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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #33041
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Thanks for those plays, Sanlmar.

    Here's one more, starting very shortly:

    Baltimore (Wells) +130 vs. Yankees (Taillon)

    Note that Taillon has given up 5-6 ER in 3 of his last 5 starts.

  2. #33042
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Druff has been a real mensch lately so Iím going to treat him to a Druff-style play or two.

    Oakland Athletics @ home +104 v Texas
    Oakland is trash. Letís just put that on the table and get it out of the way. They cannot score and Oakland is a pitchers park.

    Texas pitcher has 7 ERA and all peripherals lead you to assign him the worst pitcher in baseball. His FIP is 7.70. His WHIP is 1.74. If you spend time with him it gets comically worse.

    Texas was in Miami yesterday. Iím sure they enjoyed South Beach. Cross country flight. One of the worst. Oakland played a double header yesterday but it was @ home and they were in their bed with nightly night tea at a reasonable hour.

    Roll this in a parlay with Brewers @ +176 or take a RL +200 (on a 7.5 total cause you are a sicko). Youíre an adult - I canít live your life for you.


    Now this isnít classically Druff-style but I believe the contrarian vibe will have appeal for you.

    Atlanta Braves @ home -141 vs Angels (Ohtani). No Trout, itís summer so heís out.

    Ohtani is super human. He has captured the ploppies imagination. I won a AL MVP future with him last year. The greatest player in my lifetime these past two years.

    I hate to put this out there but I remember the recuperative power of steroids. I simply do not understand what is going on with this guy.

    Angels manager prolly wishes he didnít go to the All Star game. Ohtani is on the road. Admittedly the hellscape that is Atlanta in summer is really kinda cool tonight. Angels bullpen is rubbish. If Ohtani goes a full 7 I worry. Typically we are laddering strikeouts with him and Iím sure people are entering those tickets now.

    Braves are orders of magnitude better than Angels. My retahd model has Braves -200.

    Again, consider the RL +150. 7 total. Depends on your strength of character. Iím a nit. Itís too late for me to change but intellectually I know what is right.

    Finally, I offer you the Sawks Jays LIVE over

    Wind out to center 10mph. 90ís and humid. Little bandbox with some legit boppers on both sides. It was 8.5 and is now 9.

    Two good pitchers and if we can get a NRFI or more we might see 8 or better. Jays bullpen is rubbish. Iím of the opinion Sawks bullpen is not as good as their numbers.

    If there are 3 runs in the top of the 1st you move on but Iím in your head and thatís what matters to me most.

    ďMight see 8 or betterĒ

  3. #33043
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Really become a fucking nightmare year for me with my picks playing well tee to green. Putts just missing and eventually the rest of the game suffers. This shit with Nelly now Iím pretty close to be over with it tbh. How somehow she is only 10 under is pretty mind boggling but par for the course for me this year.

  4. #33044
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post
    Really become a fucking nightmare year for me with my picks playing well tee to green. Putts just missing and eventually the rest of the game suffers. This shit with Nelly now Iím pretty close to be over with it tbh. How somehow she is only 10 under is pretty mind boggling but par for the course for me this year.
    Hang in there, it's not over yet. If she can get within 3 or 4 shots by the end of today, tomorrow could still be competitive. Depends on whether Brooke Henderson comes back a bit or at least slows down. A lot of players to pass but no one else in the top 10 right now other than Henderson and maybe SY Kim and Alison Lee should be of too much concern.

  5. #33045
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post
    Really become a fucking nightmare year for me with my picks playing well tee to green. Putts just missing and eventually the rest of the game suffers. This shit with Nelly now Iím pretty close to be over with it tbh. How somehow she is only 10 under is pretty mind boggling but par for the course for me this year.
    She said sheís having a hard time sleeping and jet lag is killing her.

    Iíd gladly volunteer to help her with her sleeping issues.

  6. #33046
    Silver Sandwich's Avatar
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    Four months ago, UFC at the O2 in London was a UK-fighter winfest, super hyped up crowd, so UFC snap "sheduled" another -- UFC London, which starts in less than 2 hours. The market is expecting a repeat performance but I don't believe the UK hype! Surely the "hometown" fighters have some advantages vs. the jetlagged fighters getting booed by the drunken masses, but I think there are some significant underdogs on this card worth betting. Here's what I got...

    Mandy Bohm -115, 1 unit vs. decent German fighter mediocre American Victoria Leonardo
    Charles Johnson +400, .5 unit vs. largely-untested Dagestan Russian Muhammed Mokaev who makes his home in the UK
    Charles Rosa +450, .5 unit vs. English favorite Nathaniel Wood
    Paul Craig +130, 1 unit, Scottish underdog who hits hard and is a definite grappling threat
    Hanna Goldy +360, .5 unit, solid American striker vs. overhyped Liverpool Molly "Meatball" McCann
    Jordan Leavitt +210, .5 unit, American wrestler/grappler vs. Liverpool "sensation" Paddy "the Baddy" Pimblett
    Curtis Blaydes +130, 1 unit vs. UK headliner Tom Aspinall

  7. #33047
    Silver Sandwich's Avatar
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    last minute just added...
    Jack Hermansson -105, 1 unit, solid Scandi fighter who gets beat only by top competition vs. short-notice good American (who fought recently) Chris Curtis

  8. #33048
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Going to be a lot of happy bookies this week. Todays MLB was a bloodbath. Saw a lot of ďfree moneyĒ type tweets on favorites which completely shit the bed at -300 prices.

  9. #33049
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Adding Auburn over 6 and Louisville over 6.5 to my season long totals.


    If you can find a Virginia under 7.5 thatís at -160 or better thatís a bet. Itís probably a bet up to -300 becuase I donít see that team getting to 8 wins but things can and will go wrong from time to time.

  10. #33050
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Going to be a lot of happy bookies this week. Todays MLB was a bloodbath. Saw a lot of ďfree moneyĒ type tweets on favorites which completely shit the bed at -300 prices.
    Yep. I bet against Cleveland tonight because they simply canít beat the Red Sox. Lost 9/10 by a combined score of 95-30, no problem, Cleveland is coming to town.

    I had a free parlay bet so I threw the Astros, Brewers, and Dodgers all -1.5. All three lost outright. All were -200 to -320.

  11. #33051
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    I think this is the week that Patrick Cantlay reminds us that heís a top 10 golfer.

    Iím not messing about with anyone else this week - Patrick at +1100

    (Ok I put break even money on Finau as a backup)

  12. #33052
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Massachusetts passed their sports wagering bill last night at the deadline. We had a good run.

    Remarkably, Mass legislators opted for the lower tax rate. Stuns this cynic. False economy but props

    Some claim bets will be accepted by the start of NFL so there is evidence that the requisite retahd element involved in legalized wagering is present.

    I will yield farm bonuses and likely take up chess

    It is claimed by some that Boston based DraftKings is the 3rd largest employer by some measure or another. That once legalized wagering gets rolling DK will be the #1 employer.

    Gross.

  13. #33053
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    FYP

    It is claimed by some that Boston based DraftKings is the 3rd largest employer by some measure or another. That once legalized wagering gets rolling DK will be the #1 Massachusetts employer.

  14. #33054
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    FYP

    It is claimed by some that Boston based DraftKings is the 3rd largest employer by some measure or another. That once legalized wagering gets rolling DK will be the #1 Massachusetts employer.

    Both state street and Fidelity have a lot of people as well (but not as many as 15 years ago).

  15. #33055
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    FYP

    It is claimed by some that Boston based DraftKings is the 3rd largest employer by some measure or another. That once legalized wagering gets rolling DK will be the #1 Massachusetts employer.

    Both state street and Fidelity have a lot of people as well (but not as many as 15 years ago).
    Financial services might be 10th on the list. Fidelity is still a thing. Lotta changes.

    You ever heard a California Prop 26 (sport wagering) ad? In pursuit of my doctorate in “Dodgers fail” I hear these local ads. The promises to save the wales, transgender homeless, Indians and every single special interest conceivable is unbelievable. I don’t think I ever heard a single Mass sports wagering ad.

    Licenses in Mass will be $5m. I understand California licenses will be $100m. Yes, I have the proper number of zeros.

    There is no conceivable way you can offer anything remotely playable if the companies are behind $400m before the first ticket is written and every special interest is getting a taste.

    Light regulation
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 08-01-2022 at 06:31 PM.

  16. #33056
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post
    Really become a fucking nightmare year for me with my picks playing well tee to green. Putts just missing and eventually the rest of the game suffers. This shit with Nelly now I’m pretty close to be over with it tbh. How somehow she is only 10 under is pretty mind boggling but par for the course for me this year.
    She said she’s having a hard time sleeping and jet lag is killing her.

    I’d gladly volunteer to help her with her sleeping issues.
    Too bad she didn’t take you up on it. Was cruel how she had it to -14 at the turn and just totally shit bed on the back. Jerry Foltz was the only tolerable part of the LPGA broadcasts and he has defected to LIV. I remember him asking Lydia about getting physio work a few weeks ago in the last round and she told him it was her time of the month and she was cramping.

    When Nelly talked about he jet lag it just not something you want to hear about from the golfer you have a lot of coin on. You want them to block all that stuff out. You know their human and don’t feel well some days like the rest of us, but when you have a few g birds on them it just is so titling to hear.

    Anyways Lydia shit the bed at the Scottish last week. Two 7 under bogey free rounds on Thursday and Friday and then a struggle to shoot par over the weekend. I’m shipping on Nelly. She took off last week and you can get her +1200 in the right places. This is a bet I had to make. Only decision is how much I pile.

    PGA I like Zalatoris +1600. I’m fucking way overdue. Nelly and Will would make a beautiful couple come Sunday. Using my one time.

    Live semi-long shot would be Joohyung Kim 35-1. Guy is trending really well. Took him in a matchup Sunday (Something I am focusing more on) and he won that by 7 strokes. Gonna put a saver bet on him for the week. Not gonna pile.

    Worried a bit about Billy Horschel but price sucks. If he plays as well as he talks about how well he plays gonna have to fade.
    Last edited by JeffDime; 08-02-2022 at 07:32 AM.

  17. #33057
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Spreading it out over Lowry, Poston, SW Kim and Simpson.

  18. #33058
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Oh, it on

    Sportsbooks Retaliate with New Ad Attacking Rich California Tribes

    In a press release issued Tuesday by a coalition opposing California Proposition 27, members called the latest ad — funded by major out-state-sportsbooks — "despicable" and "shameful."

  19. #33059
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Oh, it on

    Sportsbooks Retaliate with New Ad Attacking Rich California Tribes

    In a press release issued Tuesday by a coalition opposing California Proposition 27, members called the latest ad ó funded by major out-state-sportsbooks ó "despicable" and "shameful."
    Oh yeahÖ. For the three or so weeks where sports was up in the air in Florida the commercials got down right comical. Both sides even hired people on the ground to walk around at malls and other public places to hand out flyers. The war on public opinion is fucking comical if you understand the players involved.

    Ultimately it was the greedy out of state corporate assholes vs the greedy selfish Indians. Everyone is greedy except the side you want to win, they arenít greedy at all. They are either for the children that the revenues will bring or for in state local interests to keep the money local.

  20. #33060
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Oh, it on

    Sportsbooks Retaliate with New Ad Attacking Rich California Tribes

    In a press release issued Tuesday by a coalition opposing California Proposition 27, members called the latest ad — funded by major out-state-sportsbooks — "despicable" and "shameful."
    Oh yeah…. For the three or so weeks where sports was up in the air in Florida the commercials got down right comical. Both sides even hired people on the ground to walk around at malls and other public places to hand out flyers. The war on public opinion is fucking comical if you understand the players involved.

    Ultimately it was the greedy out of state corporate assholes vs the greedy selfish Indians. Everyone is greedy except the side you want to win, they aren’t greedy at all. They are either for the children that the revenues will bring or for in state local interests to keep the money local.

    I swear I never heard a single ad for Massachusetts sports wagering. The other guys can bear witness.

    This despite New England being the hottest sports talk market in the country by a huge margin.

    On a side note. New Hampshire is legal and has been for quite a while. I predict the books will shutter their operation.

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