Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
Honestly I had Trump at like 4-1 a month ago. Feels like he’s 9/5 favorite now.

To me, the GOP/conservative media/Trump had a very bad month.

Nothing major, but like 5 things that are small, but it almost feels like no one is really plugged in heavily to one source every night like the old days, and sometimes a bunch of small shit hits different groups and can make up a percent or two.

The Alabama SC ruling. They immediately saw how much trouble it was and did their best to run away from it, but it happened.

Tucker/Putin interview.
This didn’t play well. Just all of it. Putin mocking him during interview, mocking him after.

It only matters because disliking Ukraine War, being Putin fanboys, being Tucker fanboys are the largely the same group. Not all, but mostly the same group. Anything that splinters a group is a loss.

I thought they misplayed the SOTU big time and in 3 ways that night.

Setting the lowest of expectations of Biden. Dems used to do this with Trump. Make him out to be such a crazy man that if he stayed anywhere near the script, he seemed presidential. Biden not falling asleep and yelling a little bit became a win when you paint a guy as full on Weekend at Bernies. You couldn’t shoot up Bernie with some stimulant.

That Britt response was just beyond bad. Weeks of blaming each other, girl set up a gofundme, etc. Just a huge fail with everyone playing the blame game still weeks later.

Easily the worst though.

Trump being Trump and posting that truth social post wanting credit for the vaccine. It’s like he has no idea how large a percentage of his voters are still obsessed with nonsensical vaccine injury theories and other assorted nonsense.

Worst part is he quoted Biden, but his part of the statement on it was essentially saying he jammed it through regulations. There isn't really a way to spin that.

That’s the entire crux of the anti-vaxxer movement. That it should have went through trials. He says he got though in 9 months what Biden would have taken 12 years to get through. That means it would be 8 years away now.

In other words, Biden would have been more cautious and he fast tracked it. He doesn’t grasp his loons have been arguing about this for years now, obsessed, and always placed blame on Biden. He’s announcing he wants credit for rushing it.

Horrible mistake. This is the one I’ve heard multiple Trump people bitch about the last week. Particularly dangerous when you have a true blue vaccine nutter in RFK running. He’s the OG anti-vaxxer, so if you really believe random quacks and all that antivax nonsense and it’s truly your cause, you now really only have one choice.

If you believe Trump, he should be target 1 of your ire. He rushed it. Biden wouldn’t have according to him. And RFK would have never considered it. He still arguing thimerosal and autism like it’s 2002.

Alex Jones lost his mind at Trump, but more importantly, I saw real people lose their shit. They aren’t going to become Biden voters, but a few might go RFK.

He basically said the J in Donald J Trump is for jab. That isn’t going away.

Nothing horrific as a bunch of minor issues, but these states get decided by a few thousand votes and there is a 3rd party running. Now add in Shapiro going after SS.

Everything was trending his way until the last month. I still think he wins, but the GOP isn’t playing well atm and the Dems have over-performed every poll considerably since the Roe decision. Across the map everywhere including red states.

I’d just be on message of inflation all day long, but they have a lot of erratic individuals with a national platform. They had a bad month and made some true unforced errors.

Excellent analysis.

I am one of the GOP's harshest critics when it comes to strategy. There are rah-rah idiots in my party who always try to spin why conservatives are going to crush whatever the next election is, and how the Dems are on the ropes. Of course, the Dems have their own version of those same delusional idiots. But when I see the GOP fucking up when it comes to electoral strategy, I am frustrated by it, because I want them to win. And I never like living in a world of delusion.

Much like the GOP snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in 2022 with the Roe ruling (plus the subsequent state law changes) and the horrible Trump-endorsed candidates, they might do the same in 2024 if they aren't careful.

When the Dems give you loads of easy softballs to smack out of the park, and when people in general are unhappy, you seize upon that.

They need the reverse of the Reagan question from 1984: "Are you happier now than you were 4 years ago?" For Reagan, the answer for most Americans was YES, and it resonated big time. He almost swept all 50 states.

Today, most people will answer NO, and Trump needs to ride that one hard. There are lots of sound bites of Biden saying that inflation in 2021 was "transitory" and "will last one or two months". They need to dig all of those up, play them over and over, and show price differences of various basics in 2019 versus 2024.

Run with that, run with the border stuff (though the GOP voting down the border bill complicates that a bit), run with the deterioration of major cities regarding crime/homelessness/theft, and run with the gender identity bullshit (but don't obsess too hard over it). Show examples of Biden looking really confused and old.

That's a winning strategy. Remind everyone how expensive things are and how things have gone downhill since Trump was in office, and how the Dems are too busy worrying about respecting 100 pronouns and making sure that dudes are entering women's sports.

Then just stop all the unforced errors. All of the things you mentioned are accurate. Nothing major, but various unforced errors which have dragged Trump and the GOP's chances down. The SOTU thing was indeed a big mess. Not sure how they didn't see it coming that Biden would be on major uppers and appear lively, because anything else would mean sure defeat. Not sure why that response video -- always a challenge for the GOP for some reason -- wasn't vetted by smart people within the party before submitting it.