*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[BCR]

Couple picks that are PFA adjacent. Jamming them in before the ploppie money moves the line

I want you to know that I'm proud neither of what I have done or of what I am doing.

Milw Miley 2.90 ERA / 4.29 EXPECTED ERA / 1.13 WHIP / 17% K%

LAD Kershaw 2.51 ERA / 3.45 EXPECTED ERA / 1.03 WHIP / 27.5 K%

Milwaukee has an amazing Bullpen and Dodgers are good too. Brewers Mariners and Dodgers are top of the league. Brewers are better than Dodgers by SIERA but Bo Miller went long last night and Dodger didn’t really touch the pen.

Milw TT under 1.5 F5 -120 ✅ is fucking nuts but the maths work (insert Kershaw giving up a homer pic with mouth open). DraftKings Innings / Team Total first x innings

Cleveland Syndergaard 6.35 ERA / 6.33 EXP ERA / 1.40 WHIP / 14.5 K%

Cinn Abbott 2.95 / 3.54 / 1.11 / 27 K%

Cleveland’s Bullpen is unbelievably one of the worst in the MLB now RIP. Cinci isn’t great either. There is an argument for F5 to avoid variance.

Reds -0.5 F5 -120 ✅

Syndergaard has done pretty well with Cleveland having escaped Dodger’s Prior. Was it luck?

Rotowire


Look at recent Thor game logs on ESPN schedule

Money line parlay Lad & Cinci +130 ✅

Betts & Marcus Simien or Seager Texas 1+ Hits parlay @Boxcar ✅
@Boxcar look at your BallParkPal and take your vitamins

Lotta typing but BCR & Druff

The NL West last 10 games is simply unbelievable. What a collapse. Is still can’t get over it. Does SDP Pellier get whacked? Fans have turned on Padres and the clubhouse is cancer. Giants are a game show with the pitching. DBacks are just stunning in their collapse. After all these years you’d think eventually it would be competitive.

The pain was real. Proof

It was actually worse than that unless I’m seeing that wrong. Second and third and no outs with Steer up, who is best bat in lineup most days. He hit one to very shallow center, but I thought send him as it’s hard to make throw against body running full steam and I knew Votto was up next and McLain has good speed. They would have sent Da La Cruz, but he was runner at second. Votto then k. Then Encarcion K and I wanted to puke for Druff, but then remembered he was a very wealthy man fresh back from galavanting around the Cascade mountains. Still sucked

[BCR]

Yeah I think I agree it might be time to start plopping it with Dodgers -1.5.

Since July 31, they are 12-3 in -1.5 lines. The only losses against that spread were their 2-1 Rockies victory, 5-4 Diamondbacks victory, and 8-3 Padres loss.

In fact, -2.5 might not be out of the question, as they are 11-4 in -2.5 spread games since July 31!

I’ve rode them most nights since they gave up 5 to Padres a few weeks ago and then scored 8 the top of the next inning with Betts grand slam and added another 5 along the way. I avoid the away -180 -1.5, but I’m on everything else. I throw those away -1.5 against bad teams in parlays often. A few times I should have just went with -2.5 as my other team lost. They’re just so good at the end of this and last year.

[BCR]

Going to bet the Sawx -1.5 -115 as my new best friend ball park pal says they’re undervalued in this spot.

Been trying mentally to reverse engineer ballpark pal sims versus espn sims, as ballpark pal has been way more accurate. From
Best I can tell, whip and pitcher recent form is much more important to ballpark pal.

[Sanlmar]

Going to bet the Sawx -1.5 -115 as my new best friend ball park pal says they’re undervalued in this spot.

Been trying mentally to reverse engineer ballpark pal sims versus espn sims, as ballpark pal has been way more accurate. From
Best I can tell, whip and pitcher recent form is much more important to ballpark pal.

Pizza money bets on a Thursday get-a-way day. I hate the slate.
I am thinking Milw tonight somehow cause I wanna pretend I'm sharp

Your bet is correct imo. I’m gonna be a little different cause I am a lil different


Sawks F5 -0.5 -120
I have an irrational respect for Nats bullpen
I should have put a yoshida hit prop in there but I forgot

Mariners F5 -0.5 -145
Weird bullpen thing for Royals and everyone sees it too. I ought to be punished

[Dan Druff]

Sanlmar posting a lot of good ones lately, even though the Sawks disappointed today. Same with BCR. I keep posting different picks, and am losing them all.

Much like poker losing streaks, it's a combination of bad luck (yesterday should've been a win) and pressing.

The SD/Arizona game tonight is interesting. It features Rich Hill, who hasn't gotten out of the 4th inning in his past 2 starts (and wasn't pitching well before that), and Zac Gallen, who was lights out for the first half of the season, and then became mediocre for five straight starts from early July to early August. Last time out, he looked back to his former self, and shut out the Padres for 6 innings.

The ploppies LOVE Arizona tonight. They get All-Star Zac Gallen against 43-year-old Rich Hill, who appears to finally be finished. And they get a small dog price! What a steal!

But this has trap written all over it. The money is more on the Padres, while the number of tickets are more on Arizona -- one of the indicators that the sharp bettors like SD and the ploppies like AZ.

Does this mean I like SD? Not really. There's no doubt that Rich Hill is bordering on useless. In his last 10 starts, the best he's done was give up 2 ER. In 8 of those 10 starts, he lasted fewer than 6 innings. In 3 of the past 4, he didn't make it through five innings. The only thing to his credit is that the only complete bombing was on August 6th against the Dodgers, which of course happens to a lot of pitchers these days. Additionally, Gallen shut down these same Padres last time out. So do I really like Hill at a small favorite line today? Nope.

I think the safer bet is a first-5 over. You'll notice that BOL has the strange O4 -145 line. That's indicative they're trying to push sharps away from betting on it, rather than simply moving it to 4.5. Good sign.

Don't bet it on BOL. Look elsewhere. I have a book taking 4.5 -110, and I see it elsewhere, as well.


San Diego (Hill) vs Arizona (Gallen) - OVER 4.5 -110 - FIRST 5 INNINGS

[ftpjesus]

The SD/Arizona game tonight is interesting. It features Rich Hill, who hasn't gotten out of the 4th inning in his past 2 starts (and wasn't pitching well before that), and Zac Gallen, who was lights out for the first half of the season, and then became mediocre for five straight starts from early July to early August. Last time out, he looked back to his former self, and shut out the Padres for 6 innings.

The ploppies LOVE Arizona tonight. They get All-Star Zac Gallen against 43-year-old Rich Hill, who appears to finally be finished. And they get a small dog price! What a steal!

But this has trap written all over it. The money is more on the Padres, while the number of tickets are more on Arizona -- one of the indicators that the sharp bettors like SD and the ploppies like AZ.

Does this mean I like SD? Not really. There's no doubt that Rich Hill is bordering on useless. In his last 10 starts, the best he's done was give up 2 ER. In 8 of those 10 starts, he lasted fewer than 6 innings. In 3 of the past 4, he didn't make it through five innings. The only thing to his credit is that the only complete bombing was on August 6th against the Dodgers, which of course happens to a lot of pitchers these days. Additionally, Gallen shut down these same Padres last time out. So do I really like Hill at a small favorite line today? Nope.

I think the safer bet is a first-5 over. You'll notice that BOL has the strange O4 -145 line. That's indicative they're trying to push sharps away from betting on it, rather than simply moving it to 4.5. Good sign.

Don't bet it on BOL. Look elsewhere. I have a book taking 4.5 -110, and I see it elsewhere, as well.


San Diego (Hill) vs Arizona (Gallen) - OVER 4.5 -110 - FIRST 5 INNINGS

I admit Im a little biased here. Although the dumpster fire bed shitting the Dbacks have done since the ASG going from the Division lead to 3rd has been fugly. I do believe theyve turned it around a little. Gallen seems to have just had a shit streak of his own and is returning back to his baseline where he was most of the earlier season. If Gallen can get through 6 ideally 7 they win this game. If he cant theyre fucked because the bullpen remains a farce other then then new closer dude they got from Seattle.

[Dan Druff]

Lolz 2 perfect innings on both sides. Who'd have thunk it?

Only upside is that 11 of 12 batters hit the ball, only 1 K so far.

[country978]

Does anyone want to get an NFL season pool going or does anyone have one that I might join?

[Dan Druff]

Looks like I'm gonna lose by 0.5 again unless Ha Seong Kim can get it done.

[Dan Druff]

Yup. 6 balls hit off Gallen at 100+ mph off the bat, but only 1 run for the Padres.

Even Kim's out was hard hit, but directly to the right fielder.

Running so awful.

[Sanlmar]

Sanlmar posting a lot of good ones lately, even though the Sawks disappointed today.

Chris Sale was out for a while with a shoulder issue. He returned in a game against Detroit essentially without any prior rehab. Sale is an insane person and you just accept his process. I stayed off that game vs Detroit where he collected 7 strikeouts and his velocity was great. My discipline will be rewarded, right?

Today his fastball was 90-91.5 Not what I expected and that stuff didn’t play.

I’ll take the L and move on. Except I can’t ….

I’m up in NH and I keep forgetting I’m cut off with this state by state legalized nonsense. I cashed out of BetOnline recently after a decade without considering the travel ramifications.

Oops. Completely spaced on that.

[ftpjesus]

Told ya if Gallen got through 6 they win and it held. Surprised they gave the closer the day off but back to back saves against Colorado he kinda earned it. Three in a row for the Dbacks. Kinda surprising after how July went for them and first part of August. Suddenly they’re getting up off the matt at the refs count of 9 to try and get a WC slot after all maybe. 1 game out with a logjam ahead of them literally pct points between 3 teams for the last slot and 1 G back sits AZ. SD is potentially going to fall off if they can’t win this series 5 games out now could be 7 games out if AZ sweeps with 38 to play. Padres would be cooked. Then the question is who is the bigger failure this year SD or the Mets.

The Dbacks could be a major threat if they get to the playoffs. They have currently 2
Of the top 4 pitchers ERA wise in the NL only Blake Snell of SD and Steele of Cubs have better ERAs. But they must find a third solid pitcher because praying for a rookie to suddenly catch fire is a dubious hope. Pfaadt could be the pitcher but hes still scaring me. Last two games pitched well. Not convinced yet otherwise.

The biggest issue is if their offense can return to form Walker has been on fire 4 HRs in Colorado while great…it’s Colorado. Carrol needs to return to get closer to how he was playing first half of the season when he was considered to be a legit top candidate for NLROY. Perdomo legit came on but has regressed, the new primary catcher is a beast. They’re ahead of schedule clearly. If they can finish well sneak into the WC even if they get smashed by the Dodgers in the NLDS nobody’s going to mistake them for pushovers next year.

Side note put a hundo on the Orioles to win the AL Pennant and go to the WS. 40 yrs ago they won it all and I was 9 almost 10. Came close a few times to making it. 96 left a shit taste in my mouth with the Yankees. I’m probably going to slap down another to win the WS. This is their best shot and I think they might just bring in back to BMore. (Baltimore has always been my first baseball team and I have tickets for the entire series when they come here to AZ Labor Day weekend. Going to be tough but I’ll take a Dbacks win series 2-1 since they’ll likely need it more).

[Dan Druff]

Colorado (Lambert) -123 vs White Sox (Kopech)

[Dan Druff]

12-1 Rockies in the 7th.

I think it's finally over, gentlemen.

[NickyPipes]

Forget what thread it was in but very impressive back yard Sonantine, you are a rich man with a beautiful yard, what boat do you park there pal?

[NickyPipes]

Sanlmar*

The guy lives in a palace in a village by the sea

[tgull]

Guy on a sports talk show I was listening to was saying the Tigers tonight is a strong pick since the pitcher for the Tigers has been on a roll his last three starts. Did not get his name, and not betting since I can't watch tonight, but there is that, he was going money line on the Tigers.

[Sanlmar]

Forget what thread it was in but very impressive back yard Sonantine, you are a rich man with a beautiful yard, what boat do you park there pal?

Thanks pal.

Two Regals. One is 19’ and the other on the lift is 26’. Older than you think (like me). Unlike me they don’t become less valuable over time. Fresh water anyway.

I’m falling in love with old Chris Craft boats. Wood or wooden decks. They are a thing on the lake.

One of the kids pulled in with the jet ski and sucked a rope into the inlet which hides a prop. The jet ski is 20 years old and I can’t find a replacement prop shaft. I think it’s toast.

I didn’t say a word. Shit happens. Thats growth for me pal.

Gonna need to start betting and winning or I’m gonna need to learn to swim.

[Dan Druff]

Here's a weird situation regarding a betting line.

When was the last time you saw an over .500 team with a +174 line against an under .500 team?

The Marlins are 5 games ahead of the Padres in the standings, yet you can get +174 tonight on the Marlins. Why? Because the Marlins have Randy Weathers going, who has had one good start in his last 8, and the Padres have Michael Wacha, who allowed 0-2 ER every single game since early May, then got injured in mid-July, and then came right back on August 15 and pitched well against first-place Baltimore.

I still don't understand Wacha's comeback, where he sucked for 3 straight years, and suddenly at age 31 he bounces back and has 2 very good seasons.

Anyway, I don't recall a team 5 games ahead of the other, being a +174 dog.

Not betting it though.

[Sanlmar]

Here's a weird situation regarding a betting line.

When was the last time you saw an over .500 team with a +174 line against an under .500 team?

The Marlins are 5 games ahead of the Padres in the standings, yet you can get +174 tonight on the Marlins. Why? Because the Marlins have Randy Weathers going, who has had one good start in his last 8, and the Padres have Michael Wacha, who allowed 0-2 ER every single game since early May, then got injured in mid-July, and then came right back on August 15 and pitched well against first-place Baltimore.

I still don't understand Wacha's comeback, where he sucked for 3 straight years, and suddenly at age 31 he bounces back and has 2 very good seasons.

Anyway, I don't recall a team 5 games ahead of the other, being a +174 dog.

Not betting it though.

It’s the pitcher and 8 other guys.

Mariners and Padres garden variety ploppy parlay. RL Mariners too. Didn’t do a lot of thinking tbh. We consider the Mariners autobet to still be in force.

The stench of past posting was in the air so a lil Lysol here