pain for me because he's also on one of my fantasy teams (for the second year in a row).

Teoscar is also a great clubhouse guy, which he can still be, but it's not the same when he's out of the lineup. It's "only" a grade 1 strain, so maybe he gets back quickly, but that lineup is a lot weaker without him in the middle.

Last year he took a 1-year deal, because he wanted to win a championship. Gotta respect that. Then the Dodgers somehow almost let him go (despite wasting money on multi-year deals for relievers), but finally grabbed him back anyway.

Expect Chris Taylor to get regular AB now, which would be good if it were 2017, but not so good today.

[Dan Druff]

Ok BCR I have egg on my face now regarding Freeman

[BCR]

Ok BCR I have egg on my face now regarding Freeman

I was happy when you said it. I knew it was true. San said it about Teoscar a week ago and math lols.

I was pissed at the gook(know he’s Korean, just don’t know the proper slur) for taking the bat out of Ohtani on my first five. After that I needed both to be profitable. But alas

I could be 2/2 and still a bit down on the night if old man Verlander doesn’t fall apart

[BCR]

Fuck me. I’ve been trying to jump on lines early. I grabbed twins RL last night after they won same bet for me yesterday. Just woke up in first inning and I have Ober pitching instead.

Not that he’s horrible, but he’s not Ryan. I have actually got into habit of clicking listed pitcher, but for some reason they don’t offer it on RL bets.

So now I have to hope to get lucky and have the Twins put up more runs than they usually do.

Have Red Sox RL also. Hopefully I can at least get a split and be in profit.

[BCR]

There we go gut. It wasn’t pretty with Ober getting hit all over the place, but he somehow kept them at 2 despite like 10 hits in 5 innings and then the big 8th. Nice to win game I thought was dead.

[Dan Druff]

Two explosive NL West games tonight.

Dodgers won 14-11 with a 6-run outburst in the 9th, after blowing an 8-4 lead and falling behind 11-8.

Padres were blowing out the Rockies 10-1 before having some drama and winning 13-9 with runners on in the 9th.

Jackson Merrill, who was crushing before getting injured, has picked up where he left off, and is now batting .420.

He has easily outperformed the more highly rated 2024 rookies named Jackson -- Chourio and Holliday.


Padres should start winning again now that they have Holliday, Cronenworth, and Arraez BACK in the lineup.

Dodgers putting up 14 was impressive given that they are missing Edman and Teoscar Hernandez.

[gut]

AL central on a combined 22 game win streak right now lol

[Dan Druff]

Here's how it looks for interleague play in each division right now:

AL East: +9
AL Central: 0
AL West: -8

NL East: -1
NL Central: -1
NL West: +1

Pretty good parity!

NL was way ahead but is now a game behind.

However I will say that the NL is 7 ahead if you take out the Rockies, and still 3 ahead if you take out both the Rockies and worst interleague AL team (Twins).

Some interesting stats regarding interleague:

Rays are 5-14 against AL, 12-7 against NL
Tigers are 20-7 against AL, 6-6 against NL
Padres are 8-10 against AL, 16-3 against NL

To be fair, some of Padres games against AL have been while missing several key players.

[BCR]

AL central on a combined 22 game win streak right now lol

At this rate my Tribe might even get into a positive run differential by June.

But not yet. Still -8. That KC had won 7 straight somehow escaped me. Weird considering how much I bet on baseball. They were a team i just wasn’t bothering to look at because i was on the wrong end of them a few times when they couldn’t score and was just disgusted at them.

I’m starting to look at Detroit like a juggernaut and betting -1.5 first fives with them occasionally. They are in that Cubs Dodgers Yankees level of run scoring right now.

[BCR]

Here's how it looks for interleague play in each division right now:

AL East: +9
AL Central: 0
AL West: -8

NL East: -1
NL Central: -1
NL West: +1

Pretty good parity!

NL was way ahead but is now a game behind.

However I will say that the NL is 7 ahead if you take out the Rockies, and still 3 ahead if you take out both the Rockies and worst interleague AL team (Twins).

Some interesting stats regarding interleague:

Rays are 5-14 against AL, 12-7 against NL
Tigers are 20-7 against AL, 6-6 against NL
Padres are 8-10 against AL, 16-3 against NL

To be fair, some of Padres games against AL have been while missing several key players.

That Dodgers game was insane last night.

Az is a crazy team. They have played multiple of those huge swing games where they were down by 4 up by 4 and then fall apart and lose by 3.
When you see those crazy live lines like +3000, you have to stop and think when you’re talking about the Diamondbacks.


There were times in that game they were +2000, then there were times they were -2800 and it flipped again back to +2000.

[Dan Druff]

I've seen a lot of big comebacks from the Dodgers. Last year, too.

This makes sense when you have a powerful offense which can put up runs quickly.

I wonder if there's money in live betting Dodgers deficits on days when they're behind but not looking totally dead with the bats.

[BCR]

Judge man. Two more homers and counting. He hit the second one so hard it left a dent about 30 feet above dead center 400 foot sign in the padding they have at the Sacramento field.

[Dan Druff]

Judge man. Two more homers and counting. He hit the second one so hard it left a dent about 30 feet above dead center 400 foot sign in the padding they have at the Sacramento field.

Yes he's on the way to a historic year. We will see if he can keep it up.

The insane thing to me is the batting average of around .400 to go with the power.

Wonder where Jackson Merrill would be right now if he hadn't missed all that time.

[Dan Druff]

It's just getting sad for the Rockies.

They are 6-33. They are averaging a loss by 3.44 runs, which is insane. How long before we start seeing Rockies +3.5 -110 lines?

Despite 20 games at Coors Field, they have the fewest runs scored in MLB. At 2-17, they are an almost automatic loss on the road. They are on pace to go 25-137.

Today they lost 21-0 at home. That's not a Broncos score, either.