August was just a continuation of a trend.Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I've read this rant 3 times and don't understand the point.You could use Druff’s post as a thread starter in itself. There is just so much wrong you have to start small.
When I have time I will address this simplistic misconception. Familiarize yourself with the JOLT report.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf.
From the second page.
4.3 million people QUIT their jobs in August. This is the biggest number since this data has been collected in 2000.
From the first paragraph of the page I provided you. 2.9% of all employees quit in August. Think about that. That was not equally distributed across all industries of course. It was focused primarily on service and restaurants. WHY MIGHT THAT BE DRUFF?
We can talk about the massive infusion of capital that was pumped into the system (Trump) and the opportunities that are present now that don’t include waitressing varied hours every week with no benefits or TRUCKING.
Think about how profound this JOLTS number is and if you still hang on to the lazy American narrative I can’t help you.
Like the housing crisis we never really suffered an appropriate economic setback considering what occurred last year. We will pay for it in the future. Kicking the can down the road. Yes, I took the PPP money. It was wrong though. Your labor problem is a symptom.
I don't know why so many people quit jobs in August, but I'm guessing because there were a ton of unqualified people working in August, and when you suck at your job, your job also sucks.
Are you telling me you were getting the same customer service experience in August 2021 as you were in August 2019? I'm sure you weren't. It's like I was dropped in an alternate universe where the incidence of incompetent service employees is about 5x higher. The local In-N-Out is even having major service issues -- something I hadn't seen at any In-N-Out in my 30 years of going there.
This isn't even our main problem. It's something which irks me a lot, but the average American is much more bothered by inflation and lack of availability. If things which used to be easy become hard, people get upset. That's the story of 2021.
Nobody is going to care about Trump's rally rants if shelves are bare, everything is expensive, and gas is $5/gallon.
You need to wade into “The Great Resignation”. If you live your life online or on TikTok you may be oblivious to some massive job disruption.
Let me take a stab at the elevator pitch. The pandemic shut down the restaurant/service industry. People also worked from home. As they get called back they no longer suffer from job inertia. My job sucks but it’s familiar. The massive fiscal borrowing and the monetary money creation facilitated a lot of expansion and new job opportunities. Capital was free and as well asset price explosion allowed crazy business investment. More jobs.
Now I have to offer more money to fill my new vacancy. Someone else quits to grab my now more lucrative job opening. So on and so on.
The last and least desirable sector is restaurants and service.
In our business we’ve had people quit. We know where they went. We can’t fill our openings. The work isn’t especially appealing and the money ain’t great. The people who held the position previously were there for quite a while. They were furloughed like everyone else and elected shortly after their return to get a better gig. We simply refuse to raise wages. We can’t change our cost structure right now. So the job goes begging. We are toughing it out by making the family pick up those shifts for free.
Here’s a wage chart. Focus on the red trend lines. Wages have not risen this fast since data was first collected in 2007.
Let me help you with your Republican victory. Inflation. Here’s now all the fiscal stimulus worked its way through the system. The wealthy touched the money first. Asset prices (stocks, commodities, real estate) rose. Then the wealthy bought stuff and prices rose. Finally and lastly wages rise.
You following the growing number of striking workers?
Increased wages only help you pay for stuff that already went up.
Inflation is going to upset the masses. They don’t understand the process started in 2020 when everyone was impressed with how well the stock market was doing or how their house price went up. That was phase one.
Folks are gonna tell you inflation is transitory and they will be proven wrong. Sticking to our subject … wage costs never go down. Wages are sticky.
So yeah, In and Out service sucks.. They sell hamburgers for almost free. Remember the Dollar Menu? Taco Bell sold tacos for $1. Well, labor was free. Their costs are near zero. That’s all gonna change or they will die. They too will raise wages or change how they deliver their shitty product. The previous workers got better paying jobs. A lot of them are now contract workers - a segment that didn’t really exist previously like it does today.
Maybe the fast food industry dies..
The second thing that will kill Democrats is the growing conflict and power rebalancing between Russia/China and the US. People are not gonna love losing our former superior position as the world leader. I’m pretty convinced there will be conflict right around the elections.
Cheer up. War, inflation and a loss of worldwide prestige should bode well for Republican chances.
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