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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #33141
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    So I'm not sure if I've won 8 MLB picks in a row before. Since I don't pick favorites very often, that's not easy to do. I didn't have any big dogs, but everything was either a small-moderate dog or a small favorite.

    The funny thing is that this was NOT a good MLB season for me until this run. Last year I had a nice second half, and I was excited to continue the winning this season, but I was scuffling. Obviously there's been some luck here (a few came close to losing and held), but I didn't have any fluke comebacks, either.

  2. #33142
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    So itís recently been brought to my attention that @tigerpiper sent Druff $100 as a thank you for my JT Poston tout a few months back.

    I also was lucky enough to finish second in the freeroll the other night which to my understanding is +$100 to the Daly Kitty.

    Despite what some consider a checkered past here at PFA Iíd like to try and put these funds to good use.

    Iím thinking we could set up a PFA nfl Pickem pool vs the spread. Iíll put up the $200 and an additional $100 and we can ask for smaller donations. Be a season long activity. Get some interest in sports betting in general across the site. We can even have a prize for last place. Maybe we get Druff to throw in a hat or have a special hat made or a custom avatar or tile added.

    The other avenue is we could try and do a group pick and the FFAWT tries to run it up as much as we can or go broke in the process. Maybe we go double or nothing on the super bowl and if we end up with a big pot o cash we throw the biggest freeroll poker tournament we have ever had.

    Or maybe we pick a future bet and throw it all on there


    Iíd asking for feedback here. Iíd genuinely like to try and do something semi positive for PFA hereÖ.. but I canít invest a shit ton of time either


    Thoughts?
    I want my $50 back!

     
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      Daly: You deserve $200 dealing with this crowd

  3. #33143
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    I think survivor is best. Easy. Second choice is a Daly controlled slush fund w peanut gallery input. I could do it w my bookie as Iím not sharp but my max is only $1500/bet. I vote for survivor pool.
    Iím kidding about the $50.

     
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      Daly: Thank you again for the funding…. Let’s put it to good use

  4. #33144
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    Or William Anderson Heiman all in- I got 1700, so that would be a sweet free roll.

  5. #33145
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tigerpiper View Post
    Or William Anderson Heiman all in- I got 1700, so that would be a sweet free roll.
    I really like his chances but I have a rule that 25-1 is the min Iíd ever bet on this award.

    If you have nothing on him and want to fire $100 to be part of the party go ahead.

  6. #33146
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tigerpiper View Post
    I think survivor is best. Easy. Second choice is a Daly controlled slush fund w peanut gallery input. I could do it w my bookie as Iím not sharp but my max is only $1500/bet. I vote for survivor pool.
    Iím kidding about the $50.

    I think survivor is in the lead here. Makes a lot of sense and has the right amount of time commitment from most of the people on the board.


    Iíll obviously give my feedback on football plays over the season.

    Also - anyone here on ďprize picksĒ? Itís a player prop based parlay app. I already have a few grand locked up there on season long bets and absolutely smoked the openers. I imagine Iíll be making some plays week to week on there this season. They listed Ken seals as the starting QB for VandyÖ.. heís already announced as the backup. If he plays one snap, which he very well might, they just gave me +200 on a handful of college player props for week 0Ö. ďThank youĒ.

  7. #33147
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Jon Rahm for all the marbles

  8. #33148
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Is the possibility Tom Brady not coming back priced to season wins ?

    The face lift must not have gone well.

  9. #33149
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Risking my 8 game streak with 2 dogs:

    KC (Castillo) +165 at Tampa (Patino)
    Pittsburgh (Brubaker) +138 vs Boston (Winckowski)

  10. #33150
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Pirates up 6-0, so it looks like I'll probably have a winning day.

    However, my streak is going to be broken unless the Royals can score. Bottom 5, they're down 1-0.

    Would be really sweet to have a 10-game win streak -- something I've never had before in sportsbetting.

  11. #33151
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Druff is in the zone. Coin flippy day. Let’s see what he likes.

    I think the Guardians should be around -160 and they are -127 vs CWS. Pressed for time so I can’t indulge in my usual nonsense post.

    There is a battle currently. It pops back and forth between -127 and -132 as I post. Whatever.

    BOL is offering an Odds Booster. I ignore them as policy but let’s make an exception.

    Odds Booster - Orioles & Guardians both to Win - Was +241 NOW +290


    Now the parlay is really +260 not +241. I’m not gonna get into the whole bet booster shenanigans rampant out there. I’m still getting +30 of value.

    Red Sox @ Orioles is a flippy game. I think Sawks Kutter Crawford is worse than he appears. No prize on the road either. Red Sox could not have been beat more completely by any team as they were by the Pirates 2 days ago.

    I want to parlay the banned Padres (Nationals +300) and banned Jays (Yankees +100) for ~ +645. Kicking it on a remote island sipping drinks with umbrellas kind of fantasy.

     
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      BCR: Nice hit
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 08-19-2022 at 10:16 AM.

  12. #33152
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Jays have won two in a row and Springer is back.....

    As bad as the Jays have been playing do you really want to back the Yankees who have been playing worse?

    If you were getting +130 or something sure, but for an even flip? Stay away imo.

  13. #33153
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Jays have won two in a row and Springer is back.....

    As bad as the Jays have been playing do you really want to back the Yankees who have been playing worse?

    If you were getting +130 or something sure, but for an even flip? Stay away imo.
    I like Jay’s Gausman and think he’s better than his numbers.

    Jays are the least profitable team this year vs the least profitable team the past 30 days. There’s a lotta pain taking the field tonight in da Bronx.

    Jays are still banned.

  14. #33154
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    You got that prop shop Prize Picks, Daly?

    Any value here?

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      Sheesfaced: Ha

  15. #33155
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    You got that prop shop Prize Picks, Daly?

    Any value here?

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    Iíd get Bauer out of there. Thatís a parlay buster for sure. Guy is getting a bad deal.

    Rest is Gucci

  16. #33156
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    The guys running prize picks I’m sure are raking in cash.

    I’m in a discord of some of the greatest college football minds in the country. I say that half in jest but it’s 100% fair to say they are all top 10 percentile in projecting college football players. I almost got the boot last week because they didn’t like what I had to say.

    Prize picks came out with season long college player numbers. I can tell you the prize picks guys are sharp as fuck. At first glance you look at the numbers and some, but not all, of the projections are 15%-20% lower than what you would generally expect. And the population where it’s the most off was star “big name” (by college standards) players.

    Sharp as fuck

    Within 3 hours the discord was ablaze. Emergency videos were being published. Stroud was at 3900 yards - should be 4500. Caleb 3000 should be 3600…. Get your money down NoW before the lines moved. Strange thing was even 2-3-4 days later none of these were adjusted up.

    Thing is with this format is you have to parlay. There is no option to bet a single player. When you get a under in a single game you can win the bet multiple ways. That’s why 90% of the time the under is the sharp play. The player can simply not get to his projection. The player may have been drinking and is sitting out the 1q. The star freshman behind him has busted his ass at practice and has earned playing time. And…… injury. But when you bet a single game you have 4 quarters for an injury to happen. When you betting a season long you got 48 quarters of opportunity and football is a violent game.

    Everyone in the discord firing and posting mostly overs except yours truly. I took all my 5 favorite under and put them in a $200 round Robin - ten bets. Others did the same. All of them had the absolute best play of them all Sam Hartman QB Wake forest 3000ish yards. Sam is seemingly a 8th year Jr with an incredible team coming back. Most saying 4,000 yards is a better projection. Well Sam came out last week and anounced he’s going to miss half the season. If you put in a round Robin 4 of your 10 bets are now in the trash.

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    Needless to say when the players became available I was telling everyone who would listen to pass on the overs. When the Hartman news broke I pointed out this as fact….. didn’t make many friends to say the least.

    So TL;DR the prize picks guys invented a format where they got the sharpest projection guys over a barrel because they didn't understand the format.

    For the record my round Robin, to the under obv

    Will Rogers Hail St 4600 (now 4500)
    R Ali Marshall1402 (now 1302)
    S Tucker Orangeman 1275 (now 1175)
    D Vaughn K St 1320 (Now 1220)
    P Washington We Are 999 (now 929)

  17. #33157
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Yes, I too think Prize Picks is sharp af.

    I more often than not check Prize Picks o/u strikeouts and scan batter props just to get another feel for a game - especially pitching.

    I saw a low strikeout number today that I have since forgotten and it got me off a game that I was leaning toward. That kind of thing. I understand the overnight lines have opportunity but these numbers get hammered to exquisite perfection by the time I look in the afternoon. That’s info I use.

    I have issues with the juice and have never actually placed a bet with them. It’s just a personal choice. I’m not a prop guy. When I dabble my results aren’t great. I use them for information. I ain’t gonna beat them.

    They offer a lot of specials - I’m leary of sharps bearing gifts. It’s the odds boost caution I was brought up with.

    PrizePicks has a lot of social media presence. Sponsored shows and such. It’s a sophisticated operation.

    I did take Gausman over 5.5 in a nod to the Jays without actually violating the strict ban that authorities have place on them.

  18. #33158
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    This one starting in a few but I like it. Time to start another streak after my 1-1 day yesterday.

    Boston (Crawford) -106 at Baltimore (Lyles)

  19. #33159
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Let's pair it with a nice Texas under.

    Texas (M. Perez) at Minnesota (Bundy) - Under 8 -110

  20. #33160
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Welllllll

    This is gonna be a wild one.

    3-3 already in Sawks/Orioles game and we're only in the 3rd. 2-0 Sawks, then 3-2 Orioles, now 3-3.

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