*** OFFICIAL *** NFL 2025-26 Thread

[Tellafriend]

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Grok:

Conclusion Yes, the post is likely true regarding the odds moving that much, based on the available evidence and the context of Micah Parsons’ trade impact. The Packers’ odds improving from 22-1 to 13-1 reflects their acquisition of a game-changing player, while the Cowboys’ drop from 50-1 to 60-1 mirrors their loss of a defensive cornerstone. These shifts are consistent with real-time betting market behavior, supported by web reports and Parsons’ proven value. For absolute confirmation, checking BetMGM’s live odds as of 08:10 PM EDT would be ideal, but the reported changes are plausible and align with the narrative.

[VaughnP]

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Grok:

Conclusion Yes, the post is likely true regarding the odds moving that much, based on the available evidence and the context of Micah Parsons’ trade impact. The Packers’ odds improving from 22-1 to 13-1 reflects their acquisition of a game-changing player, while the Cowboys’ drop from 50-1 to 60-1 mirrors their loss of a defensive cornerstone. These shifts are consistent with real-time betting market behavior, supported by web reports and Parsons’ proven value. For absolute confirmation, checking BetMGM’s live odds as of 08:10 PM EDT would be ideal, but the reported changes are plausible and align with the narrative.

That's a little ridiculous. Let the Packers pay him 45 million a year. His reputation here in Texas is that of a low IQ, bad teammate that's possibly already declining and owes a big part of his success to the defensive scheme. Good riddance.

[VaughnP]

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https://twitter.com/SkipBaylessShow/status/1961204328661651541

Just not seeing this guy being worth anywhere near QB money.

[gut]

Micah Parsons to the Packers: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-188m-contract


Anyone bullish on Dallas should rethink it.

Dallas got back two first round picks and defensive tackle Kenny Clark.

I mean....thats not a bad return. Clark is a quality DT.

[VaughnP]

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https://twitter.com/NickHarrisFWST/status/1961221030501929098

If they had matched Green Bay's offer the Cowboys legitimately would have had the two most overpaid players in the league.

[gut]

So many delusional takes out there, which is to be expected when its a trade between the media/fans hated/easy target Cowboys and everyones darling Packers.

Forget the names and teams, look at it in general. IMO, if youre gonna devote almost 50% of your cap to 3 stars at elite positions, I would want them all offense, all day. QB, WR, OT. Defensively, I'd rather spend on the shutdown corner than a pass rusher. It's so much easier to cobble together a group pass rush.

Look at, say, the last 5 super bowl winners. Not an elite edge rusher on any of them. Rams had freak of nature Aaron Donald at DT, and Chiefs had/have a poor mans version of Donald with Chris Jones. Philly had a whole talented group, same with Tampa.

Or alternatively look at Parsons' peers right now as the elite edge rushers. Watt, Garrett, Crosby. You know, from those dominant Steelers, Browns, and Raiders teams of the past 5 years.....

I don't doubt that the Packers are better right this minute, but they better win the big game this year or next.

[Jayjami]

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Just not seeing this guy being worth anywhere near QB money.

Remember what happened when my Niners traded a mentally ill Charles Hailey to the Cowboys? I sure do.

[BCR]

He will show you Druff

The QB situation is a mess, and it will get even trickier when DeShaun Watson comes back.

He is focused on the really important things now.

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https://twitter.com/twt/status/1961578361718792596

I want to never see this guy again.

[Kalam]

He will show you Druff

The QB situation is a mess, and it will get even trickier when DeShaun Watson comes back.

He is focused on the really important things now.

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https://twitter.com/twt/status/1961578361718792596

I want to never see this guy again.

Who do you like for today's slate.

Texas?

[BCR]

He will show you Druff


He is focused on the really important things now.

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https://twitter.com/twt/status/1961578361718792596

I want to never see this guy again.

Who do you like for today's slate.

Texas?

Me, proud Ohio State alum? Not unbiased here. I’m all over Buckeyes beyond reason. I like LSU tonight.

[Dan Druff]

So the season is just about to start.

Thursday night it's Dallas at Philly. Friday it's KC at the Chargers.

Anyway, I bought 6 tickets this year to the Circa Survivor. Last year I went balls out with 10 and lost $10k, so I'm not doing that again. 6 felt like the right number this year. No partners, just like last year. Only me.

Main reason I play this is because there's no rake plus a lot of legit dead money (some actually dead as they forget to pick and get disqualified, and some dead because they employ terrible strategy where they're highly unlikely to succeed).

Last year the "off the beaten path" pickers were the successful ones. The ones who picked a conventional (albeit sensible) path got stomped because of the unusual number of early season upsets. Myself included.

I'm still deciding how I approach this. I am thinking I will do at least a few tickets with an eclectic (but not stupid) selection of picks. There's probably value in that, as upsets get you a ton of equity with those tickets when you've picked something unusual.

I'll post some more Survivor thoughts in the next message.

[Dan Druff]

One of the more important basic strategy elements is "saving" good teams for Thanksgiving and Christmas, just in case you make it that far.

This year the Thanksgiving/Friday games are:
Green Bay @ Detroit
KC @ Dallas
Cincinnati @ Baltimore
Chicago @ Philly

Christmas games are:
Dallas @ Washington
Detroit @ Minnesota
Denver @ KC


The only fairly big favorite here is Philly on Black Friday, preliminarily lined at -7. Dallas is somewhat of a wildcard regarding how good/bad they're going to be, so I hate to count on them either way. Obviously the Parsons departure makes people bearish on them, understandably, but I'd still like to wait and see. Washington is another big question mark, for reasons we've already discussed.

Philly is the pretty obvious one to reserve for Thanksgiving, but what about Christmas? Denver might end up being a lot better than expected (shout out to Daly), and as I stated before, I could see KC coasting too much and blowing a game like that. At the same time, while Washington is the biggest favorite, I hate to count on that team so deep into the contest, especially if Dallas turns out to be decent. And do I really want the Lions on the road, against a respectable team? Very tough choices. I think I will avoid picking both Washington and Detroit early, so I can feel out the season and decide which one I want on Xmas, if I make it that far.

Now let's discuss week 1...

[Dan Druff]

I'm hoping to perhaps sell 1 or 2 tickets if I make it semi-deep with multiples, so I can be freerolling.

Having both KC and Philly still in the tank should increase the ticket's value.

That counts out both the Thursday and Friday games. Besides, I wouldn't waste the KC pick on a good team like the Chargers.

On Sunday/Monday, we have the following as the biggest favs:
Cincy -5 @ Cleveland
Arizona -6.5 @ New Orleans
Denver -8/8.5 vs Tennessee
Washington -6 vs NY Giants
Jacksonville --3/3.5 vs Carolina

Everything else is lined less than a field goal, aside from Rams -3 vs Texans, which is pretty amazing.

The obvious play -- and the one which will overwhelmingly be chosen -- is Denver. Most think the Titans are going to be a catastrophe, though I still believe they will overperform expectations (though not come close to being a winning team).

The Giants are another team I believe will do better than expected, and again, I would like to stay away from Washington until I see what's up with this year's squad. Also they've moved from -7 to -6.

Arizona is a bit scary to have on the road. This is a very average team, at best, and it wouldn't be surprising to see them upset, even against the horrible Saints.

And then there's Jacksonville which is a bad team playing a worse one, albeit at home.

What about Cincy against awful Cleveland? The problem is that I'm worried about this team's defense, and I think Vegas might be, too. There is reverse line movement on this one, despite the money coming in on Cincy. Plus I'm seeing some sharps on Cleveland +5. Hmmm.

None of these are wonderful picks. Denver is too public and won't get me anywhere (plus it will waste them early). The books seem to be encouraging action against Washington and Cincy. Jacksonville is just bad and could easily shit the bed, and Arizona is a mediocre squad on the road.

Right now I'm leaning towards Denver, Arizona, and Jax. Then I'll anti-sweat the Redskins & Bengals.

Opinions?

[Dan Druff]

Oh and remember how I said Pittsburgh will be a huge disappointment this year?

This one won't be a Survivor pick, but I'm definitely gonna hammer the dog moneyline on the Jets (at home, no less) this Sunday. I was doing this no matter what, but I also noticed the sharps agree with me.

FYI

[country978]

I'd like to hear what BCR has to say about the Ohio teams but the Browns are almost certainly going to be terrible. Joe Flacco is like 41 and won the starting job. There's a terrible stink hanging over the team since they gave up 3 1st rounders for a known sex offender. Of the teams you listed I like the Bengals the best of them all.

Good luck with the pool, Druff!

[Tellafriend]

On Sunday/Monday, we have the following as the biggest favs:
Cincy -5 @ Cleveland
Arizona -6.5 @ New Orleans
Denver -8/8.5 vs Tennessee
Washington -6 vs NY Giants
Jacksonville --3/3.5 vs Carolina

Right now I'm leaning towards Denver, Arizona, and Jax. Then I'll anti-sweat the Redskins & Bengals.

Opinions?

AZ

[gut]

At least 1 of those entries i would just fade the Saints every week, first 3 weeks especially ideal as AZ, SF, and SEA arent teams that you are trying to keep in your pocket.

[Dan Druff]

At least 1 of those entries i would just fade the Saints every week, first 3 weeks especially ideal as AZ, SF, and SEA arent teams that you are trying to keep in your pocket.

No doubt the Saints are horrible, but you aren't worried that AZ is so mediocre that they could let this one get away on the road?

I mean, nothing's a lock, but that's my hesitation there. I agree with you and Tellafriend, though, that AZ is probably the best selection this week. The fact that AZ is less likely to be needed again is of course a big plus. Same reason the Jax pick is enticing.

One problem with AZ is that a lot of ploppies are going to be on it, and you're not going to win by picking identical with the semi-sharp and sharp players. It's along the lines of how it's hard to win a poker tournament if you're playing a style similar to the other pros in a pro-heavy field, but even moreso.

I think ideally you go in a direction that others aren't, but also not in a retarded fashion, and hope for the biggest favs (or otherwise most likely picks) to be upsets.

Denver and AZ are likely the picks most will be making, though there will be a healthy number on Washington and Cincy as well.

[gut]

At least 1 of those entries i would just fade the Saints every week, first 3 weeks especially ideal as AZ, SF, and SEA arent teams that you are trying to keep in your pocket.

No doubt the Saints are horrible, but you aren't worried that AZ is so mediocre that they could let this one get away on the road?

I mean, nothing's a lock, but that's my hesitation there. I agree with you and Tellafriend, though, that AZ is probably the best selection this week. The fact that AZ is less likely to be needed again is of course a big plus. Same reason the Jax pick is enticing.

One problem with AZ is that a lot of ploppies are going to be on it, and you're not going to win by picking identical with the semi-sharp and sharp players. It's along the lines of how it's hard to win a poker tournament if you're playing a style similar to the other pros in a pro-heavy field, but even moreso.

I think ideally you go in a direction that others aren't, but also not in a retarded fashion, and hope for the biggest favs (or otherwise most likely picks) to be upsets.

Denver and AZ are likely the picks most will be making, though there will be a healthy number on Washington and Cincy as well.

Yeah I mean, who all took Cincy last year week 1?

Granted I am not someone who does survivor pools regularly, but I always would just fade 2-3 teams early. Think about the pocket teams, of course, but just make it through the sludge first.

Not sure if 3 this year. NO for sure, CLE probably. a third team we might not know until a few weeks in.

[Dan Druff]

One thing I'm really going to avoid doing this year is going against the sharps or the books.

That's an upset waiting to happen.

That's the reason I am not going to fade the Browns, even as "obvious" as it may be that they're going to lose. There are a number of sharps taking action on Browns +5.5, so it's a bit scary that so many good bettors think they'll lose by less than a TD.

Maybe I'll regret it, but I'm really leaning toward zero tickets on the Bengals.

gut, regarding the strategy to keep fading the bad teams... that was my strategy last year with teams like Carolina. However, note that the Panthers did end up winning 5 last year. The big problem with always fading the awful teams is that you can't really do it in weeks where they play other bad teams, and also this is a strategy too many others employ, so it won't set you apart.