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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #121
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    Haralabob just being interviewed live on Lebatard radio show. He never really will give picks, but they stayed on him and he finally said he's betting Golden State tonight at home against Clippers.

    GS -5 atm
    He will be happy to see he can get 4.5 at some shops.

    That said ill tail because the NCFF card sucks.

  2. #122
    Yeah, I didn't bet it, just checked bovada app. I don't bet much on basketball. Just thought I'd mention it in case anyone is loading up on Clips it might give you pause.
    Last edited by BCR; 11-05-2014 at 02:39 PM.

  3. #123
    NIU -3
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  4. #124
    Memphis +1.5 @ Suns.

  5. #125
    Diamond Hockey Guy's Avatar
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    Did a 5 game parlay on Proline here in Canada. I'm drawing dead since I didn't realize anything within 5pts is considered a tie. lol, what a fucking joke.

    I got Heat, Magic, Raps, Nets & Warriors. They all have to win by at least 6.

    $5 to win $308.50.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hockey Guy
    I'd say good luck in the freeroll but I'm pretty sure you'll go on a bender to self-sabotage yourself & miss it completely or use it as the excuse of why you didn't cash.

  6. #126
    Missed tip on one game, system voided
    Last edited by BCR; 11-05-2014 at 04:43 PM.

  7. #127
    Diamond chinamaniac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JUSTIFIEDhomicide View Post
    NIU -3
    Hopefully they cover but at the same time I hope Jahwan Edwards runs all over these guys

  8. #128
    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JUSTIFIEDhomicide View Post
    NIU -3
    Hopefully they cover but at the same time I hope Jahwan Edwards runs all over these guys
    I have not seen you post about Fan Duel since first week of season.. Is it beatabe? Or is variance and juice make it a luckfest to profit?

  9. #129
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Was going to fire on Cleveland -5.5 at Utah, and I see it has moved to -6 on Bovada (and -5.5/-115 elsewhere), so fuck it. Now I hope it loses.

  10. #130
    Diamond Hockey Guy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hockey Guy View Post
    Did a 5 game parlay on Proline here in Canada. I'm drawing dead since I didn't realize anything within 5pts is considered a tie. lol, what a fucking joke.

    I got Heat, Magic, Raps, Nets & Warriors. They all have to win by at least 6.

    $5 to win $308.50.
    I should just fade myself. Got them all wrong so far.

     
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      BHS: TY
    (_) ..
    ∫\ \___( _)
    _∫∫ _∫∫ɯ \ \

    Quote Originally Posted by Hockey Guy
    I'd say good luck in the freeroll but I'm pretty sure you'll go on a bender to self-sabotage yourself & miss it completely or use it as the excuse of why you didn't cash.

  11. #131
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Memphis +1.5 @ Suns.

    Shippp

     
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      BHS: TY - edit

  12. #132
    Diamond chinamaniac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fademypicks View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
    Hopefully they cover but at the same time I hope Jahwan Edwards runs all over these guys
    I have not seen you post about Fan Duel since first week of season.. Is it beatabe? Or is variance and juice make it a luckfest to profit?
    ya it is beatable if you do your homework. I stopped playing a few weeks ago because there is a good amount of work involved and I am focusing on poker still. Guys are making 100s of thousands dollars in these. HU matches and 50 50s seem to be where a lot of the best money is

  13. #133
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Cavs lost again.

    Might be worth fading this team for awhile, especially on the road.

    Glad I didn't bet on tonight's game.

    Part of what scared me was the fact that they were in Utah, and the Jazz have always been tough at home, even when their team is crappy. This is partially because of the altitude in Salt Lake, and partially because of the notoriously loud home crowd. Was already hesitating about taking a struggling Cavs team against home Utah, but the line change sealed it for me.

  14. #134
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    On the flip side, the Jazz haven't done well against the spread on the road. The Jazz in general have always had road problems, but of course the spread adjust for that.

    Still, the Jazz are 51-63 ATS in the prior 3 seasons on the road. Had you just blindly fired on every Jazz road game since the 2011-2012 season at -110 against the Jazz (spread, not ML), you would have come away with a 5.5% ROI, even taking into account the 10% house juice. I see they also went 19-20 on the road ATS in 2010-2011, and 17-24 ATS on the road in 2008-2009. For whatever reason I can't find ATS data for them for 2009-2010. (Anyone have a good site for this?)

    Here is a good ATS site but it only goes back to 2011-2012: http://www.predictionmachine.com/201...eams-ATS-Total

    The reason I mention this is because I can't find a recent season where the Jazz have a winning record on the road ATS, and unlike other teams, where year-to-year doesn't matter much, the Jazz have the altitude factor (4300 feet), which can artificially inflate their home numbers and therefore make them worse ATS on the road.

     
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      ShadyJ: Nice site

  15. #135
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    Haralabob just being interviewed live on Lebatard radio show. He never really will give picks, but they stayed on him and he finally said he's betting Golden State tonight at home against Clippers.

    GS -5 atm
    He will be happy to see he can get 4.5 at some shops.

    That said ill tail because the NCFF card sucks.
    Turns out this guy knows his stuff. Or he's a Luckbox. Either way good posting.

  16. #136
    HOU/SA o200

  17. #137
    Druff talking about sports betting from his real account is weirding me out.

     
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      lol wow: weirdly correct

  18. #138
    Does anyone have an idea how close these online books pay on parlays in relation to the true odds...

  19. #139
    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JUSTIFIEDhomicide View Post
    NIU -3
    Hopefully they cover but at the same time I hope Jahwan Edwards runs all over these guys

    booom

    15-9 nfl 1-0 ncaa itt

    cinci -7 O46
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  20. #140
    Browns +7 small bet just for sweat

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