Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

[Jayjami]

zero chance this person doesnt lurk this site

Yeah, but you have not been following the fact Trump wants to abolish the Fed, which he can do relatively easily. He just needs a simple majority in both chambers, it’s not like it’s a constitutional amendment. I am not sure why people think the Fed is some type of sacrosanct entity. It's a few people who think they are smarter than everyone else on the economy. They were smart this last go around taking a dozen eggs from .99 to 3.49. But whatever, most Fed Presidents are pro choice and that is what matters.

If you think for one second that Wall Street will allow Trump any control over the Fed, you’re out of your fucking mind.

[VaughnP]

Trumps losing North Carolina..

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https://twitter.com/ArgoJournal/status/1824794795471970360

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https://twitter.com/joma_gc/status/1824507654741348501

Guys she is dominating in North Carolina. She is definitely up at least the 4 point margins the NYT poll shows for Wisconsin and Pennsylvania as well.

[tony bagadonuts]

Trump has definitely stopped the bleed. He is probably a point or two down which is fine, Harris needs to be close to 4 points nationally to take the Electoral College. Keep in mind Clinton won the popular vote by 3.5 points and Biden took it by around 4 points. I am telling you, Kamala's dancing on stage at the DNC with her fake smile will backfire. Whatever bump she gets will last maybe a week, if that.

General Election: Trump vs. Harris
Rasmussen Reports
Harris 45, Trump 49
Trump
+4
General Election: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. Stein vs. West
Rasmussen Reports
Harris 44, Trump 48, Kennedy 4, Stein 1, West 0
Trump
+4
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris
Fabrizio/Anzalone
Harris 48, Trump 48
Tie
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Fabrizio/Anzalone
Harris 43, Trump 45, Kennedy 6, Stein 1, West 1
Trump
+2

Tgull, assuming Druff will escrow I'll bet you $500 straight up Harris beats Trump. Step up my guy.

[tgull]

Trump has definitely stopped the bleed. He is probably a point or two down which is fine, Harris needs to be close to 4 points nationally to take the Electoral College. Keep in mind Clinton won the popular vote by 3.5 points and Biden took it by around 4 points. I am telling you, Kamala's dancing on stage at the DNC with her fake smile will backfire. Whatever bump she gets will last maybe a week, if that.

General Election: Trump vs. Harris
Rasmussen Reports
Harris 45, Trump 49
Trump
+4
General Election: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. Stein vs. West
Rasmussen Reports
Harris 44, Trump 48, Kennedy 4, Stein 1, West 0
Trump
+4
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris
Fabrizio/Anzalone
Harris 48, Trump 48
Tie
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Fabrizio/Anzalone
Harris 43, Trump 45, Kennedy 6, Stein 1, West 1
Trump
+2

Tgull, assuming Druff will escrow I'll bet you $500 straight up Harris beats Trump. Step up my guy.

LOL, no offense my left wing Seattle friend, but $500 is not worth my time. I make and lose $500 on the stock market by 9:32am on a Monday morning on Crowdstrike. You might want to ping Cleatus, he might give you some low stake action.

[tony bagadonuts]

Tgull, assuming Druff will escrow I'll bet you $500 straight up Harris beats Trump. Step up my guy.

LOL, no offense my left wing Seattle friend, but $500 is not worth my time. I make and lose $500 on the stock market by 9:32am on a Monday morning on Crowdstrike. You might want to ping Cleatus, he might give you some low stake action.

I figured that might be a little rich for you.

Left wing??? Your TDS is off the charts bro. I think Harris is going to win but make no mistake I think she's TERRIBLE. But thanks to you and the rest of the MAGA nuts she's likely going to win.

The bright side will be hopefully Trump gets remanded to the scrapheap of history and we can rebuild a sane Republican party up from the studs.

[tgull]

LOL, no offense my left wing Seattle friend, but $500 is not worth my time. I make and lose $500 on the stock market by 9:32am on a Monday morning on Crowdstrike. You might want to ping Cleatus, he might give you some low stake action.

I figured that might be a little rich for you.

Left wing??? Your TDS is off the charts bro. I think Harris is going to win but make no mistake I think she's TERRIBLE. But thanks to you and the rest of the MAGA nuts she's likely going to win.

The bright side will be hopefully Trump gets remanded to the scrapheap of history and we can rebuild a sane Republican party up from the studs.

You live in Seattle and have been corroded. It's been a systemic infiltration of liberalism. You just got worn down, you have changed.

You got a binary choice of Harris who will surround herself with some of the biggest freaks on the planet, or Trump who will actually put reasonable people around him. Neither of the candidates will call the shots. Harris is too fucking dumb, and Trump candidly is too old. So who will pick the better staff? You are just on the wrong side Tony. And no $500 is pocket change to me. But I am glad you decided on the forums what we all believe and knew all along: You are with her, congrats now go sip some Chardonnay with your Washington state neighbors and sit around telling each other how smart you are. So long old friend.

Well, I heard Mister Young sing about her
Well, I heard ol' Neil put her down
Well, I hope Neil Young will remember
A Southern man don't need him around anyhow

[Texter]

I was just watching the professor of rock YouTube on Sweet home Alabama and Neil Young.

[sonatine]

[tgull]

Polymarket just saw a surge for Trump he is now even, 49-49 with Harris. A few days ago he was down by 7.

This is the race as of today. Keep in mind Biden and Clinton were up by double digits in 2016 and 2020 at this same point. I expect after a certain debate implosion by Harris in early September Trump will take a big lead and never look back. She really needs to up by 10 points by now and she is not even close. This is a terrible poll for Harris.

National Multi-Candidate
ABC News/Wash Post
Harris 47, Trump 44, Kennedy 5, Stein 1, West 1
Harris
+3

[tgull]

Going to be hilarious when this reverses in September. She needs to be up 10 points by now. I am telling you place your bets now. I have $10,000 on the line and increasing my position. My guess is when Trump is sentenced to 3 years in prison in late September, he will be up by 5 points. And it will increase from there.

National Multi-Candidate
CBS News
Harris 49, Trump 47, Kennedy 2, Stein 1, West 0
Harris
+2

[VaughnP]

Betting markets have started trending back towards Trump. If you were planning on waiting for better odds, it seriously might not happen. Normally a convention bounce even for terrible candidates is a given, but with this clusterfuck it's not.

These polls from a couple weeks ago are from the most accurate pollster in 2020 - even they still had a liberal bias of around 2 points on average. The only ones that came even close were Trafalgar and the TIPP polls. Reading through the bias of the latest polls still has the math come out to the same thing as these - Trump is very likely polling ahead of her in the popular vote by somewhere around 1.5 points.

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https://twitter.com/atlas_intel/status/1817307787761737763

[sonatine]

Betting markets have started trending back towards Trump.

i think this is why:

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https://twitter.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1825580164408910074


"So let's just assume Michigan and Wisconsin go blue, and North Carolina and Georgia go red. That means we're at 251-251. With only Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada left, there is no scenario for either candidate to win without Pennsylvania.

You don't run to be President of the United States. You run to be President of 25,000 undecided voters in Pennsylvania. That's the whole ball game. Nothing more, nothing less. Kamala could lose 1.9 million votes in New York and gain 1 vote in Pennsylvania relative to Biden in 2020 and she is the better candidate for all intents and purposes. Same goes for Trump."

[Orko]

I was watching this
https://www.trunews.com/video-articl...efore-november

Donalds Trump is $100 million in debt to that crazy lady and leticia James. Sept 18th Trump is going to get sent to Rikers Island.
The scotus case did not save Trump.

They will replace Trump w Nikki Haley because polling shows she will kick Kamala's ass.

You sports bettors need to get ahead on this.
Book it


Imo there's no way they had all those phony cases to let Trump stay in the race. Merchan is not going to show any mercy. His shocking bias hasd been plasin as day the whole trime.
God help us.

[VaughnP]

Someone explain to me why Trump isn't just as likely, honestly even more likely, to win Wisconsin as he is Pennsylvania based on what we are seeing with the current polling in comparison to past polling "errors"/bias?

[tgull]

Betting markets have started trending back towards Trump.

i think this is why:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1825580164408910074


"So let's just assume Michigan and Wisconsin go blue, and North Carolina and Georgia go red. That means we're at 251-251. With only Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada left, there is no scenario for either candidate to win without Pennsylvania.

You don't run to be President of the United States. You run to be President of 25,000 undecided voters in Pennsylvania. That's the whole ball game. Nothing more, nothing less. Kamala could lose 1.9 million votes in New York and gain 1 vote in Pennsylvania relative to Biden in 2020 and she is the better candidate for all intents and purposes. Same goes for Trump."

These cluster states are all inter-connected now. But I do agree about PA, it really is a true swing state. 50% of the population borders deep blue and 50% borders deep red. Assuming PA is the deciding factor, and it most likely is, it really comes down to which side gets their base out. I think in this election, Trump will get his base out more than Harris. She simply is not black enough. Her father was an Islander from Jamaica, her moms was an Indian. She is not some soul sister, I mean FFS she she is married to a rich Jewish white lawyer. She will get out the Black women, but the black guy is not going to wait in line to vote for her. This is not Obama, this is a woman who looks a lot more white than black. And she certainly acts a lot more white than black. Like I said she married a white Jewish lawyer and that is about the least black thing a black woman can do.

[tgull]

Obviously an awful poll for Harris, trailing a Senator by 8 points, in a state Biden won by 10, well it's a problem for her(she). Be interesting how much Trump is up next month when this media coronation is over. When she gets down in the polls, she will do a media interview blitz which will certainly destroy her campaign.

Tuesday, August 20
Virginia: Trump vs. Harris
Roanoke College
Harris 47, Trump 44
Harris
+3
Virginia: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Roanoke College
Harris 45, Trump 42, Kennedy 6, West 2, Stein 0
Harris
+3
Virginia Senate - Cao vs. Kaine
Roanoke College
Kaine 49, Cao 38
Kaine
+11

[sonatine]

Ex-Nikki Haley voters rally behind Kamala Harris: ‘I picked the side that had the least issues’



gonna be hearing that logic a lot.

[tgull]

Ex-Nikki Haley voters rally behind Kamala Harris: ‘I picked the side that had the least issues’



gonna be hearing that logic a lot.

Those people were never voting for Trump anyway. A lot of 2016 Never Trumpers have the exact same quotes today as they did in 2016. I am not sure why Democrats got orgasmic when some former obscure congressman says he/she is voting for Harris. They are out of work because they got primaried out of a job. Now they have to go into the private sector and they are really struggling because they really for the most part are incapable. And I mean that for both sides of the aisle.

[VaughnP]

"CHICAGO (Reuters) - The founder of the main outside spending group backing Kamala Harris' presidential bid says their own opinion polling is less "rosy" than public polls suggest and warned that Democrats"

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https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1825773671194968162


You don't say.

[VaughnP]

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https://twitter.com/Pro__Trading/status/1825724208472895977


Hint: besides Trafalgar, which is paid for by Republicans, one of the firms used to conduct real, unbiased internal polling for both sides has been posted in this thread.