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Thread: 2015 Kentucky Derby

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    Bronze John Stamos's Avatar
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    2015 Kentucky Derby

    I always like to throw down some money on the derby on some supers and what not. Anyone have any solid tri's or supers?

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    Gold gauchojake's Avatar
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    take baffert's two runners and wheel 'em with a couple of longshots in a good post position.

    I like El Kabeir and Bolo as longshots simply because of their position and jockeys. Haven't looked at any PP's so take it for what it's worth.

     
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      John Stamos: good advice, much appreciated

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    Gold abrown83's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gauchojake View Post
    take baffert's two runners and wheel 'em with a couple of longshots in a good post position.

    I like El Kabeir and Bolo as longshots simply because of their position and jockeys. Haven't looked at any PP's so take it for what it's worth.
    I am not saying American Pharoah or Dortmund won't win but history is not on their side.

    Storm Cat horses 0-43 in the derby.

    American Pharoah (the favorite) has been shipped from Cali to Arkansas to Cali to Arkansas to Kentucky all in the last six weeks and has a dosage of 4.33 (shouldn't be able to get the distance), then you watch him on film and go that horse is a freak of nature.

    I really believe the final board will contain two or more 15-1 or longer odds when all is said and done on Saturday. Now just need to figure out who those are.

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    Diamond TheXFactor's Avatar
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    NO. 18 AMERICAN PHAROAH (5-2)

    Trainer: Bob Baffert
    Jockey: Victor Espinoza
    Last Three Starts
    4-11 Arkansas Derby 1-8

    3-14 Rebel Stakes 1-6¼

    9-27 Front Runner 1-3¼

    American Pharoah’s name was submitted that way after a fan won the right to name the colt and spelled it wrong. Colt has won four of five career starts and was named the champion juvenile colt of 2014. Baffert is seeking his fourth Derby winner, while Espinoza will be seeking his third, after having won last year aboard California Chrome.


    NO. 8 DORTMUND (3-1)

    Trainer: Bob Baffert
    Jockey: Martin Garcia
    Last Three Starts
    4-4 Santa Anita Derby 1-4¼

    3-7 San Felipe Stakes 1-1¼

    2-7 Robert B. Lewis Stakes 1-head

    Morning-line second choice has won all six starts, including a runaway score in the Santa Anita Derby. Already owns a win at Churchill, taking an allowance race last year. Sired by Big Brown, who won the 2008 Derby. Baffert has three Derby wins, but none since 2002. Garcia is winless from three Derby mounts, finishing ninth last year aboard Chitu.


    NO. 13 ITSAKNOCKOUT (30-1)

    Trainer: Todd Pletcher
    Jockey: Luis Saez
    Last Three Starts
    3-28 Florida Derby 4-21

    2-21 Fountain of Youth 2-2¾p1

    1-4 Allowance 1-5¼

    Bay colt won first two starts before being placed first in controversial disqualification at Fountain of Youth Stakes after originally finishing second. Son of Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid is one of four Pletcher horses. Pletcher enters race with one Derby win from 40 starters, while this is Saez’ third Derby mount, finishing 18th last year aboard Wildcat Red. Saez won the 2013 Travers Stakes aboard Will Take Charge.


    I like these horses, American Pharoah is a big favorite, so is Dortmund.

    Itsaknockout a bit of a long shot.




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    Photoballer 4Dragons's Avatar
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    What a race! Best Derby in my lifetime. If you cannot love this race, you have no interest in horseracing.

    I like Materiality and Upstart. They put out ridiculous efforts in the Florida Derby. They got plenty of time to recover. If either of them had not been in the race and they had instead won the race by 20 by themselves, they would be favorite instead of American Pharoah. It makes no sense to penalize them for this when if anything it is a help to them. The crowd is completely missing it on those two. Problem is American Pharoah could be the second coming of Pegasus. Who knows, but he could be. Those three are the top to me. If you want to go deeper, I would take a look at Firing Line and Frosted. Want a real deep longshot? Tendencur.

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    Gold abrown83's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lurker1998 View Post
    What a race! Best Derby in my lifetime. If you cannot love this race, you have no interest in horseracing.

    I like Materiality and Upstart. They put out ridiculous efforts in the Florida Derby. They got plenty of time to recover. If either of them had not been in the race and they had instead won the race by 20 by themselves, they would be favorite instead of American Pharoah. It makes no sense to penalize them for this when if anything it is a help to them. The crowd is completely missing it on those two. Problem is American Pharoah could be the second coming of Pegasus. Who knows, but he could be. Those three are the top to me. If you want to go deeper, I would take a look at Firing Line and Frosted. Want a real deep longshot? Tendencur.
    We think along the same lines except I dropped Materiality due to his gate and kept upstart.

    My Tickets:

    Safe Bet
    Exacta - 18/4,5,8,10,12,15,19

    Somewhat Longshot
    Tri - 19/8,15,18/8,15,18

    Eating Steak and Lobster
    Tri - 15/4,5,19/4,5,8,10,12,18,19

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    My tri box

    2,3,6,8,15,18,19

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    Platinum garrett's Avatar
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    SO I never really did the 'maths' on this, but I was curious since it seems every couple of years a really huge long-shot like Mine That Bird wins as a 50-1 or a 30-1+ longshot etc... Would it be profitable to flower say $100 on a few of the 30 to 50/1 long shots with some obviously diligent research over say a 15 year sample.

    Now obviously its horses, and imo pure gamblin' unless you have like super insider info on 'certain things' happening but really wonder offhand if you had bet some of the long shots, and then leveraged with the favs, you actually could have turned a significant profit because of the rather limited history most of these horses have at Churchill Downs as well as racing against one another.

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    Photoballer 4Dragons's Avatar
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    MUBTAAHIJ FTW. No real reason other than I like a 13-1 pick.

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    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Materiality

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    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    Materiality
    I got that one too...godspeed on this one...

  13. #13
    Serial Blogger BeerAndPoker's Avatar
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    Not going to throw much money on this shit too many horses and too many times I've got burned so I'm limiting myself to $20 total sweat just to have it and no retarded ass trifecta shit from me this year.

    I've got a whopping $15 on Dortmund and $5 on Materiality.

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