Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post

GB doesn't have as much usability as you think.

Their last two games were losses to the Browns and a tie with the Cowboys.

Anyway, GB only has the following usable home games coming up, besides this week: Panthers 11/2, Bears 12/7. Maybe Ravens in second-to-last week if they still have their present issues. The rest are all road games or games against teams you'd really not want to pick them.

Hopefully you didn't take Philly. I briefly considered it today, but I didn't like it for future value reasons, road reasons, and regional rivalry reasons.

Every good team has at least one choke/fail under their belt so far. I think this season it's wise to stay away from road games, as much as possible. My quick 5-ticket loss in week 3 was due to trusting 2 road teams.

I don't trust LV at all. Pitts has been better than expected, but I don't trust them either. Washington is just baffling.

I'm considering Rams, but I'm leaning Packers.

I went Pitt. I am taking a gambol. If I survive this week my team will be miles ahead in remaining teams equity with only 34 to go (lot different situation in circa). A GB loss may very well win it for me this week, or come close.

I agree on your outlook on GB but I think on the road at Giants is a possibility of a TD fav.

Whats interesting is you specifically called out week 17. I hope Balt falls completely apart and I am the only one left with GB not picked. Week 17 is by far the most difficult week to project this season. I don't see a matchup where anyone is greater than a 5 point favorite currently. We a long way off from week 17 but i have my eye on this.
SF is a viable pick on W17, presumably.

Next week is going to be a challenge. I could chalk it again with KC (they seem to have their own issues, and may not be a reliable "good team" pick going forward), and I mapped out a way to have a lot of good home picks most of the way, even with GB/KC taken in W6/7.

But yeah your contest is different than Circa. And I only have 1 ticket left, so I don't want to fancy play myself out of this too early.

I just made sure to map out a path to where I don't completely fuck myself.

I don't think one gains much taking Rams this week, as they will be useful in week 9 at home vs NO. Same thing with Denver, who has good matchups in W7 at home vs NYG and W10 at home vs LV.

I really feel like this is a week where you don't get cute and just chalk it -- at least in Circa. I'll save Pitt for W11 vs Cincy, at which point Burrow will almost surely still be out.