I've been telling folks that Conor's biggest problem won't be Aldo.....that it would be Frankie Edgar (for this very reason). Plus, Frankie is probably the most mentally tough guy he'll ever fight; the kid from Jersey won't be fazed by some belligerent Irishman talking stupid shit.
I like Conor over Mendes because Mendes has had issues with a fighter who has greater length than him like Aldo. I think Mendes is a live dog, but will only fire if I can get +125 and above (which I doubt I will get unless irrational Euro money comes in heavy on Conor).
Conor's only loss was by submission, so you know that a grappler is probably the most likely guy to beat him. It will either be Mendes or Edgar, IMO.
Mendes is currently +105 over at Bovada.