Are we in a Global Depression and do not even know it?

[Seth]

Oil is absolutely collapsing on weak demand worldwide. Analysts predict oil settling at $30-$40 range. This will absolutely cripple Russia, Venezuela, the Middle East economies and any country dependent on oil revenues.

"What is this price decline telling us? Commodity prices don't drive economies. economies drive commodity prices," Schork said. "The United States is the only shining light out there economically. But with a rising dollar at a five-year high ... who are we going to sell our manufacturing exports to?"

"No one can tell you where this [oil] market is going," he continued. "It could have already bottomed or we could still be heading another $15. And that's the scary thing about this. This is 2009 all over again."

I know things are pretty rosy in the US right now, but if the rest of the world continues to tank, things will come to a screeching halt for all economies. I never felt right about this latest recovery. It was basically fueled by sovereign debt, not real growth. The stock market rose artificially due to 0% interest rates.

There is not going to be an easy way out of this one. Probably regional wars are imminent. It would be hard to believe Putin is going to sit back and watch his country collapse.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102272371?__s...&doc=102272371

[DirtyB]

What are your credentials in international finance?

[JUSTIFIEDhomicide]

Pretty hilarious he tries to dog B for Huffington post shit and actually starts a thread with a cnbc link

[devidee]

I thought OPEC was just trying to fuck with the frackers.

[Sloppy Joe]

Clearly this is all based on your trip to Perth being 'uneventful'



You CNBC link posting mongoloid

[simpdog]

good thing he has 200k liquid in the bank.

If he had in the markets he'd be crying right now

[abrown83]

Oil Prices historically in today's dollars.

Long-term oil prices cannot outpace global inflation unless there is a major supply shortage (which there isn't).

It's kind of like home prices in the long-term cannot outpace US inflation (you might get 20, 30, 50 year spans where it does but it will always correct itself).

[DirtyB]

Pretty hilarious he tries to dog B for Huffington post shit and actually starts a thread with a cnbc link

The really funny part is that a quick search easily shows that I have cited or referenced Huffington Post a grand total of zero times. I've mentioned that, but Bottomset still repeats it over and over.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

I thought OPEC was just trying to fuck with the frackers.

thought that at first too, but there are a decent amount of those projects already funded and moving forward...

im starting to think theyre going after the ruskies...

I mean seriously what do the Saudis give a fuck about this shit...they'd still make money hand over fist at $20/bbl...just how many platinum shitters the royal family wants...

[Seth]

Oil Prices historically in today's dollars.

Long-term oil prices cannot outpace global inflation unless there is a major supply shortage (which there isn't).

It's kind of like home prices in the long-term cannot outpace US inflation (you might get 20, 30, 50 year spans where it does but it will always correct itself).

There are two kinds of deflation. Monetary and technological. Monetary is when the money supply falls or the velocity of money changing hands slows. Technological is when a new technology like fracking increases supply. The first is frivolous in the long term, but dangerous in the short term. The second is always welcome. I don't think we should be worried at all if deflation is solely due to increasing oil supply.

The main problem in Europe seems to me to be restructuring of trade due to the sanctions placed upon Russia. Suddenly sellers and buyers are forced to choose their own markets, which choices are likely to be inferior or they would have chosen them already. Lenders base their lending on likely returns. Since returns are suddenly lower, lenders might be pulling back on lending, leading to a deceleration in the velocity of money.

[snake_in_the_ass]

good thing he has 200k liquid in the bank.

If he had in the markets he'd be crying right now

The stock market has held up surprisingly well, even though there are dozens and dozens of stocks at 52 week lows. Even a big tech monster like Google hit a 52 week low today. Barchart says there are 415 stocks at 52 week lows and maybe 30-40 at 52 week highs. Probably another 500 near 52 week lows. Few select names like MSFT, INTC, AAPL, FB, JPM, GS, COST, HD, and V have held this market up. Those stocks are heavily weighted in DOW and SP500. If you played the indexes this year, you did OK.

http://www.barchart.com/stocks/high.php

http://www.barchart.com/stocks/low.php?_dtp1=0

[PLOL]

I go in to a depression when I read your posts

[herbertstemple]

If there were a depression we would know about it. Its like saying you were getting a blow job or were in a car wreck but you didn't realize it.

[abrown83]

If there were a depression we would know about it. Its like saying you were getting a blow job or were in a car wreck but you didn't realize it.

LoL really?

Those low interest rates on homes and cars and borrowing money in general, they aren't meant to mask a depression?

History will figure this out in about 20 years, but we are either nearing the end of a 5 year Bull Market or in the middle of a 20-30 year Bear market that started on January 14th, 2000.

[Sanlmar]

If there were a depression we would know about it. Its like saying you were getting a blow job or were in a car wreck but you didn't realize it.

LoL really?

Those low interest rates on homes and cars and borrowing money in general, they aren't meant to mask a depression?

History will figure this out in about 20 years, but we are either nearing the end of a 5 year Bull Market or in the middle of a 20-30 year Bear market that started on January 14th, 2000.

What happens when you stop taking 'roids?

On a side note... Vladimir Putin's net worth was estimated at 70billion once. He grabbed stakes in oil & gas companies in Russia as they were privatized.

There gotta be a few holes in the sheetrock around the palace. I'd keep an eye on him.

[herbertstemple]

If there were a depression we would know about it. Its like saying you were getting a blow job or were in a car wreck but you didn't realize it.

LoL really?

Those low interest rates on homes and cars and borrowing money in general, they aren't meant to mask a depression?

History will figure this out in about 20 years, but we are either nearing the end of a 5 year Bull Market or in the middle of a 20-30 year Bear market that started on January 14th, 2000.

Could be forestalling a depression. Got to wonder when all this cheap money is going to bite us but so far it hasn't.

[abrown83]

LoL really?

Those low interest rates on homes and cars and borrowing money in general, they aren't meant to mask a depression?

History will figure this out in about 20 years, but we are either nearing the end of a 5 year Bull Market or in the middle of a 20-30 year Bear market that started on January 14th, 2000.

Could be forestalling a depression. Got to wonder when all this cheap money is going to bite us but so far it hasn't.

Could be, but if you look at GDP per capita minus the US Government printing money, guess what?

The chart is like a nose dive off a cliff.

Edit: Even worse if you exclude the Oil economy the last decade.

[Texter]

You know, the price of oil has nothing to do with the demand just the quantity demanded...which they teach in Econ 101. Supply is the problem in this case,I expect the economy around here to start shitting the bed.

[Sanlmar]

You know, the price of oil has nothing to do with the demand just the quantity demanded...which they teach in Econ 101. Supply is the problem in this case,I expect the economy around here to start shitting the bed.

That's why supply & demand is in an introductory Econ course. It's just a starting point.

One of my favorite aphorisms is:

Stocks don't move. They get moved.

The price of gold has little to do with supply & demand, as an example.

Did the demand for oil really drop that much since July?

Don't dismiss the role traders have in commodities markets.

Edit: I do share your pessimistic view. But bad/wrong markets always run farther than you would expect.

All bubbles and collapses do in my experience. Wait for it to prove you are right then buy the canned goods & bottled water.

[thesparten]

You are generally correct. The rubble is collapsing but America is the exception..think the 1980,s and 90,s we thrive with low oil..the only reason we're not at this time is the regulatory and tax structure under Obama and corporate republicans..trickle down economics did work under reason and Clinton. But now the money moves lateral..and only hitting the American working class very irregularly..