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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #40501
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by DrPeters View Post
    ravens -4

    LOLWOW where we at w this nigga?
    Don't encourage him

  2. #40502
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I'm passing tonight on both games. Can't figure it out.

  3. #40503
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Money says tampa +4 under 51 and under 44 late


    Lamar over 19.5 and 230.5 and Baker over 258.5

  4. #40504
    Gold The Boz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by The Boz View Post

    Shocked you throw stuff like this out there. Do you have a star system or is every play equal? I get it somewhat if this is 1/10 of a regular play.
    What is it about the play is “shocking”? Its either +EV or it isnt, which I think it was even if it didn't cash.
    We could debate about EV on sports all day and night. My point is do you make an average play on a long shot like this when you know it’s going to lose. Seems strange to waste a regular size wager on it to me. But if the lottery ticket hits, I guess you can technically lose 15 straight and say you are “even”, which you would be.

  5. #40505
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post

    What is it about the play is “shocking”? Its either +EV or it isnt, which I think it was even if it didn't cash.
    We could debate about EV on sports all day and night. My point is do you make an average play on a long shot like this when you know it’s going to lose. Seems strange to waste a regular size wager on it to me. But if the lottery ticket hits, I guess you can technically lose 15 straight and say you are “even”, which you would be.
    What if it hits every 8?

     
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  6. #40506
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Sanlmar “The NBA Guy” here

    “King of the court DK Promo” The way this promo works is you bet any amount on any prop for the player you think will be the Points, Rebounds, and Assists leader (combined) and you get a share of $1 million bonus. The bet you place doesn’t even have to hit for you to be eligible for the bonus. Last night, winners got $1k bonus for betting on LaMelo Ball player props bc he happened to be the PRA leader for the day across NBA. It’s an insane promo. I did $2.50 on Shai as a minimal bet to enter into the promo contest

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      gut: TY. I did some bet but Jokic

  7. #40507
    Platinum JeffDime's Avatar
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    Despite being short prices these are a little positive EV in imho. LPGA is in Malaysia and this is R2 starting in an hour or 2. I’m hoping I can jump on here to break my losing streak. I won’t get into it, other than I had the 54 hole leader on the LPGA 5 times in 2 months. Not one finished it off. So not posting my plays has saved anyone with temptation to tail a lot of agony.

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    Some books may still call Jeeno by her old name Attayah. Same person.

  8. #40508
    Platinum 1dollarboxcar's Avatar
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    put a little bit down on the Vikings -2.5 @ -118... anyone else like this or nah??

  9. #40509
    Platinum JeffDime's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post

    What is it about the play is “shocking”? Its either +EV or it isnt, which I think it was even if it didn't cash.
    We could debate about EV on sports all day and night. My point is do you make an average play on a long shot like this when you know it’s going to lose. Seems strange to waste a regular size wager on it to me. But if the lottery ticket hits, I guess you can technically lose 15 straight and say you are “even”, which you would be.
    You know you are my guy Boz, and when you are just not talking about “line beating” EV can be subjective in Sports. It has a lot of gray area and that’s why we have so many phonies out there. However, I just found this in the Sportsbetting constitution .

    Subsection 41 (d)

    Line 6. ”If Daly posts it on PokerFraudAlert, the bet shall hereby and forever be deemed +EV”

    Line 7. “There shall be no exceptions to Subsection 41 (d) Line 6”

     
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      Daly: Too kind. But anyone in here who posts a play should be able to stand by it and explain why

  10. #40510
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1dollarboxcar View Post
    put a little bit down on the Vikings -2.5 @ -118... anyone else like this or nah??

    wish daly vouched on this id put a stack on it... i like our team but obv im blind homerizm from MN

  11. #40511
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Sorry, going other way.

    Rams +135

     
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  12. #40512
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rollinx420 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by 1dollarboxcar View Post
    put a little bit down on the Vikings -2.5 @ -118... anyone else like this or nah??

    wish daly vouched on this id put a stack on it... i like our team but obv im blind homerizm from MN
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Sorry, going other way.

    Rams +135
    One of you will be right. One of you will be wrong.


    Ill be neither. This is a coin flip. 24-21 Rams wouldn't shock me in the least.

    Gl!

  13. #40513
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    I could write my Thesis on the content of this thread.

    “They knew” “Vegas knew”

    Of course they did. They are way way smarter than all of us. Stop fighting them.


    https://twitter.com/bitw3891/status/1849649643853889728

     
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      Tellafriend: it has taken me years to finally understand and even so, i still fight it

  14. #40514
    Platinum 1dollarboxcar's Avatar
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    can we talk about game 1 of the WS... thinking about putting a little down on the yanks @+111, does anyone like it or hate it or just stay away...TIA

  15. #40515
    Silver DrPeters's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1dollarboxcar View Post
    can we talk about game 1 of the WS... thinking about putting a little down on the yanks @+111, does anyone like it or hate it or just stay away...TIA
    i like the dodgers tonite so you are probly good betting on the yanks

     
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      1dollarboxcar: i don't know, i seem to be on the wrong side of everything here lately too...

  16. #40516
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    New Orleans -6.5 at Portland

  17. #40517
    Platinum JeffDime's Avatar
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    FRL market would have been nice. In the wrong state and the wrong time. God bless anyone who did.

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      Daly: Nice tout!

  18. #40518
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    I like the under in the BC game

    I semi love the under in the boise game

    I semi love the over in the usc game

  19. #40519
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Good night last night early slate

    Wash +6
    Ore -22
    Free Shoes U +21
    Wis +7 -115

    Oh St U 24.5 Fh
    Wash O 54
    Ore U28 FH
    Free Shoes U28 FH

  20. #40520
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Annual PSA:

    Its the time of the year where local books starting having lots of problems. I lost two this week that surprisingly didn't have anything to do with my winning but that said they had problems with others collecting (almost honorable, if you can believe it)

    7 weeks of NFL is about right historically when things go bad. If you are dealing with a local make sure you collecting and dont get into a spot where they owe you big or you owe them big (because you pay them this week they may not give it back the following).

    Spread around the liability. Its a art not getting stiffed.

     
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      Tellafriend: ty
      
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