Still looking to degen off on the election, 9 days later?

You can.

There are 3 undecided House seats, all in CA:

CA-13
CA-21
CA-45

Republicans have 220 locked up. CA-13 is a slight (albeit surprising) R lead, and it's considered a 59% favorite to go GOP, according to analyst Josh Whitfield. CA-45 is a tiny R lead, but highly likely to evaporate. CA-21 is all but over, going to Dems.

This makes 221 the most likely outcome, especially if you believe Tran (D) is winning CA-45, which I think he is. In fact, Whitfield seems to think the 89% forecast for Tran is low, believing it would "take a miracle" for Steel (R) to win.

This basically leaves 221 as a 58% or so chance, and you can get it on Poly for 50c, so there's a little value there.

https://polymarket.com/event/of-gop-...epresentatives

Firing on 222 for 6c seems tempting, but don't do it. GOP isn't winning CA-21, and CA-45 is looking really bad.


https://twitter.com/JoshLWhitfield/status/1857008211347263876