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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #5881
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler View Post
    Poll....with records/what we know now after about 20% of season, how confident are you that the World Series Champion will come from one of these teams...

    Cubs
    Mets
    Orioles
    Nats
    CWS
    Mariners
    Red Sox

    I have a significant futures bet at very long odds on one of them I placed before season, and I might throw 500 down on each of the others now to get me to worst case scenario of losing 500 if Cubs win, but significant upside on ALL the others if they win (ranging from +2000 to +7000) or so. My original team pulls it out it is +15,000. Or I could lose it all if some random team happens to turn it on and win, but it seems this year there are a handful of teams that really look to be favorites over the rest. I don't see that team outside of this group really, but it is kinda sorta early.
    Long way to go with injuries and stuff. But we have a pretty good idea what each team is about.

    Da Cubs. Even if a Cubs pitcher goes down, or anyone else for that matter, Theo Epstein has the money, the bullets and the stones to add pieces. There are always regular season heros in slap nut divisions. Them Cubs are built for tournament play too.

    this is a very good list given what we know now.

    Why not share the mystery team and all the particulars. Why do you feel you need to hedge now? You brought this up. So give it up.

    Of course, GL
    Wasn't really trying to hide what I had, I have Orioles at like 45-1, put down about 350 before season.

    If it wasn't for the fucking Cubs this would be hella easier and I could probably wait. A nice losing streak would be nice to give me a little better odds on them, but they are just destroying everyone and don't see that happening. But then again how much better can their odds get? They are 5-1 now. I'm just spitballing here though, Cards a few years ago won 86 I think and took championship.

    I was originally going to wait til the playoffs and then just pound every other team but my limits might hurt me in tbat scenario. Max future is $500. But either way Cubs are the damn problem.

  2. #5882
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post

    Looking at Sat - 16 games
    Hard to turn my attention from the money truck
    Over 9.5 gonna watch line
    Astros (McChugh) just a very young kid with ugly numbers
    Red Sox (Buccholz) ugly career with spotty good starts
    Been running so pure. I have a bad intuition. Don't know why. You don't find spots like this too often. Just feeling reversion to the mean with the offense and Buccholz has looked better than the wretched gutless awfulness that is his career. He has good stuff but he is always afraid. Vasquez is the sort of catcher to kick his ass.

    That kid Vasquez has a cannon for an arm BTW.

    05/14/2016 - ONLINE at 06:18 AM
    [Ticket #: 260295877] STRAIGHT BET
    05/14/2016 @ 10:05 AM
    MLB
    [967] TOTAL o9-120 (HOU ASTROS vrs BOS RED SOX)
    ( C MCHUGH -R / C BUCHHOLZ -R ) RISKING 120.00 TO WIN 100.00

    I am bummin I see no run line or total on Cubs (Arrietta) v Pitt (Locke). Why is that Daly?

    GL Kid
    Cubs opened at -250 and it shot up to -300.

    Feeling a chalk parlay

    (1) Pitt Penguins -200
    (2) Toronto Raptors ML (-205)
    (3) Golden State Warriors ML (-370)
    (4) Chicago Cubs -1 (-135)
    (5) Cleveland Indians ML (-200)
    (6) Washington Nationals GM #1 -1 (-110)

    100/1150

  3. #5883
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post

    Long way to go with injuries and stuff. But we have a pretty good idea what each team is about.

    Da Cubs. Even if a Cubs pitcher goes down, or anyone else for that matter, Theo Epstein has the money, the bullets and the stones to add pieces. There are always regular season heros in slap nut divisions. Them Cubs are built for tournament play too.

    this is a very good list given what we know now.

    Why not share the mystery team and all the particulars. Why do you feel you need to hedge now? You brought this up. So give it up.

    Of course, GL
    Wasn't really trying to hide what I had, I have Orioles at like 45-1, put down about 350 before season.

    If it wasn't for the fucking Cubs this would be hella easier and I could probably wait. A nice losing streak would be nice to give me a little better odds on them, but they are just destroying everyone and don't see that happening. But then again how much better can their odds get? They are 5-1 now. I'm just spitballing here though, Cards a few years ago won 86 I think and took championship.

    I was originally going to wait til the playoffs and then just pound every other team but my limits might hurt me in tbat scenario. Max future is $500. But either way Cubs are the damn problem.
    My advice? Hold tight. Congratulations on what looks like. Very good bet for what you got it at. Way too long a season to start making hedges now.

  4. #5884
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Ervin Santana/Strikeouts u5 (-130)
    Header: Twins @ Indians - Ervin Santana total batters struckout

  5. #5885
    They are driving the odds so low on the Cubs I am going to have to start betting the run line. I think Ill bet the ML for say $1,000 and the run line for $300 (which is about the profit on the ML). Don't fail me now Arrieta. Anyone else bet like that?

    Last year fading the White Sox was $, this year the opposite of course. Atlanta and Twins the new whipping boys this year.

    All eyes on Cubs, Orioles and White Sox for the wins.

  6. #5886
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post

    Cubs opened at -250 and it shot up to -300.

    Feeling a chalk parlay

    (1) Pitt Penguins -200
    (2) Toronto Raptors ML (-205)
    (3) Golden State Warriors ML (-370)
    (4) Chicago Cubs -1 (-135)
    (5) Cleveland Indians ML (-200)
    (6) Washington Nationals GM #1 -1 (-110)

    100/1150
    Tail ya on
    (4) Chicago Cubs -1 (-135)
    (6) Washington Nationals GM #1 -1 (-119)

    GL on parlay. Looks good but I don't do drugs

  7. #5887
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Charham View Post
    They are driving the odds so low on the Cubs I am going to have to start betting the run line. I think Ill bet the ML for say $1,000 and the run line for $300 (which is about the profit on the ML). Don't fail me now Arrieta. Anyone else bet like that?

    Last year fading the White Sox was $, this year the opposite of course. Atlanta and Twins the new whipping boys this year.

    All eyes on Cubs, Orioles and White Sox for the wins.
    Looks great...... Today. But fortunes have been lost betting on the run line.

  8. #5888
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    My UFC guy likes this one a bunch.... Says line should be -150

    Renato Moicano Carneiro ML (+110)
    Header: Renato Moicano Carneiro [9(0)-0-1] vs Zubaira Tukhugov [18(6)-3-0]
    Scheduled : 05/14/16 6:30 PM (EST)
    Accepted: 05/14/16 2:16 PM (EST

  9. #5889
    3-0

    You hurt me to the quick with that money line truism.

    The rest is on you Daly.

  10. #5890
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    3-0

    You hurt me to the quick with that money line truism.

    The rest is on you Daly.
    Not to scare anyone off. I know sharps that can beat sides, I know sharps that can beat totals and dare I say I know a thing or two about beating props.

    I've never met anyone who beats the Puck/Run line.

    Need to get by Toronto. No way I'm going against the home team in a game 7, but Miami is experianced.

  11. #5891
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I totally would have done the Cubs run line. Arrieta just mows them down, and Locke sucks.

    Unfortunately it wasn't available (much like Sanlmar found) when I went to bet it initially. Then I went to sleep, and so went the game.

  12. #5892
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I totally would have done the Cubs run line. Arrieta just mows them down, and Locke sucks.

    Unfortunately it wasn't available (much like Sanlmar found) when I went to bet it initially. Then I went to sleep, and so went the game.
    It was it posted late at the book I got it at. Cubs are just fucking destroying teams, the 1 run has only mattered in 4 of the 28 wins they have had. At $2.00+ of value for that .5 run its been a no brainier to bet the run line.

    If history means anything this won't last but it holds true for now.

    I'm auto betting (with some limitations) the Sawks over and the Cubs Run line. Neither will last the whole season but it's a sharp angle for now.

     
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      Charham: you da man

  13. #5893
    I can see why the long odds are so low on Cubs now (actually down to an insane 3.5-1). History says they are going deep and about half the time winning it all barring a small miracle or rash of injuries.

    1984 Tigers 35-5, WS Champions
    1986 Mets 20-4, WS Champions
    1939 Yankees 29-7, WS Champions
    2001 Mariners 20-4, Lost ALCS
    1998 Yankees 23-6, WS Champions
    1970 Reds 22-6, Lost in WS
    1969 Orioles 20-8, Lost in WS

  14. #5894
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I totally would have done the Cubs run line. Arrieta just mows them down, and Locke sucks.

    Unfortunately it wasn't available (much like Sanlmar found) when I went to bet it initially. Then I went to sleep, and so went the game.
    It was it posted late at the book I got it at. Cubs are just fucking destroying teams, the 1 run has only mattered in 4 of the 28 wins they have had. At $2.00+ of value for that .5 run its been a no brainier to bet the run line.

    If history means anything this won't last but it holds true for now.

    I'm auto betting (with some limitations) the Sawks over and the Cubs Run line. Neither will last the whole season but it's a sharp angle for now.
    Thanks Daly for posting your thoughts, you seem practical and reasoned. All things I aspire to be be. :-) In any event good stuff. As you said, Cubs destroying and I want to find a way to make more $ on them. I am going to start expanding my run line action to do it. I missed the game as I took my son to see the new avengers movie, so nice surprise was waiting. Funny they were down 0 - 2 and I wasn't sweating a bit. Turned phone off, then at end of movie cha ching! wish the all were that easy.

  15. #5895
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Books are running sacred. The total for the Sawks is posted at 11.

    I'm not scared.

    Houston Astros/Boston Red Sox o11 (-110)
    Header: Houston Astros (15-22) @ Boston Red Sox (22-14)
    Scheduled: 05/15/16 1:35 PM (EST)

     
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      Reno: With ya - Bovada Over 10.0 (-120)

  16. #5896
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    To continue the Cubs conversation I do think the books are hemorrhageing money right now on them. Almost 10 am and the only line they have up is Cubs -165. No run line, no total, no team totals.

  17. #5897
    Bronze VegasJim's Avatar
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    The Players Championship Day 4

    Feeling confident about Today's pick...

    Graeme McDowell -110 (1.5 BTC) VS Shane Lowry

    Lowry has been in bad form lately (had a nice open round of 65) Hes been struggling mentally lately and has been having mini meltdowns and is questioning why he should even be entering tournaments. I watched the full coverage of the tournament so far and never saw Lowry like I did yesterday during the end of the round. He looked mentally and physically drained. He clearly put some weight back on and was just dragging his ass trying to finish yesterday and It was obvious to me that he didn't even want to be there and was just going thru the motions.

    On the flip side Graeme McDowell has been getting into a nice groove and had a fantastic round of 69 yesterday on brutal conditions.

    I was lucky to get bet placed in time after having issue getting in authenticator on phone to transfer bitcoins.

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  18. #5898
    Bronze VegasJim's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Books are running sacred. The total for the Sawks is posted at 11.

    I'm not scared.

    Houston Astros/Boston Red Sox o11 (-110)
    Header: Houston Astros (15-22) @ Boston Red Sox (22-14)
    Scheduled: 05/15/16 1:35 PM (EST)
    I jumped on the OVER with you. I ended up getting good line at Nitrogen and have Over 10 -118

    GL

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  19. #5899
    Over by the 3rd. Sox are cruising. Good week betting Sox overs

  20. #5900
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Books are running sacred. The total for the Sawks is posted at 11.

    I'm not scared.

    Houston Astros/Boston Red Sox o11 (-110)
    Header: Houston Astros (15-22) @ Boston Red Sox (22-14)
    Scheduled: 05/15/16 1:35 PM (EST)
    Wicked pissa money truck. Sawks

    Books gotta be hemorrhaging more money on Sox than Cubs

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