I am the last one to engage in "sky is falling" panic regarding the poker legalization fight, but this one actually concerns me.
First, some background:
Harry Reid, the current (but outgoing) Senate Majority Leader, is corrupt. This has been known for years. He grew up watching his dad run a whorehouse in tiny Searchlight, Nevada, and has been notoriously out for himself while pretending to serve the people. Numerous allegations of bribery have surfaced over the years, but none have stuck. A particularly interesting (and likely true) bribery allegation came from telemarketing scammer and online poker payment processor Jeremy Johnson, who said that Full Tilt had him put $1 million into a weird bank account that was being funneled to Reid. Indeed, right around the time Johnson alleges that happened, Reid suddenly threw his support behind a pro-online poker bill (which went nowhere).
So how could Reid, a guy who once went to bat for online poker and seen to be somewhat of a slave to the Nevada casino industry, turn the opposite way and support a ban of online poker?
For that, we need some more background:
Harry Reid was very unpopular in 2010. People in Nevada hated him, were tired of his corruption, and wanted him out. It was widely assumed that Reid would be defeated by any Republican Senate candidate that year, even if the GOP's candidate was very average. Unfortunately, the GOP failed to field that average candidate. Instead, the Tea Party influence served up crazy Sharon Angle as the primary's victor. Angle did and said lots of stupid things, to the point where even the biggest Reid-haters were afraid to vote for her. So Reid didn't really win in 2010. The Republicans beat themselves. I lived in Nevada at the time and was furious at the Republican Party for blowing this easy chance to finally get rid of Reid.
So back to today...
Sheldon Adelson is trying to pressure lawmakers to pass the Restore America's Wire Act (RAWA), which essentially modifies the 1961 Wire Act to include a complete ban on internet gambling. If RAWA passes, it would spell the end for both the existing state-level sites and any new ones (such as California) which are likely to come to exist in 2016 and beyond. Thanks in part to Ron Paul, who sees RAWA as an assault on states' rights (which it is), there is suddenly huge conservative opposition to the bill, and its future looked dim.
Desperate to see RAWA pass before the new Congress takes over in 2015, Adelson looks like he might be throwing up a Hail Mary. Harry Reid is going to likely face very popular Nevada governor Brian Sandoval in the 2016 Nevada Senate race. Most believe that Sandoval will absolutely crush him, as he is an experienced and popular Nevada politician, rather than a crazy Tea Party freak who would inevitably implode. It is now believed that Adelson might be offering financial support to Reid's 2016 campaign in exchange for passing RAWA. Or, at the very least, Adelson might be promising Reid to keep his money out of that race, rather than using it to bolster Sandoval as he had originally planned.
While a principled politician would tell Adelson to go jump in Lake Mead with his proposal, Reid is anything but principled. If Reid thinks this is his ticket to possibly beating Sandoval in 2016, there's a good chance he will flip-flop and take it.
In fact, Reid and Adelson have already been close for awhile now. In May, Reid said, "I know Sheldon Adelson. He's not in this [the online poker ban] for money; he's in this because he's got certain ideological views. Don't pick on [Adelson]. He's not in it to make money."
Adelson right-hand-man Andy Abboud was also very confident in RAWA's ability to pass. In a November interview, Abboud said "Adelson and Senator Reid have a very genuine friendship."
Abboud then added, "The die is cast on this [RAWA]. The cake is baked.”
Ugh.
In order to prevent a government shutdown, Congress has to pass a large spending bill before December 11. When this occurs, party leaders meet behind closed doors and basically offer concessions to one another regarding minor issues in order for everyone to leave happy. Kind of a situation where one says, "X is important to me, and Y is important to you, but I don't care much about Y and you don't care much about X. So how about you get behind X and I'll get behind Y, and let's get this done." And then the other agrees, and it's done.
Some fear that House Speaker John Boehner, who likely opposes RAWA but doesn't care too much about it, will agree to pass it if Reid concedes on some other small issue important to Boehner or his colleagues.
So just like the crippling UIGEA was passed at the last minute as part of a LOL Port Security Bill, this also might be a last minute compromise which can kill online poker.
And if that happens, we will have Harry Reid to blame.
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Originally Posted by SpewArtist
