Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #32541
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    11071
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    58,758
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    108576296
    Yeah I'm skipping both. Detroit just doesn't seem to lose big often (they even kept it very close last 2 games against Wizards and Pistons, despite Grant missing all of one game and most of the other). On the flip side, Dallas just doesn't blow out opponents very often, and is also inconsistent (they've had some massive losses in the past few weeks).

    Maybe I'll see both of these games end up with 21+ margins, but this just doesn't really fit my model, so I'll pass.

  2. #32542
    Silver Sandwich's Avatar
    Reputation
    66
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    974
    Load Metric
    108576296
    Good non-bet. Detroit kept it close, and led most of the game. Dallas blew the Lakers out but sat players and let it get closer in the 4th Q.

    I’m intrigued by the strategy— Hawks or Pelicans road blowouts tonight maybe?

  3. #32543
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    11071
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    58,758
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    108576296
    Quote Originally Posted by Sandwich View Post
    Good non-bet. Detroit kept it close, and led most of the game. Dallas blew the Lakers out but sat players and let it get closer in the 4th Q.

    I’m intrigued by the strategy— Hawks or Pelicans road blowouts tonight maybe?
    Was considering Hawks but decided not to. First, the Hawks are mediocre, and second, they don't win blowouts a lot. Their last blowout win was February 26. For the same reasons I stayed away from the two yesterday (which was wise), I didn't like this one. However, Atlanta is up 27 at the half, so I obviously regret not betting it. This isn't a lock, though, as big halftime leads often lead to early trash time, which can make the game finish at an under-21-point margin.

    I'm still deciding on the Blazers. Portland, which is current the most blown-out team in the NBA by a wide margin, actually keeps it a lot closer against below-average teams. It's against the good teams where it seems the -20.5 is money.

    Since Feb 24, Portland has lost by 21+ against Golden State (pre-Curry injury), Denver, Phoenix, Minnesota, Utah, Indiana, New York, and San Antonio. They've covered +21 against Minnesota (but got blown out next game against them), Washington, Atlanta, Brookyln, Detroit, Houston (twice), and OKC.

    That means Portland is 1-5 against the +21 spread against good teams, 2-3 against the +21 spread against mediocre teams, and 4-0 against the +21 spread against bad teams, since 2/24/22.

    New Orleans falls into the "mediocre" category (though on the lower end of it), and we're only getting +215 for this one, since the normal spread is -14.5.

    I'm still analyzing this one in other ways, and I'l get back to you shortly.

  4. #32544
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    11071
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    58,758
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    108576296
    Okay, I'm a bit late to the party -- the line was much better earlier, but I decided I like it.

    New Orleans -20.5 +215 vs. Portland

    Regular line is -15 now, so you're only needing another 6 points.

     
    Comments
      
      Sandwich:

  5. #32545
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
    Reputation
    2896
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    10,966
    Load Metric
    108576296
    I think Rory and Cam Smith cover a lot of ground next weekend. Either one of them winning wouldn’t surprise me.

    I think “at the odds” both Im and Lowry are both attractive. They play this 50 times and I could see both winning once if not more.

  6. #32546
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    11071
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    58,758
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    108576296
    Well Atlanta didn't cover the 21. Good pass!

    However I should've passed on NO. They aren't playing well, game has been close the whole way.


  7. #32547
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    11071
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    58,758
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    108576296
    Lakers with no AD/Lebron again. Jazz had a brutal road trip where they went 0-5, falling to under .500 on the road, but 26-11 at home. Note that the altittude in Salt Lake City is 4200, and is enough to make players more tired if they're not used to it.

    Utah in danger of falling into 7th seed, which would force them into that play-in tournament.

    I smell a beatdown coming.

    Utah -20.5 +250 vs Lakers

     
    Comments
      
      Rayo88:
      
      Sanlmar: Nothing says quit like LeBron and the Lakers …. Great idea

  8. #32548
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    11071
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    58,758
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    108576296
    We need 7 points in the 4th

  9. #32549
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    11071
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    58,758
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    108576296
    Jazz had an 18 point lead but now Lakers hitting every shot and it's down to 10 with 5.5 min remaining. Not good.

    Couldn't quite pull away into a blowout.

  10. #32550
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    11071
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    58,758
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    108576296
    Had another shot. Up 18 with 2 min left & the ball. Nope. Steal & 3 hit, that's that.

    Oh well. These are +250 for a reason.


  11. #32551
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4730
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    23,287
    Load Metric
    108576296
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Had another shot. Up 18 with 2 min left & the ball. Nope. Steal & 3 hit, that's that.

    Oh well. These are +250 for a reason.

    Made me look Druff.

    So where is your buddy, LeBron? Can’t travel with the team and get treatment like the other guys on IR? Filming a commercial?

    You think LeBron will play another game this year now that the writing is on the wall? Prolly not. My hero

    I skimmed that Athletic article that chronicals the smoking rubble that results from LeBron joining a given team. Fun romp.

    Kobe>LeBron just to name one of many such players better than the self proclaimed GOAT
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 03-31-2022 at 10:42 PM.

  12. #32552
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4730
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    23,287
    Load Metric
    108576296
    There is suddenly so much 80’s/90’s Lakers Celtics stuff out there. ESPN has a new multipart series.

    Now I see promos for a Hulu series about the old Lakers. Unfortunately, I saw it was produced by Jeannie Buss so I’m concerned it’s just a cheesy infomercial.

    The game was so real back then. Jerry West was so scarred emotionally from losing to the Celtics that he refused to travel as an executive to watch Lakers Celtics in Boston. The man bled for the competition and the sport. These days the opponents fondle each others balls pre and post game and make dinner dates.

    LeBron is the perfect faggot for his times. He brings shame to the Lakers legacy



    Hockey is a sport where the athletes hate their opponents enough to knock their teeth out in a fight during play. Fucks are given.

    I just heard a story about a player on the visiting team getting involved in a collision on the ice. The player bit though his own tongue. He could put his finger through it. So he skates off. He needs the doctor from the home team to sew it up. The player is pissed that the doctor is dragging his feet to keep this star player from returning. Well, he gets sewed up and does indeed return to play.

    This player is on a liquid diet while he’s healing yet still suits up each game. You listening LeBron? That kind of commitment to competition is why I quit the NBA and you.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 04-01-2022 at 12:05 AM.

  13. #32553
    Diamond TheXFactor's Avatar
    Reputation
    1286
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    7,241
    Load Metric
    108576296
    The Can’t-Lose Betting Strategy That’s Taking the Gamble Out of Sports Gambling

    Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel, and others have been handing out untold millions in sign-up bonuses. Coupon-clipping types are playing them against each other to make risk-free bets.


    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...k-for-new-edge

    Money for nothing. Betting for free.



     
    Comments
      
      Sanlmar: Enjoyed that read

  14. #32554
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4730
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    23,287
    Load Metric
    108576296
    Lakers game & season possible choke atm.

  15. #32555
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4730
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    23,287
    Load Metric
    108576296
    Name:  613DAA3E-8C03-4622-9B90-EBC342721E4A.jpeg
Views: 240
Size:  232.7 KB

     
    Comments
      
      Sandwich: expired bets April Fools rep. Those cheeky BetMGM bastards.

  16. #32556
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
    Reputation
    2896
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    10,966
    Load Metric
    108576296
    For those of you who are cutting coupons I have a 50% off on S Im. He’s in the 37-1 neighborhood on true exchanges. I’ve seen some locals hanging him at 75-1. He’s got a half decent shot to win, far from 75-1.

    I just got SW Kim at 95-1 - he should be 50-1 tops.

    Other players who you can get a deal on who also have a legit shot to win are Fitzgerald, Lowry & Neimann

    Smith going off at 14-1 - hope you all were able to get in.

  17. #32557
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
    Reputation
    2896
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    10,966
    Load Metric
    108576296
    If JT or Koepka win this week half the locals that take golf action will have to close up shop.0

  18. #32558
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
    Reputation
    2014
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    10,796
    Load Metric
    108576296
    I posted this in another thread but the move to legalized sites in Ontario brought up an odd situation.

    Sites were not allowed to have any single bets open. No futures, no games, nadda.

    Bets, futures were refunded if in a losing position or cashed out at whatever value the site deemed fair.

    IE> if you bet on Florida to win their division you likely got pretty close to 90% of the winning bet.



    I do wonder how much money the books had to eat on losing futures. Bets on next year's NFL might not affect them that much but there has to be tons of losing NHL/NBA futures that people are now receiving back as refunds.

  19. #32559
    Silver
    Reputation
    208
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    858
    Load Metric
    108576296
    Hey Jeff Dime,

    Lydia Ko says to take her in the Lotte Championship scheduled for next week, she always does well in Hawaii.

    I guess she's skipping the LA tournament later this month.
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  20. #32560
    Bronze
    Reputation
    72
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    349
    Load Metric
    108576296
    Tournament has been top notch as usual. Duke NC game an instant classic lead changing hands over and over again. Good run Coach K they had a couple close calls before the Final 4. NC has answered the bell every time and beat a handful of top 20 teams to get here. Love, Mannek, Bacon all playing great and free rolling to be here. KU kept winning in the Big 12 Tourney and every round before their studs got it going. Well the last 2 games they have found it and are playing their best ball. Lets close with a winner.

    Kansas -2 1st half, Kansas under 71.5, Kansas -200 ML, Kansas -4 . Its been a good tourney, we gambling last game.

    Small plays on Leafs +130, and under 6.5 -115 only cause the number looked decent. Hockey gurus lets start pahticipating, I have no clue. Is there better info at stock site?(whats url)

    Baseball on deck who's excited?

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 17 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 17 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Offers of thought on this one needed.
    By son of lockman in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 17
    Last Post: 09-20-2013, 04:54 PM
  2. Sportsbook suggestions
    By Walter Sobchak in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 02-02-2013, 11:04 AM
  3. negotiating compensation from job offers
    By mulva in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 11-12-2012, 09:17 PM
  4. Best Sportsbook on the strip ?
    By FrenchJew in forum Poker Community Discussion
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 06-09-2012, 11:50 AM
  5. Vwls-Props for doing radio and making it interesting!
    By Pokehermaniac in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 06-01-2012, 08:36 PM

Tags for this Thread