OT saved my over, which was about to barely lose.
However, Detroit couldn't get itself over the top and lost outright.
Split 'em.
GL to the Cleveland bettors here
i bet the same over also, but probably before you did... and then i seen you give out the play and didn't want to jinx anything so i didn't say anything... i almost sprinkled a little on CHA money line @ +120.... NBA home dogs are winning at 54% so far this season... but i didn't... story of my life... had under 37 on the NFL game... looks like that is gonna lose....
Druff,
How is NBA going this year? I know you used to keep records. Are you right now?
I started doing exotic props and parlays, which is fun but I am losing my ass. Surprise surprise.
For example it is halftime of Lakers/Magic and I have a Lebron/Reaves combined prop of at least 4 three pointers -200. They are at 2 at halftime, so the sweat is on.
I think I may have found my sports calling.
I have a friend who loves public sides of bets. He texts me for advice and ask what I think, and I advise my opinion. In the times I've talked down his "locks", he's surprised, but ultimately has taken my "stay away" advice 19 times, including tonight's Steelers spread and last night's Bulls spread.
My record in those "stay away" trap spots? 18-1. Not kidding. Unfortunately, when I state the picks I do like, I've only broken approximately even. Double unfortunately, I've rarely bet the other side in those games, but rather just told him not to bet what he's suggesting.
Probably just variance here, but wow. Maybe I should just stick to fading trap lines.
Horrible loss by Lakers. Were up the whole game but never really pulled away; and Lebron and AD went combined 2-6 from the free throw line in the last minute of the game and lost by 1 point.
Its probably less variance than you think.
The #1 lesson in sports gambling, as far as picking winers and losers, is understanding the “house wants balanced action” fallacy.
Once you understand that vegas is not in the business of saving up 5% of the gate its easier to understand the parlor tricks. They know more about recency bias and public opinion than Madison avenue ad firms.
“fading trap lines” is over 50% of my formula.
Chiefs at Carolina this weekend seems the exact same kind of bet as Pitt Cle. The public will flood the Chiefs but 10+ points is a ton, and the Chiefs could still blow them out and not cover.
I am less inclined on a money line bet as last night, but the payoff would be huge. Might be worth a taste, but the points are a meal.
Thanks, Daly, for your picks and thoughts.
Just after posting about avoiding traps, I'm going to bet one.
This is based upon the Sixers being a favorite last time, and still losing OUTRIGHT.
Brooklyn +130 vs Philadelphia
Embiid, Lowry, Geroge OUT
Clippers player
Single
@
+110
Open
Nov 22 • 2024 At 09:20:32 PM
Ticket ID: 83084
Points scored by the player: Coffey, Amir - Over 12.5
Wow. I had Coffey O11.5 and I logged in just to bitch. He had 11 through 3 and then didn't get 1 second of 4th Q run. So fucking brutal. He played fine. Clippers were ahead and in cruise control all game and I guess Lue decided 24 minutes were enough for him (although every other starter got some 4th Q run so not sure why he was singled out for the pine).
I also have San Jose St +7.5 in CFB. They are down 4 in the 4th and UNLV is on a long drive that included a conversion on 3rd and 13 and a first down on a punt due to running into the kicker. Seems destined for a TD and cover by UNLV. So fucking brutal brutal brutal. Just one of those years I guess.
I see dudes online who lost 12 leg parlays with 11 winners on his not playing the 4th. Fucking horrible. Sacramento scoring 29 first half points made it so Clips were in cruise control. He played 33 last game and was playing well. Just went with taller guys to rebound and protect lead.
LOL. San Jose St. the same guy got a roughing the kicker penalty on 2 separate UNLV 4th quarter punts to guarantee they dont cover. What a joke. I have seen a lot of nonsense in my day, but not sure I have ever seen the same guy get 2 roughing the kicker penalties on punts to cost me a bet like that before.
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