april 2 'liberation day' predictions;

[Sanlmar]

Guys, this is Sonatine just two months into the Trump presidency. At this rate he'll be a full fledged member of one of these radical, tranny rifle clubs and fire bombing Teslas by the start of the summer.

As a veteran of the Iraqi Ski Team you prolly came to know Sonatine in a way only combat allows

I stand down

[splitthis]

Guys, this is Sonatine just two months into the Trump presidency. At this rate he'll be a full fledged member of one of these radical, tranny rifle clubs and fire bombing Teslas by the start of the summer.

His fatass is gonna stroke out before years end.

[splitthis]

BURN IT ALL DOWN

[sonatine]

[mickeycrimm]

The long term goal here is to have a balanced annual budget, with Social Security and Medicare relatively untouched, with some form of tax cut on income for middle class/upper middle class. Everything else is means to an ends.

To get to something resembling a balanced budget a few things needed to happen.

On the "revenue" side (I hate that term for government collections). We collected ~5T in taxes, 3.6 Income tax and 1.4 in social/medicare. The other $1.8T was borrowed.

The new Tariffs will be interesting to see what comes in. Its been speculated that 500B to 750B will come in as a new revenue line. The only way it wouldn't is if there was a massive reduction in consumption or a migration of manufacturing back onshore which would cause a different type of economic boom.

Right wrong or indifferent Tarrifs should cut the deficit down to 1T.

Now why is it that DOGE kept saying "save a trillion.... save a trillion". That is quite literaly what they are trying to do, cut a Trillion of annual spending.

Cutting and restructuring Government is going to save Billions. Shutting off US AID and a lot of other bullshit spending will save Billions more. Cutting the government workforce back to 2022 levels will save Hundred Billion. Offer one time severance and do what we need to do.

But with all of this its still not the Trillion we need to close the gap. We aren't cutting Social Security. We arent cutting Military spending. The VA is a sacred cow of sorts and isnt "that big" to beginwith.

That leaves one more line item that can be gamed or changed. Net Interest Expense.

4 years ago we were spending ~400B to service the debit. Last year as part of the $6.8T $1.2T was debt servicing. Obviously the amount of the debit is higher but so is the interest rate because of the inflation issues and we had to raise rates. We effectively need to refinance the debt. We dont want to pay $1.2T a year. We want to pay 500B a year. The only way to do that is for the interest rate to drop. Only way that happens without inflation kicking in is to take the economy/demand down a few clicks. In the next 2 years some 10T will need to be rolled over. If we can do that at 2% vs 4% our interest expense save will be massive.

And if we need to cool the economy why not add tarrifs to beef up"revenues - or - create new investment in the USA to help defer the pain? From this perspective its genius.

+.5-.75 T in Tarrifs
- .3-.4 T in saves from government restructure
-.6T savings in Interest payments

= A Balanced Budget

If the USA gets back to having a balanced Budget in 3-4 years the S&P will triple from here.

Take the money paid into The Social Security Retirement System out of the equation. That money is not there to pay government bills. It’s completely separate. It goes to retirees.

Years ago, when SS ran a surplus, a lot of the money was stolen by politicians, placed into the general fund and spent. That is, until word got out.

Stealing any money from retirees who paid into this shitty investment of a retirement system for forty years to get a paltry sum is not right.

[sonatine]

[Daly]

The long term goal here is to have a balanced annual budget, with Social Security and Medicare relatively untouched, with some form of tax cut on income for middle class/upper middle class. Everything else is means to an ends.

To get to something resembling a balanced budget a few things needed to happen.

On the "revenue" side (I hate that term for government collections). We collected ~5T in taxes, 3.6 Income tax and 1.4 in social/medicare. The other $1.8T was borrowed.

The new Tariffs will be interesting to see what comes in. Its been speculated that 500B to 750B will come in as a new revenue line. The only way it wouldn't is if there was a massive reduction in consumption or a migration of manufacturing back onshore which would cause a different type of economic boom.

Right wrong or indifferent Tarrifs should cut the deficit down to 1T.

Now why is it that DOGE kept saying "save a trillion.... save a trillion". That is quite literaly what they are trying to do, cut a Trillion of annual spending.

Cutting and restructuring Government is going to save Billions. Shutting off US AID and a lot of other bullshit spending will save Billions more. Cutting the government workforce back to 2022 levels will save Hundred Billion. Offer one time severance and do what we need to do.

But with all of this its still not the Trillion we need to close the gap. We aren't cutting Social Security. We arent cutting Military spending. The VA is a sacred cow of sorts and isnt "that big" to beginwith.

That leaves one more line item that can be gamed or changed. Net Interest Expense.

4 years ago we were spending ~400B to service the debit. Last year as part of the $6.8T $1.2T was debt servicing. Obviously the amount of the debit is higher but so is the interest rate because of the inflation issues and we had to raise rates. We effectively need to refinance the debt. We dont want to pay $1.2T a year. We want to pay 500B a year. The only way to do that is for the interest rate to drop. Only way that happens without inflation kicking in is to take the economy/demand down a few clicks. In the next 2 years some 10T will need to be rolled over. If we can do that at 2% vs 4% our interest expense save will be massive.

And if we need to cool the economy why not add tarrifs to beef up"revenues - or - create new investment in the USA to help defer the pain? From this perspective its genius.

+.5-.75 T in Tarrifs
- .3-.4 T in saves from government restructure
-.6T savings in Interest payments

= A Balanced Budget

If the USA gets back to having a balanced Budget in 3-4 years the S&P will triple from here.

Take the money paid into The Social Security Retirement System out of the equation. That money is not there to pay government bills. It’s completely separate. It goes to retirees.

Years ago, when SS ran a surplus, a lot of the money was stolen by politicians, placed into the general fund and spent. That is, until word got out.

SStealing the money from retirees who paid into this shitty investment of a retirement system for forty years to get it is not right.

I get your overarching point that it's a "benefit not an entitlement"- bought and paid for.

But

You cant just "take it out of the equation". A certain amount of money must flow into the SS fund every year for it to stay long term solvent. The Math don't Math without it.

[Sanlmar]

Take the money paid into The Social Security Retirement System out of the equation. That money is not there to pay government bills. It’s completely separate. It goes to retirees.

Years ago, when SS ran a surplus, a lot of the money was stolen by politicians, placed into the general fund and spent. That is, until word got out.

SStealing the money from retirees who paid into this shitty investment of a retirement system for forty years to get it is not right.

I get your overarching point that it's a "benefit not an entitlement"- bought and paid for.

But

You cant just "take it out of the equation". A certain amount of money must flow into the SS fund every year for it to stay long term solvent. The Math don't Math without it.

We will have much bigger fish to fry before 2035 than Social Security.

[mickeycrimm]

Take the money paid into The Social Security Retirement System out of the equation. That money is not there to pay government bills. It’s completely separate. It goes to retirees.

Years ago, when SS ran a surplus, a lot of the money was stolen by politicians, placed into the general fund and spent. That is, until word got out.

SStealing the money from retirees who paid into this shitty investment of a retirement system for forty years to get it is not right.

I get your overarching point that it's a "benefit not an entitlement"- bought and paid for.

But

You cant just "take it out of the equation". A certain amount of money must flow into the SS fund every year for it to stay long term solvent. The Math don't Math without it.

For decades there was a surplus. Supposed to go into the SS Trust Fund. But most of it was stolen. SS went into deficit in 2021. The difference is being paid by the Trust Fund. The fund is scheduled to deplete in 2033. At that point the amount coming in will cover only 80% of what’s owed to retirees. So as it is SS recipients will take a 20% cut in 2033. Which means the system will still be separate from the general fund.

Adjustments need to be made but politicians are avoiding it for now. The Projected 70 million recipients in 2033 will be a huge voting bloc. Politicians will take up the cause. It will most likely be a very big campaign issue in 2032….unless something is done about it before then.

[mickeycrimm]

I get your overarching point that it's a "benefit not an entitlement"- bought and paid for.

But

You cant just "take it out of the equation". A certain amount of money must flow into the SS fund every year for it to stay long term solvent. The Math don't Math without it.

We will have much bigger fish to fry before 2035 than Social Security.

70 million voters in 2032 will say fuck those fish, pay me.

[RichardBrodiesCombover.]

A lot of people overlooking the fact that this administration is just winging it. Incompetence will be the downfall of the GOP

[VaughnP]

A lot of people overlooking the fact that this administration is just winging it. Incompetence will be the downfall of the GOP

Wait, what happened to the Project 2025 master plan that 90% of libtards ranted about nonstop all of 2024?

[RichardBrodiesCombover.]

A lot of people overlooking the fact that this administration is just winging it. Incompetence will be the downfall of the GOP

Wait, what happened to the Project 2025 master plan that 90% of libtards ranted about nonstop all of 2024?

Don't get me wrong, if you hadn't chosen Trump as your king project 2025 would have worked out. But unfortunately Trump is daddy

[desertrunner]

[RichardBrodiesCombover.]

Love how Trump just smears shit all over everyone and goes straight to a weekend of golf, which we pay for. And because he owns the resort he pockets a large portion of that money.

[sonatine]

A lot of people overlooking the fact that this administration is just winging it. Incompetence will be the downfall of the GOP

the thing is, a lot of really smart people, including me, saw the need for the market to get bled off a bit. but trump being trump, he sees no difference between applying the breaks and swerving into a telephone pole. in fact he prefers the latter because no one in their right mind would choose it so he assumes that its the logical galaxy brain choice for a mensa ubergod like him and no one else gets it.

[desertrunner]

Love how Trump just smears shit all over everyone and goes straight to a weekend of golf, which we pay for. And because he owns the resort he pockets a large portion of that money.

[Daly]

I get your overarching point that it's a "benefit not an entitlement"- bought and paid for.

But

You cant just "take it out of the equation". A certain amount of money must flow into the SS fund every year for it to stay long term solvent. The Math don't Math without it.

For decades there was a surplus. Supposed to go into the SS Trust Fund. But most of it was stolen. SS went into deficit in 2021. The difference is being paid by the Trust Fund. The fund is scheduled to deplete in 2033. At that point the amount coming in will cover only 80% of what’s owed to retirees. So as it is SS recipients will take a 20% cut in 2033. Which means the system will still be separate from the general fund.

Adjustments need to be made but politicians are avoiding it for now. The Projected 70 million recipients in 2033 will be a huge voting bloc. Politicians will take up the cause. It will most likely be a very big campaign issue in 2032….unless something is done about it before then.

You know how you fix that? You raise the FICA%. You know what US companies can't do now?? Say fuck it I am moving these jobs to Vietnam because of the Tariffs.

[mickeycrimm]

[sonatine]