*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Sanlmar]

So speaking of light regulation, NY now has legalized sports wagering as of the other day. 51% tax on revenue. I believe Penn was 34% and NJ (Chris Christie) 14% for quick comps.

It is aledged that books will offer 110 lines. I just don’t understand.

I also heard that promotions are not allowed by the state. Now that is interesting. How will NJ respond. There’s gonna be war between the states.

PA/Jersey/NY is the mother lode in the US and if they are tearing each other apart certainly shared player pools can’t be far behind.

We need JeffDime to weigh in here.

In the meantime, I think I got one good year in me before my state approves sports wagering. I will have lived thru the poker boom and the golden age of sports wagering. What’s next?

[BCR]

Back on Cavs -5.5

[Kalam]

Wiz/Bulls O224.5
Cavs/Blazers O215.5
Hawks/Lakers O230.5

YOLO

[Dan Druff]

Back on Cavs -5.5

Co-signed.

Except I got Cavs -6 because I slept on it too long.

[Kalam]

So speaking of light regulation, NY now has legalized sports wagering as of the other day. 51% tax on revenue. I believe Penn was 34% and NJ (Chris Christie) 14% for quick comps.

It is aledged that books will offer 110 lines. I just don’t understand.

I also heard that promotions are not allowed by the state. Now that is interesting. How will NJ respond. There’s gonna be war between the states.

PA/Jersey/NY is the mother lode in the US and if they are tearing each other apart certainly shared player pools can’t be far behind.

We need JeffDime to weigh in here.

In the meantime, I think I got one good year in me before my state approves sports wagering. I will have lived thru the poker boom and the golden age of sports wagering. What’s next?

That is just sides and totals. The books hold on all the parlays, teasers, futures, props, etc. is WAY higher. In RJ Bells Dream Preview Podcast one of the guys (named Steve Fezzik who won the SuperContest 2 times) who is a professional sports bettor says despite the fact that pretty much all the pros are beating the Nevada sports books, the books themselves are actually doing very well on account of the recreational players making massive -EV bets much worse than -110. And my understanding is the regulated East Coast books offer even worse odds on that kind of stuff.

[Sanlmar]

Shotgun all Canes options and derivatives. It’s too pure. I’m obviously scared.

Hurricanes 6-3

Reg/ML/PL all Winners

[Sanlmar]

Back on Cavs -5.5

Gotta be a reason.

I got the best price of you guys. Shouldn’t matter.

[BCR]

Back on Cavs -5.5

Co-signed.

Except I got Cavs -6 because I slept on it too long.

Back on Cavs -5.5

Gotta be a reason.

I got the best price of you guys. Shouldn’t matter.

God we missed every free throw, got out scored on second chance points like 20-4, and were amazingly lethargic. Can’t believe we won that bet. Thought that was going down. God bless Cedi Osman for coming back tonight. I was ready to pay for his ticket back to Istanbul last year, and he’s been very good this year.

[Kalam]

San

The RJ bell dream preview is handicapping nfl, so you basically just missed the entire season, although they will do some playoff pods too.

But yeah, if you want to listen to a podcast that discusses high level nfl handicapping for strictly betting purposes, it is a solid listen.

[Kalam]

I sheeped you guys on Cavs -6, so went 3-1, although missing the Cavs under by 0.5 pts hurt.

I didn’t watch the game at all and just looked at the box score, but somehow it seemed the Cavs had the ball the last 50 seconds and only took one shot. The math doesn’t really work out on that. But I am guessing the scoreboard keeper was just tying to go home and the clock was running, and no one but I’ve bettors really cares.

[BCR]

I sheeped you guys on Cavs -6, so went 3-1, although missing the Cavs under by 0.5 pts hurt.

I didn’t watch the game at all and just looked at the box score, but somehow it seemed the Cavs had the ball the last 50 seconds and only took one shot. The math doesn’t really work out on that. But I am guessing the scoreboard keeper was just tying to go home and the clock was running, and no one but I’ve bettors really cares.

You got really unlucky at the end. With like a minute left, Mobley had ball under hoop, fed Allen, and he missed a bunny or fumbled it and then both teams did the we are too cool to shoot in double digit game and dribbled out the clock thing for last two possessions. I immediately looked at your other two bets and was relieved you had two good ones. You should have had clean sweep.

[Kalam]

I sheeped you guys on Cavs -6, so went 3-1, although missing the Cavs under by 0.5 pts hurt.

I didn’t watch the game at all and just looked at the box score, but somehow it seemed the Cavs had the ball the last 50 seconds and only took one shot. The math doesn’t really work out on that. But I am guessing the scoreboard keeper was just tying to go home and the clock was running, and no one but I’ve bettors really cares.

You got really unlucky at the end. With like a minute left, Mobley had ball under hoop, fed Allen, and he missed a bunny or fumbled it and then both teams did the we are too cool to shoot in double digit game and dribbled out the clock thing for last two possessions. I immediately looked at your other two bets and was relieved you had two good ones. You should have had clean sweep.

Glad I wasn't watching, sounds like I definitely would have gotten my feathers rustled. Although I remember seeing there was something like 10 points scored within a 15 second span with 2 minutes left in the game just to get it to that point, so without that it isn't even close to begin with.

Maybe it is just positive variance, but I have been targeting overs in the late games with all these G League lineups and it seems to be doing well. Although I wasn't watching last night, I have watched a lot of theses games, and it seems what happens is a lot of these guys who aren't necessarily NBA talent can still shoot 3's very well; so they go up against poor defenses (which is understandable because a lot of patchwork lineups with players who weren't even on the team 2 weeks ago), and they take and make a lot of open 3's. I remember one Miami-Portland game in particular where Miami lineup was almost completely non NBA talent, but they lit up Portland at the 3 point line and game went comfortable over.

[Tellafriend]

You got really unlucky at the end. With like a minute left, Mobley had ball under hoop, fed Allen, and he missed a bunny or fumbled it and then both teams did the we are too cool to shoot in double digit game and dribbled out the clock thing for last two possessions. I immediately looked at your other two bets and was relieved you had two good ones. You should have had clean sweep.

Glad I wasn't watching, sounds like I definitely would have gotten my feathers rustled. Although I remember seeing there was something like 10 points scored within a 15 second span with 2 minutes left in the game just to get it to that point, so without that it isn't even close to begin with.

Maybe it is just positive variance, but I have been targeting overs in the late games with all these G League lineups and it seems to be doing well. Although I wasn't watching last night, I have watched a lot of theses games, and it seems what happens is a lot of these guys who aren't necessarily NBA talent can still shoot 3's very well; so they go up against poor defenses (which is understandable because a lot of patchwork lineups with players who weren't even on the team 2 weeks ago), and they take and make a lot of open 3's. I remember one Miami-Portland game in particular where Miami lineup was almost completely non NBA talent, but they lit up Portland at the 3 point line and game went comfortable over.

Verm - we are due your NFL picks for today.

[Kalam]

Glad I wasn't watching, sounds like I definitely would have gotten my feathers rustled. Although I remember seeing there was something like 10 points scored within a 15 second span with 2 minutes left in the game just to get it to that point, so without that it isn't even close to begin with.

Maybe it is just positive variance, but I have been targeting overs in the late games with all these G League lineups and it seems to be doing well. Although I wasn't watching last night, I have watched a lot of theses games, and it seems what happens is a lot of these guys who aren't necessarily NBA talent can still shoot 3's very well; so they go up against poor defenses (which is understandable because a lot of patchwork lineups with players who weren't even on the team 2 weeks ago), and they take and make a lot of open 3's. I remember one Miami-Portland game in particular where Miami lineup was almost completely non NBA talent, but they lit up Portland at the 3 point line and game went comfortable over.

Verm - we are due your NFL picks for today.

I actually have nothing on today's games. I probably will randomly bet something last minute like I often do, but as of yet nothing. Really hard to gauge motivation to win (which is a very important component this week) for all 4 teams today. If you have any insight I would love to hear some.

For example, does anyone think Philly has any motivation to win (or lose) to get a specific matchup in round 1? Tampa/Dallas/Az all have looked vulnerable in the last few weeks, and I dont see why Philly would be trying to avoid any of these teams.

[JeffDime]

So it’s DK, Fanduel & Caesars. FD & DK maybe $100 bucks for existing accounts and I’m not sure of that yet. But Caesars is really offering up to $3300 in free bets. I am still not sure if these will be treated as site credits (100% equity) or traditional free bets (50% equity). Trying to sort everything out. I wonder if FD and/or DK will budge with what Caesars is offering.

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/CaesarsSports/status/1479817405954203648

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/CaesarsSports/status/1479835377099755522

[JeffDime]

It’s apparent DK & FD don’t want to give away play to those of us who have been betting in Jersey for years now. I can’t say I blame them. We are betting anyways. But at least Ceasers is enticing bettors to their platform even if they been using the Jersey app.

[simpdog]

if you win your free bet do you get a free tax form with it?

[JeffDime]

if you win your free bet do you get a free tax form with it?

Luckily the bettors aren’t paying the 51% Simp. Be tough to pay since 99% are losing bettors.

[Sanlmar]

It’s apparent DK & FD don’t want to give away play to those of us who have been betting in Jersey for years now. I can’t say I blame them. We are betting anyways. But at least Ceasers is enticing bettors to their platform even if they been using the Jersey app.

There is no flipping way the 51% vs 14% difference will be transparent to the customer. The lines are going to differ.

I just can’t do the math in my head. How can NY offer 110 lines? I’m serious. I don’t understand.

-140 teasers? I can’t wait for the reports

Extremely interesting though.

[Sanlmar]

I need some help today. I got nothing so far.