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Thread: Daily fantasy Sports (DFS) Value player thread- (Draftkings/fanduel etc)

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    Platinum garrett's Avatar
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    Daily fantasy Sports (DFS) Value player thread- (Draftkings/fanduel etc)

    All Sports- NBA/NFL/CBB/NHL/PGA etc

    Simple thread for PFA to talk about value plays for the days Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) games.


    I was hesitant to start this thread with so many lurkers of this forum, and the fact the entire game is mostly based off plugging the correct value plays. What changed my mind was the fact, people are mostly privately sharing this info amongst themselves anyway like the old poker days, in skype groups, forums friends etc.

    Very important when playing DFS is not developing a cognitive bias of sorts and just always selecting the "big shiny nice new" cars perse. These players don't win you contests, especially not big fields. Daily fantasy sports big fields are actually won by selecting the relatively cheap, or actually cheap player who grossly outperforms. Some sports this is easier to find than in others. NBA for example this is a constant evolution, as players are often getting hurt, or rotations being switched, so a guy who got few minutes (run) now will get many, for a very low price etc. When a player like this for the lowest price point, grossly outperforms at a rate of a player 5x or so his price, is when you can really outpace and win BIG fields, with thousands of entries.

    Put simple, without these correct "value" plugs, you will never outright win and outpace a field of say 57,000 combinatorials in NFL. So in order to win you need to see, and correctly plug the right value plays.


    DFS pricing is fluid and constantly changing/evolving, tracking this value is critical to being competitive, especially against the better players who ARE in the "know" and mostly populate the smaller field contests at all levels. So if you cant beat them don't bother buying in or playing, because you will get run over in time, as they will find that value you missed, often.

     
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      RichardBrodiesCombover.: Shut up, garrett
      
      SrslySirius: Congrats on finally starting a thread that doesn't suck

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    Platinum garrett's Avatar
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    NFL example last Sunday was Jonas Gray NE.

    Jonas Gray (3300)- 47.1 pts
    Matt Forte (10100)- 26.5


    So last Sunday you would have gotten almost double the points for Gray at 1/3 the price of the RB priced as "the best", therefore increasing your lineups production relative to price significantly. Gray was also only owned ~<1% in most all big fields, so you gained and had an edge on 99% of the field for every point Gray got. There is no better example than this of a valve plug, and what you need to outpace and win in a field of over 57,000 combinations.


    Plain and simple, you have got to have that player or two who people do NOT see and puts up huge numbers. The Jonas Gray of sorts. This can not be stressed enough how important this is in the game of DFS. If you can't find value, just log off and save your money!

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    Diamond chinamaniac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by garrett View Post
    NFL example last Sunday was Jonas Gray NE.

    Jonas Gray (3300)- 47.1 pts
    Matt Forte (10100)- 26.5


    So last Sunday you would have gotten almost double the points for Gray at 1/3 the price of the RB priced as "the best", therefore increasing your lineups production relative to price significantly. Gray was also only owned ~<1% in most all big fields, so you gained and had an edge on 99% of the field for every point Gray got. There is no better example than this of a valve plug, and what you need to outpace and win in a field of over 57,000 combinations.


    Plain and simple, you have got to have that player or two who people do NOT see and puts up huge numbers. The Jonas Gray of sorts. This can not be stressed enough how important this is in the game of DFS. If you can't find value, just log off and save your money!
    Ya that can be important but that is also taking a chance on an unknown. Most of the winning lineups I saw when I was following earlier in the year had good consistent players who had fair or below market salary. Also if you do happen to land a Jonas Gray type for the week you still have to nail all of the other guys. Obv it makes it easier with cheaper salary dudes

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    Platinum garrett's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by garrett View Post
    NFL example last Sunday was Jonas Gray NE.

    Jonas Gray (3300)- 47.1 pts
    Matt Forte (10100)- 26.5


    So last Sunday you would have gotten almost double the points for Gray at 1/3 the price of the RB priced as "the best", therefore increasing your lineups production relative to price significantly. Gray was also only owned ~<1% in most all big fields, so you gained and had an edge on 99% of the field for every point Gray got. There is no better example than this of a valve plug, and what you need to outpace and win in a field of over 57,000 combinations.


    Plain and simple, you have got to have that player or two who people do NOT see and puts up huge numbers. The Jonas Gray of sorts. This can not be stressed enough how important this is in the game of DFS. If you can't find value, just log off and save your money!
    Ya that can be important but that is also taking a chance on an unknown. Most of the winning lineups I saw when I was following earlier in the year had good consistent players who had fair or below market salary. Also if you do happen to land a Jonas Gray type for the week you still have to nail all of the other guys. Obv it makes it easier with cheaper salary dudes

    Its a function of price/production, strategies vary depending on the field size/game type etc.


    Just like poker, you don't want to or need to take such huge risk in a 10 player 50/50 field. There is no need to "stretch the boundaries" so wide, when just trying to score higher than 9 other combos,or 40 other combos, but to outpace and outright win over a field of 57k combos, yes your strategy needs to differ. To just need to finish in the top 50% of a 50/50 you want to take a more "central tendency" approach, with less risk than you would trying to win a big field top heavy contest.

    You will also outright win the 50/50s with a boundary stretched lineup, although it is unnecessary to take such risks, when the reward is only double your bi, and a field of 9 other combos, or say 50 you have to outpace. So right and wrong you are.

    My initial post was examples of how to win the BIG money, big fields, which most people are interested in, especially on an NFL Sunday. Strategy does differ for different types of structures of course. I was not trying to get too crazy in depth on the entire nuisances/techniques of plugging optimal DFS lineups, and was trying to more or less make a thread for solid value plays relative to price for people to be able to mull through and over.

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    Mad Neg Repper 1marley1's Avatar
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    I guarantee you the dimwits from Boston that just won the $milliion gave all this shit little/no thought. You just gotta get real lucky to beat a field of 96,000.

     
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      garrett: precisely, reality is to outpace a 57k player field you do need LOTS of luck. Skill/luck
      
      RegGaymer: ead

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    Mad Neg Repper 1marley1's Avatar
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    [QUOTE=garrett;323342]
    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
    I was not trying to get too crazy in depth on the entire nuisances/techniques of plugging optimal DFS lineups, and was trying to more or less make a thread for solid value plays relative to price for people to be able to mull through and over.

    So...

    Who's the Jonas Gray solid value play this week?

     
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      RegGaymer: ead

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    Platinum garrett's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by garrett View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
    Ya that can be important but that is also taking a chance on an unknown. Most of the winning lineups I saw when I was following earlier in the year had good consistent players who had fair or below market salary. Also if you do happen to land a Jonas Gray type for the week you still have to nail all of the other guys. Obv it makes it easier with cheaper salary dudes

    Its a function of price/production, strategies vary depending on the field size/game type etc.


    Just like poker, you don't want to or need to take such huge risk in a 10 player 50/50 field. There is no need to "stretch the boundaries" so wide, when just trying to score higher than 9 other combos,or 40 other combos, but to outpace and outright win over a field of 57k combos, yes your strategy needs to differ. To just need to finish in the top 50% of a 50/50 you want to take a more "central tendency" approach, with less risk than you would trying to win a big field top heavy contest.

    You will also outright win the 50/50s with a boundary stretched lineup, although it is unnecessary to take such risks, when the reward is only double your bi, and a field of 9 other combos, or say 50 you have to outpace. So right and wrong you are.

    My initial post was examples of how to win the BIG money, big fields, which most people are interested in, especially on an NFL Sunday. Strategy does differ for different types of structures of course. I was not trying to get too crazy in depth on the entire nuisances/techniques of plugging optimal DFS lineups, and was trying to more or less make a thread for solid value plays relative to price for people to be able to mull through and over.
    [QUOTE=1marley1;323351]
    Quote Originally Posted by garrett View Post


    So...

    Who's the Jonas Gray solid value play this week?
    I think value today is at 2 positions RB/QB. Yea we all know Andrew Luck should put up 30 pts vs JAX, but hes 9700 and today their is QBs at 5600-6300 who should put up relatively close #s, for 1/3 the price. And RBs their is a couple intriguing plays that are back healthy and should get a lot of work.

    Draftkings

    RBs

    Tre Mason (4200)
    Rashad Jennings (5100)
    Ryan Matthews (4600)

    QB

    Matt Ryan (6300)
    Eli Manning (5800)
    Kyle Orton (5600)

    WR

    Sammy watkins (5600)
    Brandon Lafell (5700)
    Odell Beckham Jr. (6100)

    These are some on Draftkings that are priced right,and have good matchups which could see them putting up some big numbers. Also and this is a little more in depth strat, but you want to also sometimes combine these players QB/WR. So for example given their prices and matchups, I actually like these and some others..

    Orton/Watkins
    Eli Manning/Beckham jr.

    When they connect and have big games, with relatively low owned %s, which these all should have, you can be locking in the beginning of that, magic recipe.

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    PFA Boxing Guru JMM's Avatar
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    I've been break even in NFL this year. Well below in College Football. I just can't seem to identify the right WR matchups in CFB. I've had both RB's that rushed for over 400 yards the past two weeks, and managed to still not cash in either of the gpp's that I had them in, lol (Perine had 78 points on DraftKings).

    Doing decent in NBA head to head and 50/50's. Won my first gpp in college basketball the other night (sick brag). Cashed in a few others. The college basketball gpp's never fill up, and DK prices are pretty soft.

    I'm gonna keep playing the Millionaire Maker, because it's a million fucking dollars. And I wanna win a million fucking dollars. But that's it for NFL.

    I have Trent Richardson and Lesean McCoy at RB this week. Might put Alfred Blue in at flex if Foster is out. If Foster plays I will probably use Denard Robinson.

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    PFA Boxing Guru JMM's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by garrett View Post

    These are some on Draftkings that are priced right,and have good matchups which could see them putting up some big numbers. Also and this is a little more in depth strat, but you want to also sometimes combine these players QB/WR. So for example given their prices and matchups, I actually like these and some others..

    Orton/Watkins
    Eli Manning/Beckham jr.

    When they connect and have big games, with relatively low owned %s, which these all should have, you can be locking in the beginning of that, magic recipe.
    I've noticed that you almost never see a big GPP winner that doesn't have the QB/WR stack. A lot of times even QB/WR/TE or QB with 2 WR's (Typically Broncos or Colts).

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    Platinum garrett's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMM View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by garrett View Post

    These are some on Draftkings that are priced right,and have good matchups which could see them putting up some big numbers. Also and this is a little more in depth strat, but you want to also sometimes combine these players QB/WR. So for example given their prices and matchups, I actually like these and some others..

    Orton/Watkins
    Eli Manning/Beckham jr.

    When they connect and have big games, with relatively low owned %s, which these all should have, you can be locking in the beginning of that, magic recipe.
    I've noticed that you almost never see a big GPP winner that doesn't have the QB/WR stack. A lot of times even QB/WR/TE or QB with 2 WR's (Typically Broncos or Colts).
    Definitely, and it is not by coincidence as its optimal strat. They have mutually beneficial relationships, so say if Sammy Watkins goes HAM, and puts up like 2 or 3 TDs 150+ yards, well that also means his QB also had a 2/3 TD day+ yards.....


    Very important to understand.

     
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      Sloppy Joe: Shut up garrett, get a job

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    PFA Boxing Guru JMM's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by garrett View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JMM View Post

    I've noticed that you almost never see a big GPP winner that doesn't have the QB/WR stack. A lot of times even QB/WR/TE or QB with 2 WR's (Typically Broncos or Colts).
    Definitely, and it is not by coincidence as its optimal strat. They have mutually beneficial relationships, so say if Sammy Watkins goes HAM, and puts up like 2 or 3 TDs 150+ yards, well that also means his QB also had a 2/3 TD day+ yards.....


    Very important to understand.
    Right. The idea being that if you think that your QB is throwing 3 or 4 TD's, there's a good chance that his top WR catches a couple of them. I'm using Matt Ryan and Roddy White this week. Went with White instead of Julio Jones mainly because of Haden. And it seems like Ryan looks to White in the redzone more often.

    I've also noticed that these guys that are winning week after week are paying up at TE. A lot of times even putting another TE in the flex position. Pretty contrarian move.

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    Platinum garrett's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMM View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by garrett View Post

    Definitely, and it is not by coincidence as its optimal strat. They have mutually beneficial relationships, so say if Sammy Watkins goes HAM, and puts up like 2 or 3 TDs 150+ yards, well that also means his QB also had a 2/3 TD day+ yards.....


    Very important to understand.
    Right. The idea being that if you think that your QB is throwing 3 or 4 TD's, there's a good chance that his top WR catches a couple of them. I'm using Matt Ryan and Roddy White this week. Went with White instead of Julio Jones mainly because of Haden. And it seems like Ryan looks to White in the redzone more often.

    I've also noticed that these guys that are winning week after week are paying up at TE. A lot of times even putting another TE in the flex position. Pretty contrarian move.
    I like the Ryan/White combo too. The only downside is I heard an awful lot of talk about people being high on ATL this week, and wonder if thats gonna give a tick up in owned % to this combo, but white as opposed to Jones for less, is smart. He should do well barring injury.

    The idea that people are using multiple TE strat and its working idea, is actually flawed. Its all just dependent on player pricing. A couple weeks ago BOTh Julius Thomas/Jimmy Graham bc of injury were stupid low priced both were like ~5k so in that situation when pricing works itself down like such and two of the leagues most targeted TEs and also very integral parts of their teams offense, you should be plugging both.

    Sometimes the pricing GIVES you certain players, and you should just take them I have learned, one of my leaks is fading this idea at times in certain structures bc I think the contrarian play while saving some more money makes more sense, which is dumb and has caused me to lose weekends, especially when them 2 TEs go off, like Graham and Thomas usually do and for such a low price.

    Sometimes you have to just take what the pricing is giving you and not what you want. Again because its price/production (expected production).

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    Platinum garrett's Avatar
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    One more thought on the 2 TE idea.


    It is actually not a bad idea because there's always TEs for ~3000 who can outperform. It is a very polarized/risky strat. You're essentially trying to get a lot of value out of a 3k guy, and trying to find it in a TE like Vernon Davis today for example, or a Heath Miller. Reality is most times 10 points is a good game for them, but it can happen where they score 2 TDs and have great 25 point games, which in that case would work out.

    Its risky, but their is good ~3k TE value lots of weekends, its a matter of will they put up and is their better options for ~3k elsewhere. Sometimes finding that 3k value which outperforms is had at TE. Lots of TEs are commonly falling around 3k. If you're running multiple lineups its a good idea, but a small bankroll type plugging only a lineup or two, this is a very risky idea.

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    PFA Boxing Guru JMM's Avatar
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    LOL. 2 fucking weekends in a row, DraftKings goes down on Sunday. This time, right before kickoff.

    Last week they refunded all of the 1:00pm games that you didn't cash in, and cancelled 4pm games. It'll be interesting to see how they handle it this week.

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    Platinum garrett's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMM View Post
    LOL. 2 fucking weekends in a row, DraftKings goes down on Sunday. This time, right before kickoff.

    Last week they refunded all of the 1:00pm games that you didn't cash in, and cancelled 4pm games. It'll be interesting to see how they handle it this week.

    Sooo much to say about this trying to bite my tongue. How suspect this is for the size and amounts of money this companies dealing with now.

    And in contrast fanduel systems seem to run much more competently. Not seeing lineups and owned % till games are almost a quarter over, is beyond shady...


    1pm SHARP lineups and owned % should be available. That is everything, scares me how lackadaisical they go about that.

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    PFA Boxing Guru JMM's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by garrett View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JMM View Post
    LOL. 2 fucking weekends in a row, DraftKings goes down on Sunday. This time, right before kickoff.

    Last week they refunded all of the 1:00pm games that you didn't cash in, and cancelled 4pm games. It'll be interesting to see how they handle it this week.

    Sooo much to say about this trying to bite my tongue. How suspect this is for the size and amounts of money this companies dealing with now.

    And in contrast fanduel systems seem to run much more competently. Not seeing lineups and owned % till games are almost a quarter over, is beyond shady...


    1pm SHARP lineups and owned % should be available. That is everything, scares me how lackadaisical they go about that.
    If you have any DK lineups that are not doing well, you can email them (as long as it's before 3:00 est) and they will cancel the lineup and refund your money.

    I like DK because it's full point PPR. But this is getting old.

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    I've found that it's almost never worth it to take the high priced QBs because to pay off they need to have an incredible game. For example, If you took Luck today you needed 40 points for him to be worth the price tag. For a QB to get 40 points we are talking 400 yard and 5 TDs. Just doesn't happen that often. I would much rather take a cheap QB (hope to get 20-25) and spend big on receivers. The top receivers are usually around 8.5M which is much more manageable. In this case, we are talking 9 catches for 120 yards and 2 TDs which is much more likely.

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    Platinum garrett's Avatar
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    Happy Thanksgiving PFA!

    One of the best NFL football days of the year, and a few really nice DFS contests to try and win some big money while gobbling down that tukey. 3 game slate means the difference between outright winning and the money bubble is often only a couple of players difference, so with only 3 games, be smart and select your team wisely. Be creative and smart, while trying to bag a nice fantasy football score to go with that Thanksgiving dinner this year.


    This Thanksgiving's best contests are:

    Draftkings $20 Wishbone Classic with 100k up top.
    fanduels $25 Gravy Bomb with 120k up top.

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    Platinum garrett's Avatar
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    Reggie Bush OUT. Obviously this puts the value game at RB.

    Jason La Canfora @JasonLaCanfora · 38m 38 minutes ago
    Reggie Bush is out for today's game. Ankle still not responding well enough. Lions hopeful Bush can play Week 14

    https://twitter.com/jasonlacanfora

    Joique Bell/Theo Riddick are nice upside low price RBs today. Bell would be a significantly better plug today if DET can get a nice lead on Chi, which is not out of the realm of probability. Theo Riddick is a pass catching change of pace RB with Bell as the more every down workhorse, especially with a lead.

    Frank Gore/Carlos Hyde the other two low price nice upside RBs who are all unique enough and with likely low owned %'s with a good game can put you up top. Choose wisely...

    gl
    Last edited by garrett; 11-27-2014 at 07:47 AM.

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    I just cost myself $40,000 with a late swap putting in marshawn lynch and dez bryant for mccoy and maclin.... I kinda want to die right now... though i should be happy winning the $500

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