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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #32861
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Now take that money and bet over 7.5 Dodgers Pirates. It’s coming.

    The Dodger ploppies ruin the party with their optimism


    Edit

    I cheated and scaled in @ 8.5 but it wasn’t that smart and it was small

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    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-30-2022 at 07:46 PM.

  2. #32862
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    Rublev -152 vs cilic 3u

    Cilic playing great but he is very inconsistent, old, and should only be able to win on clay 20-25% here

    Gauff vs Stephens under 21.5 games -110 1.5u

    Gauff is solid favorite but got steamrolled in their only matchup. Sheís very young and hasnít lost a set this tourney. I think sheíll mostly likely finish Stephens easily but if she loses the first set, sheís still intimidated by the older American and will fold under the pressure of a major qf

    Pegulla +6 games -115 vs Swiatek 1.5u under 19 games -120 1u

    Swiatek in dominant form but the American has split their 2 matches and is playing well enough to not get embarrassed. The under is somewhat of a hedge - very hard to lose both and very possible to scoop

    Nadal vs Djokovic over 37.5 games -115 1u

    Djokovic wrecking people but Nadal should get at least a set on clay

    Trevisan +168 vs Fernandez 1u

    Trevisan late bloomer hasnít dropped a set in the 4 matches this open. Fernandez dropped a set in each of last 2 matches. Even match on clay

    *not investment advice - an inverse leveraged ETF fading these picks is probably more profitable

     
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      Sanlmar: More please

  3. #32863
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    Quote Originally Posted by SinglesHitter View Post
    Rublev -152 vs cilic 3u

    Cilic playing great but he is very inconsistent, old, and should only be able to win on clay 20-25% here

    Gauff vs Stephens under 21.5 games -110 1.5u

    Gauff is solid favorite but got steamrolled in their only matchup. She’s very young and hasn’t lost a set this tourney. I think she’ll mostly likely finish Stephens easily but if she loses the first set, she’s still intimidated by the older American and will fold under the pressure of a major qf

    Pegulla +6 games -115 vs Swiatek 1.5u under 19 games -120 1u

    Swiatek in dominant form but the American has split their 2 matches and is playing well enough to not get embarrassed. The under is somewhat of a hedge - very hard to lose both and very possible to scoop

    Nadal vs Djokovic over 37.5 games -115 1u

    Djokovic wrecking people but Nadal should get at least a set on clay

    Trevisan +168 vs Fernandez 1u

    Trevisan late bloomer hasn’t dropped a set in the 4 matches this open. Fernandez dropped a set in each of last 2 matches. Even match on clay

    *not investment advice - an inverse leveraged ETF fading these picks is probably more profitable
    You know your shit

    I've done about $1m volume the last three years 50/50 pre and live. Some of the best value spots in sports betting. Try live betting on it a couple of hits of acid and you may be shocked how easy it is to feel the turns in momentum. Betting huge dogs against tilt machines like ostapenko or paire. Good fun
    Last edited by ok25; 05-30-2022 at 11:27 PM.

  4. #32864
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    Quote Originally Posted by ok25 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SinglesHitter View Post
    Rublev -152 vs cilic 3u

    Cilic playing great but he is very inconsistent, old, and should only be able to win on clay 20-25% here

    Gauff vs Stephens under 21.5 games -110 1.5u

    Gauff is solid favorite but got steamrolled in their only matchup. Sheís very young and hasnít lost a set this tourney. I think sheíll mostly likely finish Stephens easily but if she loses the first set, sheís still intimidated by the older American and will fold under the pressure of a major qf

    Pegulla +6 games -115 vs Swiatek 1.5u under 19 games -120 1u

    Swiatek in dominant form but the American has split their 2 matches and is playing well enough to not get embarrassed. The under is somewhat of a hedge - very hard to lose both and very possible to scoop

    Nadal vs Djokovic over 37.5 games -115 1u

    Djokovic wrecking people but Nadal should get at least a set on clay

    Trevisan +168 vs Fernandez 1u

    Trevisan late bloomer hasnít dropped a set in the 4 matches this open. Fernandez dropped a set in each of last 2 matches. Even match on clay

    *not investment advice - an inverse leveraged ETF fading these picks is probably more profitable
    You know your shit

    I've done about $1m volume the last three years 50/50 pre and live. Some of the best value spots in sports betting. Try live betting on it a couple of hits of acid and you may be shocked how easy it is to feel the turns in momentum. Betting huge dogs against tilt machines like ostapenko or paire. Good fun
    Thereís something about womens tennis where if you look beyond the rankings, their form and history on surface/vs opponent/setting can provide some key clues. Like most individual sports, mental game is paramount. Itís probably be more interesting to see them play on acid than for me to bet on acid. Something to consider tho

    Gauff beat Stephens easily and will never lose to her again imo. And Trevisan got the upset. So far

    2-0 +3.18u

     
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  5. #32865
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    Nadal/Djokovic live under 40.5 games -105 1u

    Nadal might win this in 4. Decent chance to middle w low vig

  6. #32866
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    Ready for a slugfest?

    Humberto Castellanos is not good, and even with 4 games against the Cubs and Marlins, his ERA sits at 5.22.

    Charlie Morton has a 5.28 ERA and 1.534 WHIP.

    Neither of these dudes seem to be improving.

    Let's bet on the first 5 innings -- which is probably the maximum either of these guys will last.


    Atlanta (Morton) at Arizona (H. Castellanos) - OVER 5 -120 FIRST 5 INNINGS

     
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      Sanlmar: Solid. Pleased to see your wagering growth

  7. #32867
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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      Sanlmar: How much fun is that?

  8. #32868
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    You are pretty much obliged to take the +224 Pirates tonight.

    Careful with late Dodger pitcher shenanigans. They may go with their #1 ace Gonsolin. I’m pretty sure they will personally. List pitchers or die

    Edit
    Speaking of autobets

    Tampa Bay Lightning/New York Rangers under 5Ĺ -121
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 06-01-2022 at 07:50 AM.

  9. #32869
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    You are pretty much obliged to take the +224 Pirates tonight.

    Careful with late Dodger pitcher shenanigans. They may go with their #1 ace Gonsolin. Iím pretty sure they will personally. List pitchers or die

    Edit
    Speaking of autobets

    Tampa Bay Lightning/New York Rangers under 5Ĺ -121
    Beat me to it....on it already.

    Are we going to see 7.5 posted for Avs/Oilers at some point?

    I know we're forbidden to speak NBA @ GA but what's the consensus on local sports talk? Do they believe?

    I feel like -155 GSW is free money unless someone gets injured game 1 or 2.

  10. #32870
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    You are pretty much obliged to take the +224 Pirates tonight.

    Careful with late Dodger pitcher shenanigans. They may go with their #1 ace Gonsolin. I’m pretty sure they will personally. List pitchers or die

    Edit
    Speaking of autobets

    Tampa Bay Lightning/New York Rangers under 5Ĺ -121
    Beat me to it....on it already.

    Are we going to see 7.5 posted for Avs/Oilers at some point?

    I know we're forbidden to speak NBA @ GA but what's the consensus on local sports talk? Do they believe?

    I feel like -155 GSW is free money unless someone gets injured game 1 or 2.
    Yes, 7.5 coming but I’ll do something live. I just gotta believe they come out with the idea of slowing each respective opponent down. Of course, that’ll get punted after the first cheap goal.

    I am filled with self loathing for not betting the live totals over. I was kind of hypnotized by the action. I did 2 Oilers next goals @ some sweet plus money (+138) particularly after the AV’s goalie injury. I had the PL +133 so I wet myself when the empty netter was scored. I should be happy but I spotted weakness in my game when I reviewed the tape.

    I have a Warriors future so I’m really covered with the Finals

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    I have included my Vlad future cause I need to pay that off somehow.

    The Celts will be a little gassed. It’s the NBA and it’s jacking 3’s. Do they fall? Do they miss? It’s plinko. I’d lean Warriors ML with some chalky partner like the Mets or Astros. As sick as I am I don’t need that action. Perhaps the NBA playoff blowout trend continues. -3.5 won’t matter.

    Speaking of paying off…. Daly was opining some nonsense about paying off his mortgage early. I mocked him cause sacrificing low interest long term debt is just plain country stupid. There is good debt and bad debt, yada yada. Garrett came to Daly’s defense so the forum was :e*tertained by the pair.

    I’m being advised to pay off my mortgage. My gambling markets and sports was brought up. I do have a youthful blowup that is part of my legend too. I like to think this is all a fun little side hustle and no one knows but it came up with the financial guy. The spousal unit will never have to worry when some bookie drops me in Lake Mead…. or some financial disaster (Russia) occurs.

    I was gonna save the story for GA but being passive aggressive is sweet release

    I see a lot of MLB I like. Noodling
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 06-01-2022 at 08:33 AM.

  11. #32871
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    I know we're forbidden to speak NBA @ GA but what's the consensus on local sports talk? Do they believe?

    I glossed over the fact that you weren’t asking my opinion. Reading comprehension issues and the challenges associated with being self absorbed

    I was in the car for hours over the holiday and Celtics was all that was discussed. Boston sports talk typically savages the home team and that’s why we listen. NBA Finals? Let’s rip the Celtics. Talk radio was crucifying Marcus Smart for out shooting his team mates. This was “retahded” (Boston accent) and would be costly if it continued.

    Boston sports media does not see a layup. You should hear what they say about the Red Sox - too funny.

    Speaking of great local sports talk. The opposite of great, LA’s Joe Davis, is going national? What the absolute fuck? He is an empty headed, least sharp homer who is in love with his own peculiar affected delivery. He wasn’t doing the Dodgers games for a week or so and I was hoping he died of AIDS or something.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 06-01-2022 at 08:55 AM.

  12. #32872
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Tennis on acid atm. Cilic Rublev. Tie break

    Rublev is the name but not clay

  13. #32873
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    You are pretty much obliged to take the +224 Pirates tonight. W

    Careful with late Dodger pitcher shenanigans. They may go with their #1 ace Gonsolin. I’m pretty sure they will personally. List pitchers or die

    Edit
    Speaking of autobets

    Tampa Bay Lightning/New York Rangers under 5Ĺ -121 L
    The Dodger live wagering handle these past few games must have been insane. Just hoovering stacks

  14. #32874
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Tennis on acid atm. Cilic Rublev. Tie break

    Rublev is the name but not clay
    Yup I knew it was a bad play when the line moved down to -136. No idea how cilic is pulling these wins off but he looks pretty lean and fit. It was some bad acid today after going 5-0 on day 1 and middling the live total. Next time Iím reaching for the DMT and if that does get me in the zone Iím going right to the shaman for some frog poison.

    Day 1 5-0 +6.18u
    Day 2 1-2 -5.21u

    Overall +0.97u

  15. #32875
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SinglesHitter View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Tennis on acid atm. Cilic Rublev. Tie break

    Rublev is the name but not clay
    Yup I knew it was a bad play when the line moved down to -136. No idea how cilic is pulling these wins off but he looks pretty lean and fit. It was some bad acid today after going 5-0 on day 1 and middling the live total. Next time I’m reaching for the DMT and if that does get me in the zone I’m going right to the shaman for some frog poison.

    Day 1 5-0 +6.18u
    Day 2 1-2 -5.21u

    Overall +0.97u
    Tennis on acid. I had little doubt clay was not Rublev’s surface despite his enormous gifts. Regardless of score they just kept giving great Cilic odds. Had to buy. Just had to.

    I binked Nadal too.

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  16. #32876
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post

    Beat me to it....on it already.

    Are we going to see 7.5 posted for Avs/Oilers at some point?

    I know we're forbidden to speak NBA @ GA but what's the consensus on local sports talk? Do they believe?

    I feel like -155 GSW is free money unless someone gets injured game 1 or 2.
    Yes, 7.5 coming but I’ll do something live. I just gotta believe they come out with the idea of slowing each respective opponent down. Of course, that’ll get punted after the first cheap goal.

    I am filled with self loathing for not betting the live totals over. I was kind of hypnotized by the action. I did 2 Oilers next goals @ some sweet plus money (+138) particularly after the AV’s goalie injury. I had the PL +133 so I wet myself when the empty netter was scored. I should be happy but I spotted weakness in my game when I reviewed the tape.

    I have a Warriors future so I’m really covered with the Finals

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    I have included my Vlad future cause I need to pay that off somehow.

    The Celts will be a little gassed. It’s the NBA and it’s jacking 3’s. Do they fall? Do they miss? It’s plinko. I’d lean Warriors ML with some chalky partner like the Mets or Astros. As sick as I am I don’t need that action. Perhaps the NBA playoff blowout trend continues. -3.5 won’t matter.

    Speaking of paying off…. Daly was opining some nonsense about paying off his mortgage early. I mocked him cause sacrificing low interest long term debt is just plain country stupid. There is good debt and bad debt, yada yada. Garrett came to Daly’s defense so the forum was :e*tertained by the pair.

    I’m being advised to pay off my mortgage. My gambling markets and sports was brought up. I do have a youthful blowup that is part of my legend too. I like to think this is all a fun little side hustle and no one knows but it came up with the financial guy. The spousal unit will never have to worry when some bookie drops me in Lake Mead…. or some financial disaster (Russia) occurs.

    I was gonna save the story for GA but being passive aggressive is sweet release

    I see a lot of MLB I like. Noodling
    I’ve noticed a pretty heavy trend in these one team is considerably more rested series that the team coming from the more recent war fares well in the first half against team with a little rust. Boston after war with Bucks went into Miami, led by 8 at half, Miami won by 11. The rest factor seems a second half phenomenon.

    I’ll take a gander at Celts first half and then GS second and see if it plays out with value.

  17. #32877
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Jays -1.5 +100
    Oilers +150 --no Kuemper for Avs. Both Smith and Francouz are not ideal but if the Oilers are going to make it a series tonight is the night to jump back in.


    *** do not read below here unless you're an absolute degen and you bet on Russian ping pong with San at 3am ***

    Warriors -140 for series is free money without injury to green/curry/thompson.

    Boston will not be a pushover but Warriors in 6 is my pick.

  18. #32878
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Your boy Manoah stressed me out 1st inning.

    I have ZERO feel for the NHL playoffs. Iíve lost it. Costing me money. The fact that I am avoiding the +150 Oilers and am dicking around with totals tells you Iím scared money. I needed the pep talk.

    Waiting for the ploppie Dodger money (if they have any left) to get down and then Iíll prolly do something nitty like +1.5 -130 Mets. I have a feeling Gonsolin comes back to earth. I really havenít studied his extended stats yet. Just a hunch.

    I have the Warriors future so Iíll prolly catch the last 3 minutes of the basketball game and watch hockey instead. GA has issued their guidelines and this is deemed acceptable behavior


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      Dan Druff: GA approved

  19. #32879
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Doogie Houser has struggled lately. He got bombed twice by Cincinnati, of all teams, then had two good starts, and got hit hard by St. Louis last time out.

    He battles Sean Manaea, who hasn't been as good as San Diego has hoped, but has only allowed 43 hits in 56 innings, so I think he will improve on his 4.03 ERA.

    One thing to watch out for: 7-9mph wind blowing out today in Milwaukee. Houser hasn't been a big home run guy, and indeed he's only allowed 3 HR in his 46 IP this year. Manaea has allowed 8.

    Still, I believe the Padres will shake off their sweep by the Cardinals and win this one today, and Manaea will have a fairly good game.

    San Diego (Manaea) -108 at Milwaukee (Houser)

  20. #32880
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SinglesHitter View Post

    Yup I knew it was a bad play when the line moved down to -136. No idea how cilic is pulling these wins off but he looks pretty lean and fit. It was some bad acid today after going 5-0 on day 1 and middling the live total. Next time Iím reaching for the DMT and if that does get me in the zone Iím going right to the shaman for some frog poison.

    Day 1 5-0 +6.18u
    Day 2 1-2 -5.21u

    Overall +0.97u
    Tennis on acid. I had little doubt clay was not Rublevís surface despite his enormous gifts. Regardless of score they just kept giving great Cilic odds. Had to buy. Just had to.

    I binked Nadal too.

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    Nadal was great pick. Those live bets were definitely the ones on acid but Cilic +150 was also good pick. Sometimes in tennis esp mens tennis, when the score is like 4-3, it might be an even match or one player might be 75-80% to win the set, depending who is serving

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