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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #19801
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Is that team 1st inning GBCP? TB has been a monster yes

    I did take the no with juice today
    yeah...sorry cut off the header...

    https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/sta...ate=2019-05-18

  2. #19802
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Is that team 1st inning GBCP? TB has been a monster yes

    I did take the no with juice today
    yeah...sorry cut off the header...

    https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/sta...ate=2019-05-18
    1 inning is a pitcher-centric deal. I don’t find that ranking useful. TB did have the crazy run but their pitching is the nuts and consider their spot starter approach. I caught some.

    Grinding 1P numbers by pitcher blows. The data has gotten larger and more stable. I lost a bit early on. I’ve stuck with it

    Cash the TB No
    Tablet - MLB Props - Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees - Score In 1st Inning - No -145

    You’ve been such a mensch GBCP how ‘bout this:
    Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 954 Los Angeles Dodgers/Cincinnati Reds under 5 -105 for 1st 5 Innings W

    Mahle/Buehler. You know Buehler. Look at Mahle. Nice price for a 1st 5
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-18-2019 at 11:07 PM.

  3. #19803
    Got your note GBCP. Show me two pitchers ERA 0.00 in 1P and I’m your bitch. I exaggerate only a little.

    I will find someone else to do the work.

    I will share more.

  4. #19804
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Got your note GBCP. Show me two pitchers ERA 0.00 in 1P and I’m your bitch. I exaggerate only a little.

    I will find someone else to do the work.

    I will share more.
    cool thanks man...didn't know if you would focus on the pitcher or the top 3-4 guys in a lineup...pitching obv makes the most sense, but didn't know if you took anything else into account...

    have my mlb.com stat page saved...will start looking at it going forward

    EDIT: for those who want to follow along at home...

    http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.js...t=i01&team_id=
    Last edited by GambleBotsChafedPenis; 05-18-2019 at 11:14 AM.

  5. #19805
    Nice to have some give and take here. Rare lately.

    I was on Simpdog’s Show recently and shared this with the audience.

    Put this bad boy on your desktop

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    https://www.digitalliquid.com/baseballweather/

    It’s not predictive. It simply shows visually the present moment. It’s visual and I’m lazy.

    Marry that with NOAA using the ballpark’s zip code to forecast

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    https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...Type=graphical

    This feeble contribution entitles me to a brag. Lock it up

    MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 966 TAMPA BAY RAYS/NEW YORK YANKEES UNDER 4 -124 FOR 1ST 5 INNINGS
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-18-2019 at 11:48 AM.

  6. #19806
    neat little tool...you're looking at that info for "longer" bets like 5 and 9 inning O/Us, correct?

  7. #19807
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    neat little tool...you're looking at that info for "longer" bets like 5 and 9 inning O/Us, correct?
    Oh yeah. Tough to keep me on topic.

    The quintessential example is Wrigley totals. Fenway & other little bandboxes. Fly ball contact type pitcher exposure vs swing and miss guys.

    It’s a must. West coast ballparks are a joke so I never look.

    You remind me that we need to look at betting 2nd half totals. Bullpens have never been worse. I imagine this is languishing out there.

    I have never heard anybody discuss this angle.

  8. #19808
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    On the anti-Zack-Godley train.

    Had him on my fantasy team. He was a surprisingly good free agent pickup one year. Then he sucked. This year he shouldn't even be in MLB anymore. He's been moved to the bullpen and sucks there too. Then they spot start him, and guess what, he sucks.

    7.65 ERA/1.726 WHIP over 37 2/3 innings!

    He's also consistently bad. In 5 of his past 7 appearances, he's given up more runs than innings pitched.

    San Francisco (Bumgarner) -109 at Arizona (Godley)

    That's all I got today.

  9. #19809
    had a look at the first innings tomorrow:

    Gibson (MIN) 8IP 1.13ERA
    Kikuchi (SEA) 10IP 3.60ERA

    don't know if that makes the cut or not...

    couple of other games where there are 0.00ERA pitchers but they're being opposed by guys who are getting their tits lit up...

  10. #19810
    NBA first quarter GSW/Portland over 56.5

    Like over for game but will bet live at some point.


    NHL tomorrow taking SJ/STL over 5.5

  11. #19811
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    22 hr head start

    TABLET - BASEBALL - MLB - 978 MINNESOTA TWINS/SEATTLE MARINERS OVER 9 -115 FOR GAME W

    TABLET - BASEBALL - MLB - 977 MINNESOTA TWINS -133 FOR GAME W

    Twins kid Berrios vs Mariner old man LeBlanc

    Don’t have time now but in a nutshell

    Berrios got touched last time out. He still sports a 1.0 WHIP. Kid is 24 but has been the nuts so far. Look him up

    Mel LeBlanc is coming back from an oblique strain tomorrow. Rust on a crap pitcher - swell. Shit bullpen to take over for him.

    Twins kicking ass right now against the same Mariners who are a hot mess. The line will get bet up after the last pitch or people get their touts picks tomorrow morning.

    Don’t waste your phone on getting an Uber. Get this down now.
    10-0 Twins in the 3rd.

    I think we can safely lock these bets up

    Twins are a regular and still largely undervalued - however, I have never seen them “manufacture” a run. It’s all bombs. Small quibble but will haunt them later.

    Mel Blanc was the voice behind Bugs Bunny, Daffy Duck, Yosemite Sam etc.

  12. #19812
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    had a look at the first innings tomorrow:

    Gibson (MIN) 8IP 1.13ERA
    Kikuchi (SEA) 10IP 3.60ERA

    don't know if that makes the cut or not...

    couple of other games where there are 0.00ERA pitchers but they're being opposed by guys who are getting their tits lit up...

    Y/N & last 3
    Gibson 2-6 ... 1-2
    Kikuchi 3-7 ... 0-3

    We have an edge with no but I’m gonna pass. Twins are an offensive juggernaut.

    I don’t see anything super compelling for Sunday.

    If you got the sickness...
    Rays Morton 2.00ERA 0.89Whip 2-7 & 1-2
    Yank Chad Green 9.2IP 13.97ERA 2.28Whip

    Yankees gonna turn the tables on Rays with the spot starter. I really don’t understand the Green decision. Fresh from AAA tune up. Was inserted into game Friday and was a gas can.
    It is the Rays on the road with 55% per your ranking.
    Be curious what the 1P juice would be. No line now. Weird. It’s so fucked up and nonsensical that it’s almost irresistible. I need to be strong. Monday is GA


    Obv 1st inning is a super small sample by its nature and prone to variance. Playing small 1P edges and losing just tilts me out. Long summer and if we don’t go blind with the numbers we’ll find something. Today was nice.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-19-2019 at 12:07 AM.

  13. #19813
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Godley fade hits again.

    Seriously, boys, keep hitting this one until AZ finally wises up and takes him out of the rotation permanently.

  14. #19814
    aight san, didn't pull on any of the 1st innings today...

    can I interest you in minor (TEX) v leake (SEA)...looking at DK, have it at +120...makes me think that this might not be as good as I originally thought...

    both have the same first inning stats...2 earned in 9 first innings...game O/U is fucking 11...jesus...

    don't have a line on ARZ/NYM...corbin has only allowed one run in 9 appearances, but Gagnon got slammed for 2 in his only first inning this year...

    nothing else is really jumping out off the page...

  15. #19815
    Gimme a quote on NO

    AZ Weaver 0.70 0-3 & 1-9
    SD Paddack 0.63 0-3 & 1-7

  16. #19816
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Gimme a quote on NO

    AZ Weaver 0.70 0-3 & 1-9
    SD Paddack 0.63 0-3 & 1-7
    offer -115

  17. #19817
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Gimme a quote on NO

    AZ Weaver 0.70 0-3 & 1-9
    SD Paddack 0.63 0-3 & 1-7
    offer -115
    I don’t get props for several hours.

    Put me down for a couple of dimes TIA

    Konnichiwa & Gibson was NO winner FTR.

    Maybe you are like those pigs that root out truffles. Hmmm.

    Minor 1.44 1-2 2-7
    Leake 0.89 1-3 1-8
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-19-2019 at 09:05 PM.

  18. #19818
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post

    offer -115
    I don’t get props for several hours.

    Put me down for a couple of dimes TIA

    Konnichiwa & Gibson was NO winner FTR.

    Maybe you are like those pigs that root out truffles. Hmmm.

    Minor 1.44 1-2 2-7
    Leake 0.89 1-3 1-8
    honestly have no clue what is going on yet...saw the MIN/SEA thing...

    that line on minor/leake is making me feel like such a fucktard for putting money on NO...especially with that bloated O/U...

    I see why you like weaver...3 runs in his first start and lights out since...im in...owe you a bourbon if it hits...

  19. #19819
    10 games of 1P data should be respectable and yet Texas & Seattle looks like an easy over even at 10.5

    Not for me. Texas ML in a parlay or something maybe. Seattle is such a mess.

    What was the line on the NO? You may dance thru raindrops.

    NJ is better than even off shore. You look at PointsBet? They have a promotion for free $1k bet and they pay NBA winner at 3rd period. The NJ promotions are going to be the stuff of legend

    I been laying off the NBA pachinko. I have an old Bucks future and that satisfies me. However, Bucks Warriors is a clash of 3rd Periods - marry that with PoinstBet and we might have something to talk about. For real.

    NJ will crush Vegas handle really soon. Circa (Vegas) is doing no juice on baseball when they open this summer. Bet a small used car and it’s a free trip. I want to see that book in person. Going to be incredible.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-19-2019 at 09:44 PM.

  20. #19820
    Minor 1.44 1-2 2-7
    Leake 0.89 0-3 1-8

    Whip
    last 3
    All 1P’s

    Typos can be fatal. Apologies

    This will be really interesting to follow.


    Last one tonight
    Look at 1pm game. Sawks Jays. Insufficient 1P data.

    Price off DL - tendinitis elbow. Was never a 1P star. The fag dodged the Astros cause he’s soft.

    E Jackson. Literally the most travelled man in baseball. The A’s sold him for travel miles and Chipotle gift certificate. The A’s didn’t get any player compensation. His only outing he started off poor 1st innning.

    For an Olive Garden size bet at the right price I’m gonna prolly do it. E Jackson vs Sawks. This is like Batting practice.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-19-2019 at 10:15 PM.

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