also boots on the ground tidbit; friend put his house on the market a couple of weeks ago. LA suburb. zillow estimate at like 1.4m. was worried because everyones been saying the boom has been over for a couple of months etc etc.
first offer was market price and it arrived within 48 hours. then, before they had time to sign, they got a counter offer for market + 5%. cash deal from a developer, they are going to demo the place and build a mcmansion there basically and flip it to basketball players or something i guess. escrow arrived a few days later.
point being.. we love to obsess about the data coming out of areas that represent the highest outlier trends, and we assume that when those places revert to mean, somehow it will be some sort of meaningful market-wide epoch defining event.
but i get the feeling that if we re-scale those trends to reflect not volume of transactions or delta between houses available then and now or even house price, and focus entirely on how much actual money got spent, the peaks and valleys we love to spaz about would look less dramatic, not more.
or druff is 100% right and everything collapses 40%+ across the board. but without some sort of specific catalyst that radically alters the economic/social fabric of america, eg the US military invading mexico and wiping out fentanyl / meth production AND someone binking a one time coronavirus shot that lets everyone move back to the cities or, i dont see anything 'fixing' housing prices as much as just using them as some sort of anchor for other economic initiatives, eg bleeding excess liquidity out of the economy over the course of a decade or two.