Druff did a good job breaking this down in other thread explaining that really only a few events mattered (low entry). The big question was trying to calculate Ivey and Daniel's ROI. All they really needed was to be 2-3 times (ROI 100-200) to make it an easy profitable bet for them. If they were 15x more likely this bet is like -1000 for them.
ROI is not relevant. Ability to win is.