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Thread: Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

  1. #721
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    🇺🇲 FINAL NATIONAL POLL: NYT/Siena 2-WAY 🟥 Trump: 48% 🟦 Harris: 48% Last poll (9/26-10/6) - 🔵 Harris+3 —— FULL FIELD 🟥 Trump: 47% 🟦 Harris: 46% 🟩 Stein: 2% 🟪 Other: 2%

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    NYTIMES 2020 poll: Biden+10
    NYTIMES 2024 poll: Tie

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    Poll Salad but you get the point.


    RCP Average 2024 2020 2016
    National Harris +0.1 Biden +8.0 Clinton +5.1
    Wisconsin Trump +0.2 Biden +5.5 Clinton +6.0
    Pennsylvania Trump +0.6 Biden +4.8 Clinton +5.2
    Ohio Trump +7.0 Trump +0.6 Trump +1.0
    Michigan Trump +0.2 Biden +9.0 Clinton +10.0
    Arizona Trump +1.5 Biden +2.2 Clinton +1.5
    Nevada Trump +0.7 Biden +5.2 Clinton +3.9
    North Carolina Trump +0.8 Biden +1.2 Clinton +2.2
    Georgia Trump +2.2 Biden +0.7 Trump +3.3
    Florida Trump +8.4 Biden +1.8 Clinton +2.4

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I've kicked limitles from the thread for spamming.

    It's looking pretty bad for Kamala. I have optimism that Trump wins this one. I thought he would lose both 2016 and 2020.

     
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      splitthis: Offset for effort

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I've kicked limitles from the thread for spamming.

    It's looking pretty bad for Kamala. I have optimism that Trump wins this one. I thought he would lose both 2016 and 2020.
    When Virginia is in play, you know something is up. It's like 20 pages ago in this thread, but when I said when you see candidates or their surrogates going to places they should not be, well Biden just went to New Hampshire. I believe the election is breaking hard for Trump.

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    Why is Kamala in Texas, I know Houston is blue but she has no shot

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    Quote Originally Posted by Texter View Post
    Why is Kamala in Texas, I know Houston is blue but she has no shot
    I believe its a reaction that Trump sold out MSG this weekend and trying to react. The reality is Trump grew up in Jamaica NY and has ties there. So I get it. I doubt Kamala has ever been to Houston. Both states are never going to swing, but one is reacting to the other, and well..

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    How will betting sites react if Jamie Raskin's plan of DQing Trump and denying his inauguration on Jan 6th is implemented?

    https://twitter.com/TheEXECUTlONER_/status/1848738849217712482

     
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jasep View Post
    I have always tried to carry myself with a high level of integrity in the poker community and I take it very personally when someone calls that in to question.

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    🔴 Trump: 49% | 🔵 Harris: 49% | 🟡 Independents: Trump+3 | Last poll: Harris+1 | Emerson | 10/23-24 | N=1,000LV

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    Quote Originally Posted by Deal View Post
    How will betting sites react if Jamie Raskin's plan of DQing Trump and denying his inauguration on Jan 6th is implemented?

    https://twitter.com/TheEXECUTlONER_/status/1848738849217712482
    This fucking guy had his son commit suicide at the age of 25. You would think he would show humility, and just exit the public spotlight. Maybe focus on what you could have done differently as a parent, self reflection, what were the warning signs? No not him, his TDS is so severe you get these absurd quotes.

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    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Just as I predicted, when you see candidates going to "other states" it is about as predictive as it gets.

    Early Voting results and this poll mean that VA may be a shocker. That's why Trump has a rally there with Youngkin: #NEW VIRGINIA poll 🔵 Harris: 49% (+6) 🔴 Trump: 43% Washington Post | 10/19-23 | N=1,004LV

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    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Just as I predicted, when you see candidates going to "other states" it is about as predictive as it gets.

    Early Voting results and this poll mean that VA may be a shocker. That's why Trump has a rally there with Youngkin: #NEW VIRGINIA poll 🔵 Harris: 49% (+6) 🔴 Trump: 43% Washington Post | 10/19-23 | N=1,004LV
    Not sure what you talking about here. If she is up 6 points this late he should pull out.

    Trump should live in PA, Mi and Wi for the next 2 weeks. Should never leave the rust belt.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Just as I predicted, when you see candidates going to "other states" it is about as predictive as it gets.

    Early Voting results and this poll mean that VA may be a shocker. That's why Trump has a rally there with Youngkin: #NEW VIRGINIA poll �� Harris: 49% (+6) �� Trump: 43% Washington Post | 10/19-23 | N=1,004LV
    Not sure what you talking about here. If she is up 6 points this late he should pull out.

    Trump should live in PA, Mi and Wi for the next 2 weeks. Should never leave the rust belt.
    You missed my point. In 2016 Trump began 10 days out basically living in MI. Everyone was like what are you doing? The MSM had him 8-10 points down in MI. He won the state, based on internal polling. Internal polling is unskewed with a much larger sample size. He is there in VA for a reason. The same reason Biden was just in New Hampshire. Just like James Carville said a week ago, this election is not going to be close. Going to take a election week surprise to derail Trump's momentum, which admittedly could happen, one just would assume it would have come out the last decade. It's not John Kelley's Nazi comments, which people don't realize are recycled.

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    Harris donors actually gave their money for this. Enjoy.

    BREAKING: Beyonce reportedly got paid $10 million for her 2 minute speech last night.

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