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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #32121
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Everyone always knows that Harvard has the largest endowment in the world. What nobody seems to know is Texas is #2. They love football. College football just became a game of who has the largest wallet.
    There is a joke that Jerry Tarkanian always had to deal with the hassle of how he was gonna get his recruits their new cars. Today he would no longer have that headache.

    I wrote close to a hundred posts about Oliver Luck, the NCAA paying athletes and all that. That day has pretty much arrived. Paying college athletes is in its infancy though.

    I have known many kids who have played for Harvard. None were needy and none cared a wit about the size of Harvard’s endowment. That money doesn’t end up in the kids pockets. Not yet anyway. (That money is used for real estate)

    Whoever is most innovative in paying their recruits, will of course, win in your 5 year window. If Texas is successful it will have very little to do with their endowment and more to do with Texas auto dealership magnates and their love of sports. Personally, I am humble enough to know that somebody is gonna get really clever and shock the world.

    Eventually, the NCAA will roll over and private colleges will write checks directly. I have a serious damn problem with state schools paying athletes. We will see.

  2. #32122
    Cavs +5.

    Utah just isn't the dominant regular season team without Gobert they are with him.

  3. #32123
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Serious question Simpdog

    Should I ride or buy off my
    Toronto Maple Leafs/Vegas Golden Knights over 1˝ -135 for 1st Period

    Toronto Maple Leafs/Vegas Golden Knights over 6 -102

    What’s your lean?
    True story -

    I went to Vegas and played in the ME. After I busted Mrs Daly and I went to breakfast the next day and I did a quick search on what was going on in town and saw the Knights were playing. Snap bought tickets on stub hub, a half a four person table. Awesome seats, awesome time I’ll be a bruins fan always but I Guess Vegas is now my West cost team.

    Now I needed a bet. After abusing Shot on Goal props for years I know enough that home ice advantage, or the ability to match up last at a face off, makes a huge difference in gameflow. Looked at the home games and noticed they were running 80% 6 goals or more. Snap purchased the over 5.5 -120.

    Cashed with :20 left in the second period.

    Ever since that day back in November I’ve bet the over when at home and I swear it’s still running 75%.
    I have walked around that area but never seen a game. It is a bucket list item, for sure. Place is electric. The best location for a rink in North America too.

    I always assumed you needed a casino host for tickets. There might be hope these days.

    I watched what VGK did for the first game the Kraken played in Vegas on television. It was unbelievable the lasers and holographs with knights fighting sea monsters etc. A Vegas style revue on ice. I can only imagine being at the rink.

    Watching live hockey in person near the glass is the best experience in spectator sports and it’s not close.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 01-12-2022 at 06:00 PM.

  4. #32124
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    San. AHL goalie in for Montreal now
    I honestly thought of firing my entire bankroll on this. In some fashion or another.

    In the end it’s sports and shit happens but I almost did it.

    I have more parlays than should be legal involving Bruins though. I lost my round robin virginity today.

  5. #32125
    These 1P’s. No words.

    If I had FanDuel or such I would start selectively laddering 1P’s. My offshore is prehistoric with derivatives.

    That’s my round robin btw. It was my first and I wanted the experience to be pleasurable. I have a scented candle lit.

  6. #32126
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Remember the days when Utah was consistently a low-scoring, defense-oriented team?

    Look at them now.

    It has been about a month since both teams didn't score over 100 in a Utah Jazz game.

    In 2022, totals have been: 239, 219, 224, 230, 238, 242

    Today I'll do this:

    Cleveland at Utah - Over 223.5

    COVID basketball though, at least on Utah's side
    Was going to sheep this, but took a peak and saw Cavs games haven't sniffed this total all year. So I'll pass, but GL.

  7. #32127
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Everyone always knows that Harvard has the largest endowment in the world. What nobody seems to know is Texas is #2. They love football. College football just became a game of who has the largest wallet.
    There is a joke that Jerry Tarkanian always had to deal with the hassle of how he was gonna get his recruits their new cars. Today he would no longer have that headache.

    I wrote close to a hundred posts about Oliver Luck, the NCAA paying athletes and all that. That day has pretty much arrived. Paying college athletes is in its infancy though.

    I have known many kids who have played for Harvard. None were needy and none cared a wit about the size of Harvard’s endowment. That money doesn’t end up in the kids pockets. Not yet anyway. (That money is used for real estate)

    Whoever is most innovative in paying their recruits, will of course, win in your 5 year window. If Texas is successful it will have very little to do with their endowment and more to do with Texas auto dealership magnates and their love of sports. Personally, I am humble enough to know that somebody is gonna get really clever and shock the world.

    Eventually, the NCAA will roll over and private colleges will write checks directly. I have a serious damn problem with state schools paying athletes. We will see.
    2 of my poker buddies that played in my games practically everyday online when the pandemic started are Coach Steve Fisher and Coach Bill Frieder. Two really nice guys and best friends for over 40 years. A lot of success on the court too. Before Fish arrived on the SDSU campus we were playing in 1500 seat Peterson Gym and winning 5 games a year. He built a great program here and I really feel he is a stand up guy. Frieders ASU teams got caught shaving and he never got a job after that. Good special on Netflix about it and young dudes just wanting some money in their pocket.. Listening to their stories about the Big 10 back then are great.. Bobby Knight, Glen Rice, rivalry with Illinois, Fab 5 etc...
    College athletes should get some stipend, and if USC doesn't get back to a national power I'll be surprised. SDSU would be a top team in football and hoops in the Pac 10, but I like the Mountain West and hope they stay there.. MW tourney in Vegas is always a good time.

     
    Comments
      
      Sanlmar: We are way past stipends now.

  8. #32128
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post

    My longer term prediction is within 5 years Texas will win a NC and become the new Alabama.

    Everyone always knows that Harvard has the largest endowment in the world. What nobody seems to know is Texas is #2. They love football. College football just became a game of who has the largest wallet.
    The Texas program is having issues because the student body and college apparatus is very woke but the boosters (and state in general) aren't. I predict this may actually be an issue, if it isn't already, that could hurt recruiting and product on the field. If you offered even money odds whether Texas would win the NC within 5 years I would definitely take the no side. I think it more likely there is some sort of student/player protest of some fake cause or another that completely derails the program (like the fake band protest over the "Eyes of Texas" song)

    I could definitely see USC benefiting from the money game though and becoming a contender again, because of the close proximity to the entertainment industry.

     
    Comments
      
      Sanlmar: USC & Hollywood. Original thinking
    Last edited by Kalam; 01-12-2022 at 06:27 PM.

  9. #32129
    Quote Originally Posted by padre33 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post

    There is a joke that Jerry Tarkanian always had to deal with the hassle of how he was gonna get his recruits their new cars. Today he would no longer have that headache.

    I wrote close to a hundred posts about Oliver Luck, the NCAA paying athletes and all that. That day has pretty much arrived. Paying college athletes is in its infancy though.

    I have known many kids who have played for Harvard. None were needy and none cared a wit about the size of Harvard’s endowment. That money doesn’t end up in the kids pockets. Not yet anyway. (That money is used for real estate)

    Whoever is most innovative in paying their recruits, will of course, win in your 5 year window. If Texas is successful it will have very little to do with their endowment and more to do with Texas auto dealership magnates and their love of sports. Personally, I am humble enough to know that somebody is gonna get really clever and shock the world.

    Eventually, the NCAA will roll over and private colleges will write checks directly. I have a serious damn problem with state schools paying athletes. We will see.
    2 of my poker buddies that played in my games practically everyday online when the pandemic started are Coach Steve Fisher and Coach Bill Frieder. Two really nice guys and best friends for over 40 years. A lot of success on the court too. Before Fish arrived on the SDSU campus we were playing in 1500 seat Peterson Gym and winning 5 games a year. He built a great program here and I really feel he is a stand up guy. Frieders ASU teams got caught shaving and he never got a job after that. Good special on Netflix about it and young dudes just wanting some money in their pocket.. Listening to their stories about the Big 10 back then are great.. Bobby Knight, Glen Rice, rivalry with Illinois, Fab 5 etc...
    College athletes should get some stipend, and if USC doesn't get back to a national power I'll be surprised. SDSU would be a top team in football and hoops in the Pac 10, but I like the Mountain West and hope they stay there.. MW tourney in Vegas is always a good time.
    Shouldn't say Frieder never got a job after that. He has been a very good advisor for the Suns for some time and told me before the draft at 7 Mile Casino they were taking Ayton. There was no clear cut #1 and a lot of people thought Doncic was and is the better player. Maybe, but if they took him Chris Paul probably never comes to Phoenix and they don't make the Finals run last year.

  10. #32130
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post

    My longer term prediction is within 5 years Texas will win a NC and become the new Alabama.

    Everyone always knows that Harvard has the largest endowment in the world. What nobody seems to know is Texas is #2. They love football. College football just became a game of who has the largest wallet.
    The Texas program is having issues because the student body and college apparatus is very woke but the boosters (and state in general) aren't. I predict this may actually be an issue, if it isn't already, that could hurt recruiting and product on the field. If you offered even money odds whether Texas would win the NC within 5 years I would definitely take the no side. I think it more likely there is some sort of student/player protest of some fake cause or another that completely derails the program (like the fake band protest over the "Eyes of Texas" song)

    I could definitely see USC benefiting from the money game though and becoming a contender again, because of the close proximity to the entertainment industry.
    If I thought it was an even money prop I wouldn’t mention it……

    They live football in Texas. Half the best players in the country come from there already. They just need to stop them from leaving the state. They can pay the most and are now part of the SEC.

    It’s an uphill climb but I think they can pull it off with a near perfect runout.

  11. #32131
    Out of 10 NFL wildcard games where the spread has been -10 or higher, the fave has went 9-1.

    The Steelers opened as a 13-point underdog at the Kansas City Chiefs, and that has gone down to 12.5 at BetMGM. That's still the biggest spread in wild-card weekend history, and by a decent margin.

  12. #32132
    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Cavs +5.

    Utah just isn't the dominant regular season team without Gobert they are with him.
    Never in doubt. I only wish I had bet more. That line made absolutely no sense at all. Cavs have skilled big men and Utah is starting Royce O'Neal at center. LOL Utah being a 5 point favorite.

  13. #32133
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Cavs +5.

    Utah just isn't the dominant regular season team without Gobert they are with him.
    Never in doubt. I only wish I had bet more. That line made absolutely no sense at all. Cavs have skilled big men and Utah is starting Royce O'Neal at center. LOL Utah being a 5 point favorite.
    yeah I considered this and stupidly went with the over. I guess I was gunshy after the Cavs disappointed me last time.

    I thought of moneylining this one though.

  14. #32134
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Kind of mad Bryson pulled out. He was a bad fit here and he was pulling in dollars from golfers I wanted to bet.

    Small bets on Lieshman, Gooch and Web. My matchup at the current price is My boy Si Wu > Dahmen at -115
    K Hickock at 100-1 for first round is worth a stab at the price on offer.

    I personally didn’t wait for the ending of the tournament and I jumped on about as much of Cam for Augusta as I could at +3000 or better. He’s down to +2500 now at most shops.
    You have always been big on Cam. There are some books that move very slow with Golf Futures. Particularly the ones that still run things old school. That’s enough of a hint for the lurkers. He can still be had at over 30-1 but you need to be in the right place.

    Watching the coverage from last year I think we both took a tough beat with Neinmann. Pretty sure we both had him pre-tournament. You are right, Bryson pulling out early fucked up the odds a lot.

    Corey Connors took alot of money, but he really likes the par 5s. Just tough to pull the trigger on him at his current odds. I think Webb is the guy that keeps coming to mind. I know he’ll play well Sunday like usual, just the rust is what’s giving me pause. Obviously wasn’t a problem with Cam last week.

    May even wait until the morning to play. But it may just be an off week for me b/c I clearly been having a tough time narrowing this field down. Just one of these weeks. Probably started with 10 guys in mind and only shaved off a couple.
    Last edited by JeffDime; 01-12-2022 at 08:30 PM.

  15. #32135
    Made my risk free bet on these nhl picks and the last leg is toronto to win. Coyotes goalie is killing me. Do I hedge or hold hockey gods?

  16. #32136
    I dare Clayton Kershaw to send a tweet to his childhood friend Matt Stafford before Monday night

    Playoff losers for life

  17. #32137
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Kind of mad Bryson pulled out. He was a bad fit here and he was pulling in dollars from golfers I wanted to bet.

    Small bets on Lieshman, Gooch and Web. My matchup at the current price is My boy Si Wu > Dahmen at -115
    K Hickock at 100-1 for first round is worth a stab at the price on offer.

    I personally didn’t wait for the ending of the tournament and I jumped on about as much of Cam for Augusta as I could at +3000 or better. He’s down to +2500 now at most shops.
    You have always been big on Cam. There are some books that move very slow with Golf Futures. Particularly the ones that still run things old school. That’s enough of a hint for the lurkers. He can still be had at over 30-1 but you need to be in the right place.

    Watching the coverage from last year I think we both took a tough beat with Neinmann. Pretty sure we both had him pre-tournament. You are right, Bryson pulling out early fucked up the odds a lot.

    Corey Connors took alot of money, but he really likes the par 5s. Just tough to pull the trigger on him at his current odds. I think Webb is the guy that keeps coming to mind. I know he’ll play well Sunday like usual, just the rust is what’s giving me pause. Obviously wasn’t a problem with Cam last week.

    May even wait until the morning to play. But it may just be an off week for me b/c I clearly been having a tough time narrowing this field down. Just one of these weeks. Probably started with 10 guys in mind and only shaved off a couple.
    Yes we did have Niemann. I had him for a small car. Freaking kid wasn’t keeping warm…. Him and his father figure Garcia were sitting around shooting the breeze assuming English wouldn’t catch him…… they were wrong. It was over when he made the playoff.

    I think I was able to hedge for 1K….. but the rest went up in flames.

    Was ready to call it quits on gold for a while but then hit Si Woo JT and luckboxed my way into Hideki at the masters and turned it into a decent year.

  18. #32138
    Quote Originally Posted by matos View Post
    Made my risk free bet on these nhl picks and the last leg is toronto to win. Coyotes goalie is killing me. Do I hedge or hold hockey gods?
    +230 Coyotes should allow you to lock in some cash.

    Toronto still has Mrazek in net. One stupid goal and you got zero for your effort.

    Toronto may not survive a shootout with Mrazek in overtime.

    Come on Matthews - one more

     
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      matos: Props to the hedging king for the timely advice

  19. #32139
    and it’s gone

    2-1 Coyotes

  20. #32140
    Hedged right before the goal to limit the loss could only get 300$ on the book.

     
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      Sanlmar: Makes me happy. I’m the hedging king. Not proud

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