*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[JeffDime]

For entertainment purposes only. If I had to pick one for each tournament this week

ATT Pebble - Seamus Power 20-1 Weak field and he has been in great form. Big opportunity for him.

DP Tour - Ryan Fox 18-1. No great reason. Just like him.

Saudi International - Cam Young 10-1. Waffled a bit because he is a fish out of water there with all the LiV guys. But he has played much more competitive golf in the last few months than pretty much this whole field.

* Golf betting can be stressful and expensive. Variance is huge. Only advantage is the stress increases your chances of having a massive heart attack one day, so you can save money buying shittier Long Term Care Insurance to help offset costs associated with the variance.

GL!

[Daly]

For entertainment purposes only. If I had to pick one for each tournament this week

ATT Pebble - Seamus Power 20-1 Weak field and he has been in great form. Big opportunity for him.

DP Tour - Ryan Fox 18-1. No great reason. Just like him.

Saudi International - Cam Young 10-1. Waffled a bit because he is a fish out of water there with all the LiV guys. But he has played much more competitive golf in the last few months than pretty much this whole field.

* Golf betting can be stressful and expensive. Variance is huge. Only advantage is the stress increases your chances of having a massive heart attack one day, so you can save money buying shittier Long Term Care Insurance to help offset costs associated with the variance.

GL!

I can endorse Power as a good pick, but I'm all in on Putnam.

[Daly]

More i thought through the LIV play the more i Like Cam Young

[Sanlmar]

Today sports wagering became legal in Massachusetts. To honor this sad occasion and ensuing offshore crackdown I thought I would contribute something for tomorrow.


The NHL All Star break commences after tomorrow’s two games. Bruins vs the Leafs (Leafs always Leaf) & Sabres vs Hurricanes

Bruins are on a 3 game losing streak. They were legend for their power play (5 players vs 4). Lately they are 0-12 & 3-27 (last 7 games) on the power play. Successful teams cash these opportunities. This is a serious concern.

For me to even entertain Bruins I need to know Ullmark is in net. The Bruins are shenanigans with goalie confirmation. Just prior to puck drop someone comes outta locker room. Books need to list goalies like MLB pitchers.

Toronto has been rolling lately. They Leaf against weak teams but come to play against good teams.

The line has been drifting toward Boston but line movement and alleged sharp action isn’t a thing in NHL wagering. Just a data point that triggers CLV regret. Maybe we pass.

Sabres +140 vs Hurricanes
Sabres have the best offense in hockey. Meh defense. Meh goalie expected tomorrow. Meh

Hurricanes were down tonight 4-1 to LA Kings (+1640 ML). They came back and won in OT 5-4. Heroic They are still partying. Their hair is still wet.

Hurricanes will have played 3 games in 4 days. They can lose tomorrow with dignity and a pounding headache and go on break satisfied win or lose. Sabres have been resting since Saturday.

I can’t bet the game yet because BOL has become faggot but when it opens I am hitting Sabres.

Stream of consciousness but there ya go.

[Sanlmar]

I have consistently praised BOL for years. I have never ever brought any criticism. I have always been paid quickly. I have been 100% satisfied with customer service.

They take big bets and don’t cry. They originated lines. Their live betting provider was top top. Very sharp.

I very rarely funded other outs. I made money. Sure I used SBR (Rip) and other tools to monitor lines at other books. I felt satisfied with my marriage.

BOL has become fearful and weak. Their new live provider has very shallow offerings and is public af. Awful spreads. Will lock you out during interesting spots.

I wonder if they originate lines anymore. Doubt it. No trading desks either, I’m sure. Their overnight offerings are pathetic. They do not allow parlays on props between games. THEY DO NOT ALLOW ALT LINE PARLAYS which has proven a very lucrative angle in the legal world. Take (3) +2.5 Pucklines and parlay them, for instance.

It’s vanilla sex.

I foretold the sun was setting on the Golden Age of Sports Wagering. Quantity does not mean quality. I wouldn’t bet the legal spreads I’m seeing with your money… and then get taxed? Get outta here.

Kids all bubbly saying they are using a free bet on this game or that booster. Yeah, moron. You just told me the stupid line on tonight’s game. Your arsehole is bleeding and MGM feels bad.

Sad times.

[Starbucks Spunk Bucket]

[Daly]

We are suposedly a bunch of MLB experts in here….

[JeffDime]

More i thought through the LIV play the more i Like Cam Young

He moved to 9-1 so he’s taking action. Sanctioned by Asian tour btw so if someone is in a state where they allow betting on that you may not have to bet this offshore.

[Sanlmar]

Alt line wagering porn. The 1P under gives me the biggest pause but it shouldn’t given goalies and game total.

When I was a kid growing up on the farm such things were unthinkable.

[Dan Druff]

Boston vs Brooklyn - Under 224

NCAAB:
Villanova +170 at Marquette - FIRST HALF

[Dan Druff]

Boston vs Brooklyn - Under 224

NCAAB:
Villanova +170 at Marquette - FIRST HALF

Didn't expect Boston to put up 139. Still only lost the pick by 11. Oh well.

Finally hit one of those NCAAB 1H bets. Nova squeaked by 35-34 in 1H.

[JeffDime]

More i thought through the LIV play the more i Like Cam Young

He moved to 9-1 so he’s taking action. Sanctioned by Asian tour btw so if someone is in a state where they allow betting on that you may not have to bet this offshore.

Day 1 in Golf of course have to be muted. But with Young shooting 5 under and T3, DJ withdrawing an hour before tee off with a back injury and Cam Smith shooting 3 over…..can’t ask for much more. Just I should of bet more. Regardless of outcome from here. He’s the clear favorite now. Hold your tits. Need a good start to the year.

Fox had a nice round as well. Still could brick it all but nice to see guys starting well.

[Sanlmar]

We are suposedly a bunch of MLB experts in here….

Hope this helps


With the break in sports we have time to do MLB homework. Prelim list. Feedback expected.

These are Bookmaker numbers for reference. They have a trading desk. Not a retarded way to start the exercise. You know my attitude about futures generally especially baseball (1 year Certificate of Deposit). Futures hold is a cheat math-wise. Bookmaker takes size if you pop them repeatedly.

Am I driving to Wynn Boston for legal futures? I will have to pray on it. I have a moral dilemma


Astros +585 (autobet)
Just stupid talent with great development and pitching prospects. No $ games on service time. Haves and have nots in modern pros

Yordan Alvarez +1100 MVP AL

Framber Valdez +2500 CY Young

Gunnar Henderson +250 ROY AL
Treating myself to a sugary snack

Grayson Rodriguez +1200 ROY AL
Pitchers and playing time? Longer odds be better but it’s a savvy idea

Jordan Walker +675 ROY NL
Insane talent

Corbin Carroll +325 ROY NL
Centerfield Diamondbacks. He will play and not get screwed with IMO

Sandy Alcantara +410 Cy NL
We are supposed to bet him but his team stinks and he’s screwing around in WBC. Just a mention out of completeness

Something weird with the absence of Oscar Colás ChiSox ROY. He is definitely in your portfolio and him missing adds to my interest

I know you favor lottery numbers but you have to choose players on winning teams who will get time and don’t share votes with team mates etc. There is a process and everyone uses it, I guess. Time is just gonna make it worse in today’s sports wagering. I’m actually late.

If you want Miguel Vargas +750 Dodgers 2nd base you need to PM me first. I’ll take your $ and give you a Denny’s gift card

Just realized I have no Padres. Hmmm. Is what it is. Split votes and nothing tantalizing.

[Sanlmar]

12 hours into break and it feels like the pandemic already.

[Sanlmar]

Saw you lurking Druff.

If you want a fun bet on opening day Shortstop (you stubborn mule) let me know. It’s Lux. It was always Lux and no matter how bad he is he will be your guy til All Star break.

Dodgers don’t adjust. They are smarter than us.

Vargas, Lux, Muncy

Los Angeles has a huge tv market and they need to bring entertainment to the masses in this off year.

Remember Nomah? (Anthony Nomar Garciaparra) Your ‘roided shortstop in 2008’ish (I forget). Lux gave me flashbacks. His arm sucks cause he doesn’t know how to throw a baseball not because he was weak.

Lux shirtless on Sports Illustrated?

The Red Sox Dodgers player swaps were funny at first but it’s time to build a wall.

[gut]

I'll play as well and add thoughts to San's choices. I'm looking at draftkings lines:

We are suposedly a bunch of MLB experts in here….

Hope this helps


With the break in sports we have time to do MLB homework. Prelim list. Feedback expected.

These are Bookmaker numbers for reference. They have a trading desk. Not a retarded way to start the exercise. You know my attitude about futures generally especially baseball (1 year Certificate of Deposit). Futures hold is a cheat math-wise. Bookmaker takes size if you pop them repeatedly.

Am I driving to Wynn Boston for legal futures? I will have to pray on it. I have a moral dilemma


Astros +585 (autobet)
Just stupid talent with great development and pitching prospects. No $ games on service time. Haves and have nots in modern pros
Agreed, Astros safest pick for probably the next 5 years. I like Seattle +1700 and STL +1900 for value
Yordan Alvarez +1100 MVP AL
Ohtani too low to bet, and I wouldn't bet anyone else while he exists. Lindor +2500 in NL is a fun value play IMO
Framber Valdez +2500 CY Young
Framber +1500 on DK, as good a choice as any. Castillo +1800 if you believe in Seattle. DeGrom as the fave is hilarious.
Gunnar Henderson +250 ROY AL
Treating myself to a sugary snack
Yoshida +1000 if fading Gunnar
Grayson Rodriguez +1200 ROY AL
Pitchers and playing time? Longer odds be better but it’s a savvy idea

Jordan Walker +675 ROY NL
Insane talent

Corbin Carroll +325 ROY NL
Centerfield Diamondbacks. He will play and not get screwed with IMO
Agree on Carroll, De La Cruz +1500 is tempting but Reds might do service time shenanigans
Sandy Alcantara +410 Cy NL
We are supposed to bet him but his team stinks and he’s screwing around in WBC. Just a mention out of completeness
Strider at +1300 sounds like fun
Something weird with the absence of Oscar Colás ChiSox ROY. He is definitely in your portfolio and him missing adds to my interest
Colas is +2200 on DK
I know you favor lottery numbers but you have to choose players on winning teams who will get time and don’t share votes with team mates etc. There is a process and everyone uses it, I guess. Time is just gonna make it worse in today’s sports wagering. I’m actually late.

If you want Miguel Vargas +750 Dodgers 2nd base you need to PM me first. I’ll take your $ and give you a Denny’s gift card

Just realized I have no Padres. Hmmm. Is what it is. Split votes and nothing tantalizing.

[Dan Druff]

Here is an interesting article about same-game parlays, now allowed in Vegas: https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/i...me-game-parlay

The article is by ESPN's David Purdum, the same guy who wrote the article about my being victimized by that BetMGM theft ring back in October. I've talked to him on the phone a few times about various matters.

Anyway, the article mentions how occasionally these can be exploited for profit, such as one time in January when Draymond Green was forecasted to only play a few minutes, so sharp bettors hammered the under on points/rebounds/assists with him, and parlayed all 3. They made out very well.

[Sanlmar]

Here is an interesting article about same-game parlays, now allowed in Vegas: https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/i...me-game-parlay

The article is by ESPN's David Purdum, the same guy who wrote the article about my being victimized by that BetMGM theft ring back in October. I've talked to him on the phone a few times about various matters.

Anyway, the article mentions how occasionally these can be exploited for profit, such as one time in January when Draymond Green was forecasted to only play a few minutes, so sharp bettors hammered the under on points/rebounds/assists with him, and parlayed all 3. They made out very well.

Nobody is running game simulations on hockey and it’s not a big exposure. We like it that way. You see no mention of NHL in the article.

I’m in a private discord hockey chat and a couple guys are onto some SGP angles that are so frustrating to just watch. I call it alt-line parlays & SGP porn. They ATM every night. Just grinding +100 to +200 wagers. I’m like a cuck jerking off in the corner.

The books are not responding just as the books did not respond to NHL 1P’s back in 2017/18. Now betting by period is a huge part of the industry.

The books will close this loop too. They always do.

In my world, offshore practices old fashioned values and nothing new is gonna develop cause it’s dying. There is no investment happening nor should here be.

Interestingly, we tip members who share their analytics. Some guys work hard on their stuff. There are only 7-8 guys. PFA being anti tip and all.

[tigerpiper]

Superbowl props?

Eric Eager (Sumer sports) said on a pod today Noah Gray 60-1 first TD was amazing. He does seem to be in on Chiefs goal line sets but my sham book only has it at 33-1.

[Starbucks Spunk Bucket]

Superbowl props?

Eric Eager (Sumer sports) said on a pod today Noah Gray 60-1 first TD was amazing. He does seem to be in on Chiefs goal line sets but my sham book only has it at 33-1.

25/1 William Hill