Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

[Daly]

I think we can put these "Is Texas in play" or "Is Florida in play" bull shit to bed. Good polls for Trump on the national level.

Texas: Trump vs. Harris NY Times/Siena
Trump 50, Harris 44

Trump +6

Florida: Trump vs. Harris NY Times/Siena
Trump 55, Harris 41

Trump +14

National: Trump vs. Harris NY Times/Siena
Harris 49, Trump 46

Harris +3

National: Trump vs. Harris Reuters/Ipsos
Harris 51, Trump 49

Harris +2

Each party has certain unrealistic fantasies about states being in play which will definitely not be

For the Democrats, it's Texas, Florida, and Montana.

For the Republicans, it's Minnesota, New Jersey, and Virginia.


Anyway, even Democratic strategists are privately getting concerned. Kamala is losing popularity with every dumb interview she does.

I don't know anyone who follows politics who thinks or is calling for Minn or Virginia going red.

The one i keep hearing as a surprise is Trump is way more alive in New York that he has any business being. People not happy how he was treated and the in general clown car political seen.

[Daly]

Deal: Trump renting out madison square garden thinking NY is in play.

[]

How incredible would it be for Harris to perform better than advertised in the rust belt only to have New York turn Red over all the bullshit legal cases that the people did not support.

[sonatine]

Deal: Trump renting out madison square garden thinking NY is in play.

[]

How incredible would it be for Harris to perform better than advertised in the rust belt only to have New York turn Red over all the bullshit legal cases that the people did not support.

yeah and then a UFO lands but instead of aliens its packed with dog dicks and they all sing Ave Maria out of their space urethras.

[sonatine]

man wouldnt that be something.

[lol wow]

they will be singing hallelujah like that chick on snl after trump won and it was iconic

[big dick]

Deal: Trump renting out madison square garden thinking NY is in play.

[]

How incredible would it be for Harris to perform better than advertised in the rust belt only to have New York turn Red over all the bullshit legal cases that the people did not support.

For the life of me I cant figure out why a guy like you or any American who has prospered in our current system would wanna gamble on changing the current system.

Trump picks Waco, Texas, to kick off his 2024 presidential campaign


Did you know this about Waco? Wasnt kicked off there by accident

[big dick]

Texter- I know you're a smart guy a good guy and a reasonable guy.

Look at some of the people on this board you're in political kahoots with- boxcarr, desert, mickey ect

Why would you or any normal man want to be associated with the morons i mentioned above?

My main issue is the US border and the out of control government spending. I am pro immigrant but 10 million is too too many.

Of course the republicans have had plenty of opportunities in the past to cut spending and didn’t do shit.

I wish independents in non swing states would vote libertarian just so we could get a 3rd party on stage of the debates, out two party system is a joke. Politics has been ruined by the sheer sums of $$$ to be made, the main goal of most politicians is to get re-elected and keep the money faucet flowing.

I agree with you the border needs to be fixed as well as the debt issue and probaly agree with you on most issues but these fascist nutjobs who are trying to steal power are not going to solve our problems

I just think we will all regret it in the long run if they somehow get power.

[Texter]

My main issue is the US border and the out of control government spending. I am pro immigrant but 10 million is too too many.

Of course the republicans have had plenty of opportunities in the past to cut spending and didn’t do shit.

I wish independents in non swing states would vote libertarian just so we could get a 3rd party on stage of the debates, out two party system is a joke. Politics has been ruined by the sheer sums of $$$ to be made, the main goal of most politicians is to get re-elected and keep the money faucet flowing.

I agree with you the border needs to be fixed as well as the debt issue and probaly agree with you on most issues but these fascist nutjobs who are trying to steal power are not going to solve our problems

I just think we will all regret it in the long run if they somehow get power.

I will regret it no matter who wins.

[tgull]

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[garrett]

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[The Boz]

Still opportunity if you believe Trump is going to win and Kamala wins the popular vote. Shocked it’s still +205 compared to -135 for just a Trump win.

[tgull]

Still opportunity if you believe Trump is going to win and Kamala wins the popular vote. Shocked it’s still +205 compared to -135 for just a Trump win.

Cali just has too many people who vote Democrat. You really are never going to overcome that. The Dems have done a brilliant job in that state to keep people dependent on government checks. I hate it, but if it keeps people like that magnetized over there, it really is worth it when you think about it.

[Daly]

How incredible would it be for Harris to perform better than advertised in the rust belt only to have New York turn Red over all the bullshit legal cases that the people did not support.

For the life of me I cant figure out why a guy like you or any American who has prospered in our current system would wanna gamble on changing the current system.

Trump picks Waco, Texas, to kick off his 2024 presidential campaign


Did you know this about Waco? Wasnt kicked off there by accident

“The current system”

If you think things have gone well over the last 3.5 years then I cant help you.

[big dick]

you think im just talking about the last 3.5 years?

how about waco you didnt respond to that

[tgull]

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[1dollarboxcar]

^^^^

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[tgull]

Keep in mind Clinton and Biden were up between 5 and 9 points at this time:

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[tgull]

NATIONAL poll 🔴 Trump: 47% (+1) 🔵 Harris: 46% 🟠 Other/unsure: 3% 🟡 Kennedy: 2% 🟣 Oliver: 1% 🟢 Stein: 1% NBC | Oct. 4-8 | N=1,000RV

[tgull]

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[Dan Druff]

I was feeling pessimistic about Trump's chances, but I think Kamala's goose is cooked.

The bottom line is that too many Americans are unhappy with the cost of everything, and Kamala hasn't convinced anyone that she's not going to be a continuation of Biden.

Additionally, this looks like a ticket of stupid people. Neither Kamala nor Walz comes off as intelligent or competent in interviews. I think the Vance/Walz debate was actually the turning point. That plus Kamala's disasterous interviews are probably making people nervous to put that ticket in the White House. At least people know what they got with Trump.

Obama is out there crying to black men about not supporting Kamala enough. Trump is about to score the highest percentage of black voters in modern history. This includes Reagan, who only got 9% of the black vote, and 34% of the Hispanic vote in 1984 when he almost won all 50 states.

Trump is going to get clobbered in the white suburban women demographic, but I don't think it's going to be enough for Kamala. Despite a bad debate and many other missteps, Trump is on pace to take this one.