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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #33021
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Royals missing 10 guys due to covid restrictions (wtf)

    Odds are astronomical so need to get fancy unless you want to do -1.5 -200

    Jays over 5.5 runs -110.

  2. #33022
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Royals missing 10 guys due to covid restrictions (wtf)

    Odds are astronomical so need to get fancy unless you want to do -1.5 -200

    Jays over 5.5 runs -110.
    The Blue Jays are on the banned list regardless.

    How will they lose to some AAA kids? That’s the fun of baseball. You are always surprised.

    -390 on the Blue Jays should trigger an international incident.

  3. #33023
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Very last minute:

    Cubs (K. Thomson) +120 vs Mets (Carrasco)

  4. #33024
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Royals missing 10 guys due to covid restrictions (wtf)

    Odds are astronomical so need to get fancy unless you want to do -1.5 -200

    Jays over 5.5 runs -110.
    The Blue Jays are on the banned list regardless.

    How will they lose to some AAA kids? That’s the fun of baseball. You are always surprised.

    -390 on the Blue Jays should trigger an international incident.

    I swear whenever you have one of these well publicized -400 games because of some bullshit excuse the all time
    Record is 1-500

  5. #33025
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    I am willing to offer myself as a sponsor to both of you - Simpdog and Druff.

    Maybe “sponsor” is the wrong term as I’ve never had either of your problems.

    I can’t stand by and watch you do this to yourselves and your families.


    Just say “no” to the Jays Simp. It’s the hair isn’t it? Hockey guys are suckers for great flow.

  6. #33026
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    I don’t think many of you are doing much with the golf, but for completeness….


    I think the am/pm split is being massively under reported at the moment. In fact it was 364 days ago Colin played the PM at ~ -3 when everyone else played the pm wave at +4. This was when a bunch of us doubled down on him.

    Rory and Smith are and should be odds on favorites at the moment. That said Im willing to bet in 24 hours Cantlay, Speith, Fitz and Rahm will catch up. I would sure as hell bet Theegala at +8600 before I’d take Rory at +375

  7. #33027
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    I don’t think many of you are doing much with the golf, but for completeness….


    I think the am/pm split is being massively under reported at the moment. In fact it was 364 days ago Colin played the PM at ~ -3 when everyone else played the pm wave at +4. This was when a bunch of us doubled down on him.

    Rory and Smith are and should be odds on favorites at the moment. That said Im willing to bet in 24 hours Cantlay, Speith, Fitz and Rahm will catch up. I would sure as hell bet Theegala at +8600 before I’d take Rory at +375
    I think completeness could involve assembling & presenting your positions on this tournament.

    I don’t know any of these guys but my impression is we just keep adding names. I have zero sense where you are at.

    Show me your accumulated action and maybe I’d pick something to tail for a lark.

  8. #33028
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    I am willing to offer myself as a sponsor to both of you - Simpdog and Druff.

    Maybe “sponsor” is the wrong term as I’ve never had either of your problems.

    I can’t stand by and watch you do this to yourselves and your families.


    Just say “no” to the Jays Simp. It’s the hair isn’t it? Hockey guys are suckers for great flow.
    I will take a break until the all star break.

    Should take a break until hockey starts.

  9. #33029
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    I had a podcast on the other day while I was programming.

    It involved Pinnacle hiring Magic the Gathering kids as traders in Curaçao back in the day.

    There was a sharp who was smoking Pinny. He took maybe a million one particular year. Pinnacle invites him in and talks to him. He’s a Magic the Gathering player. He makes the case that the skill set for that game lent itself to trading. The sharp convinces Pinnacle that hiring these players was the thing to do.

    The guy being interviewed in my podcast was a gamer and Magic kid. Studied Finance @ university. Never played or bet sports. Finance had nothing to do with his appeal to Pinnacle. He wasn’t the top player. He presumed he was 7th or 8th on the list of those hired.


    The Pinnacle owner was aware the Magic kid knew shit about sports. He was given a desk regardless. I recall he was assigned totals. I think it was totals for baseball. He was supposed to just figure it out. He received phone calls from the owner but that was it.

    I got sidetracked and missed the end of the podcast. My autism allows me to tunnel. I don’t have any idea how I stumbled onto the pod.

    MickeyCrimm got me into Risk of Ruin but I’m not sure what leap I took from there. I’m losing it.

  10. #33030
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Been a tough stretch, but I’ve been painfully close way too many times to count. I wish I was picking guys not making the cut, I would of probably given you by now.

    Anyways, this week is the Evian in France for the LPGA. Lately the Asians have been winning. I think the jet lag unfortunately is a concern going with Nelly, but I just have to do it. She lost in a playoff ( I had her ) a few weeks back. So she’s been in contention since dealing with the blood clot.

    As for last week, in a team event she effectively shot 9 under with a bogey on Sunday. On a course with only two Par 5s nonetheless. She will have 4 reachable ones in France. Of course best ball frees them up a bit but she still annihilated the course. I am worried about a slow start like she had last year with the jet lag, but she’s the play at 11-1. Pound it. Got to pound it.

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  11. #33031
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post
    Been a tough stretch, but I’ve been painfully close way too many times to count. I wish I was picking guys not making the cut, I would of probably given you by now.

    Anyways, this week is the Evian in France for the LPGA. Lately the Asians have been winning. I think the jet lag unfortunately is a concern going with Nelly, but I just have to do it. She lost in a playoff ( I had her ) a few weeks back. So she’s been in contention since dealing with the blood clot.

    As for last week, in a team event she effectively shot 9 under with a bogey on Sunday. On a course with only two Par 5s nonetheless. She will have 4 reachable ones in France. Of course best ball frees them up a bit but she still annihilated the course. I am worried about a slow start like she had last year with the jet lag, but she’s the play at 11-1. Pound it. Got to pound it.

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    Ok I’m in. I also fired JY KO. Figure between them both I’ll have something to watch Sunday.


    I took cam Davis Ice cold at +2500 for the 3M and only offshore. Turns out locals don’t like it when you go JT Poston, Fitz, Brick, Cam Smith over 4 weeks. Got two dear John calls yesterday….. supposed to be adding accounts this time of year not losing them.

  12. #33032
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Ok I’m in. I also fired JY KO. Figure between them both I’ll have something to watch Sunday.


    I took cam Davis Ice cold at +2500 for the 3M and only offshore. Turns out locals don’t like it when you go JT Poston, Fitz, Brick, Cam Smith over 4 weeks. Got two dear John calls yesterday….. supposed to be adding accounts this time of year not losing them.
    Great handicapping brother. I’ve had Cam Davis last two weeks so I think your looking good and I’ll have a few bucks on him as well.

    Poston at the John Deere I didn’t go with because I thought he would regress that week. Instead he took the great opportunity to get a win in that field and played unbelievable esp first 3 days. Great pick and nice win. I had Cam Davis.

    Fitz I could of had but just didn’t make my final cut for the US Open. Had Sheffler. Looked good leading after 8 on Sunday. But Fitz beat him straight up. Hung in there and of course got the best lie in a bunker I’ve ever seen on 18 ( was hoping for a playoff) but he still had to make that shot and he did. Another great pick and win. Tip the cap.

    As for the Open. You always been a big Cam Smith guy and it looks pretty soon that we are just going to have him in the majors. I thought the driver would cost him. I didn’t realize the left miss (the one he has) is really not that bad on a majority of holes on the old course. It really only cost him on the 13th on Saturday. Best putting performance I’ve seen in my life. Another great pick.

    First bet of substance I cashed in a while was Scott Dixon +550 in the Indy car race last Sunday. He dominated with no bullshit. Modest win but I’m hoping it’s starts a turnaround for me. Was nice to get a fucking W. Long ass drought.

  13. #33033
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    This ticket with Nelly 3 clear on Sunday when Scottie took the lead alone after 8…well I’m glad there was no one recording me. Helped the pain with both losing.

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  14. #33034
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    You all are miles and miles and miles better at this than I will ever be, but regarding JY KO, my observation for whatever it's worth is that she has lost a bit of her swagger ever since that fiasco on the 17th hole in the 3rd round at Wilshire Country Club back in April, when while leading the tournament, she hit her second shot into the barranca, in the mud and which has like a 6ft wall to get out of, and her caddie wrongly advised her to try to hit it out. It was bad. She took an 8 on that par 4, has stayed loyal to her caddie when he probably should be fired, and has not been the same ever since. I was there watching that day and I've actually been right next to that spot. It was a stupid move. The video has strangely been wiped clean from the internet or I would post it.

    Even losing some of her swagger leaves her in the top 5% of the field every week, and she did finish 4th in the US Open, but she's not the machine over 4 rounds like she was before imo.

    Edit: by the way, had Ko just picked up her ball and taken a dropped shot, she most likely would have gotten away with just a bogey 5 and would have led the tournament going into the 4th round (DIO Implant LA Open).

    Any way good luck to all, will be fun to watch! (watch her win it now lol)
    Last edited by JoeD; 07-19-2022 at 09:47 AM.

  15. #33035
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JoeD View Post
    You all are miles and miles and miles better at this than I will ever be, but regarding JY KO, my observation for whatever it's worth is that she has lost a bit of her swagger ever since that fiasco on the 17th hole in the 3rd round at Wilshire Country Club back in April, when while leading the tournament, she hit her second shot into the barranca, in the mud and which has like a 6ft wall to get out of, and her caddie wrongly advised her to try to hit it out. It was bad. She took an 8 on that par 4, has stayed loyal to her caddie when he probably should be fired, and has not been the same ever since. I was there watching that day and I've actually been right next to that spot. It was a stupid move. The video has strangely been wiped clean from the internet or I would post it.

    Even losing some of her swagger leaves her in the top 5% of the field every week, and she did finish 4th in the US Open, but she's not the machine over 4 rounds like she was before imo.

    Any way good luck to all, will be fun to watch! (watch her win it now lol)
    I agree Joe 100%. Daly got the hot hand. J Ko certainly has been off form but she has and will come out of the fucking blue and play well time after time. She is very hard on herself I’ve found and very streaky in results for such a solid (not explosive) player. She has taken a good amount of time off but that she has played herself into contention and wins off a layoff before. Great price too.

    She also tends to play her best towards the later part of the season. Asian players are traveling the right way so they don’t have to worry about the jet lag. So there are many reasons to like her this weekend. So I’ll try to stretch the bankroll enough to get a few bucks on her. Hope all is well with you.

  16. #33036
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Best take on LIV Golf and the changing sports landscape I’ve heard. Figured a lot of you would enjoy it. 11 minutes.


     
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      Sanlmar: +1

  17. #33037
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Might have a good one on your hands here jeff….. Kelly damn well could have been 12 under today.

     
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      JeffDime:

  18. #33038
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post
    Best take on LIV Golf and the changing sports landscape I’ve heard. Figured a lot of you would enjoy it. 11 minutes.

    How sport is changing in monstrous fashion is an interesting subject to be sure. I could listen all day to that discussion.

    College sports is my personal favorite. Kind of a called shot for me.

    What distracted me was my curiosity about why a middle aged man was broadcasting from his bedroom like some tweener TikTok kid. Not sure I’ve ever laid eyes on Russillo before this.

     
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      JeffDime: Good eye San. I don’t listen to him regularly it came up on my YouTube recs but you’re right it’s wieird.

  19. #33039
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Might have a good one on your hands here jeff….. Kelly damn well could have been 12 under today.
    Approach green was really great 17/18 GIR. Of course a bunch of puttss had good rolls that didn’t go in. She had a couple sliced long fairway woods on par 5s that cost her. She will need to take advantage of those going forward. I am glad she didn’t force it on the last hole yesterday and played that chip way past the whole rather than trying to get it close and risk it coming back to her feet.

    Cam Davis isn’t out of it yet but the guy needs to stop dicking around out there. We don’t need the disaster hole and countless missed putts. He’ll have to post a good round this morning.

    *5/5 GIR to start round and 10 putts to start round. Looks like going to need to get the par 5s to stay near top of the dam board.
    Last edited by JeffDime; 07-21-2022 at 11:37 PM.

  20. #33040
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Druff has been a real mensch lately so I’m going to treat him to a Druff-style play or two.

    Oakland Athletics @ home +104 v Texas
    Oakland is trash. Let’s just put that on the table and get it out of the way. They cannot score and Oakland is a pitchers park.

    Texas pitcher has 7 ERA and all peripherals lead you to assign him the worst pitcher in baseball. His FIP is 7.70. His WHIP is 1.74. If you spend time with him it gets comically worse.

    Texas was in Miami yesterday. I’m sure they enjoyed South Beach. Cross country flight. One of the worst. Oakland played a double header yesterday but it was @ home and they were in their bed with nightly night tea at a reasonable hour.

    Roll this in a parlay with Brewers @ +176 or take a RL +200 (on a 7.5 total cause you are a sicko). You’re an adult - I can’t live your life for you.


    Now this isn’t classically Druff-style but I believe the contrarian vibe will have appeal for you.

    Atlanta Braves @ home -141 vs Angels (Ohtani). No Trout, it’s summer so he’s out.

    Ohtani is super human. He has captured the ploppies imagination. I won a AL MVP future with him last year. The greatest player in my lifetime these past two years.

    I hate to put this out there but I remember the recuperative power of steroids. I simply do not understand what is going on with this guy.

    Angels manager prolly wishes he didn’t go to the All Star game. Ohtani is on the road. Admittedly the hellscape that is Atlanta in summer is really kinda cool tonight. Angels bullpen is rubbish. If Ohtani goes a full 7 I worry. Typically we are laddering strikeouts with him and I’m sure people are entering those tickets now.

    Braves are orders of magnitude better than Angels. My retahd model has Braves -200.

    Again, consider the RL +150. 7 total. Depends on your strength of character. I’m a nit. It’s too late for me to change but intellectually I know what is right.

    Finally, I offer you the Sawks Jays LIVE over

    Wind out to center 10mph. 90’s and humid. Little bandbox with some legit boppers on both sides. It was 8.5 and is now 9.

    Two good pitchers and if we can get a NRFI or more we might see 8 or better. Jays bullpen is rubbish. I’m of the opinion Sawks bullpen is not as good as their numbers.

    If there are 3 runs in the top of the 1st you move on but I’m in your head and that’s what matters to me most.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 07-22-2022 at 11:42 AM.

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