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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #31041
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Here's some totals for the final MLB game.

    Every single baseball game starts between 12:05pm and 12:20pm PDT.

    Angels (Detmers) at Seattle (Ty Andreson) - OVER 7.5 -110
    Miami (P. Lopez) vs. Philadelpha (Falter) - UNDER 7.5 -120
    White Sox (Cease) vs. Destroit (T. Alexander) - UNDER 8 -110

    These should, for the most part, be my last picks, though I may through an occasional pick out during the postseason.
    Philly/Miami was a complete fail. Already a loss.

    Angels/Seattle was a great pick. Already a win.

    Up to White Sox / Detroit to make this a winning day.

  2. #31042
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    So here I am, rolling along in a low-scoring affair, 2-2 after 8. Then Detroit wallops 3 runs in the top of the 9th, and almost scores more.

    Now it's 5-2 and I gotta sweat this bottom of the 9th. Complicating matters is that the rain is pouring down now.

  3. #31043
    Quote Originally Posted by country978 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post

    I did 10 NFL teasers this week. Unfortunately I wasn¬’t paying close enough attention and put New Orleans in 5 of them. I don¬’t hate NO spot, but that is a little more saints exposure than ideal.
    I think you'll be happy with your choice to do that
    What a gut punch the end of that game was. New Orleans was up 21-10 and had the ball with 8 minutes to go, and they basically told the Giants: "We are done trying. See if you can come back and win". And the Giants accepted the challenge and won.

    New Orleans did nothing but run the ball, get predictably stuffed and punt the rest of the game, and the Giants scored 3 times in a row and won. He had a good career, but it looks like the game really has passed Sean Payton by. In 2021 you can't be up by 11 points, go 2-3 passing the ball with no turnovers for the rest of the game, and lose. It just isn't acceptable coaching. Maybe in 1961 that was passable, but in 2021 that is straight malfeasance.

    Between that and the Oregon game, I think I really am done for awhile.

  4. #31044
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    They held on 5-2, so I went 2-1 today.

    Been a long time since I posted my record!

    Through 6/25: 53-46-4 (+7.89 units)

    Since then:

    6/27: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
    6/28: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
    6/30: 1-1 (-0.05 units)
    7/01: 1-0 (+1.75 units)
    7/02: 2-1 (+0.80 units)
    7/03: 2-0 (+1.93 units)
    7/04: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
    7/05: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
    7/07: NO BET (pitcher didn't go)
    7/08: 1-0 (+0.98 units)
    7/09: 1-1 (-0.05 units)
    7/10: 1-0 (+1.05 units)
    7/11: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
    7/21: 1-0 (+0.88 units)
    7/23: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
    7/24: 1-0 (+0.74 units)
    7/26: 1-0 (+0.87 units)
    7/27: 1-1 (-0.10 units)
    7/28: 1-0 (+0.83 units)
    7/30: 0-2-1 (-2.00 units)
    7/31: 2-0 (+2.11 units)
    8/02: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
    8/03: 1-0 (+1.43 units)
    8/05: 1-1 (+0.18 units)
    8/06: 3-0 (+3.60 units)
    8/07: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
    8/09: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
    8/10: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
    8/11: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
    8/13: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
    8/14: 1-0 (+1.28 units)
    8/17: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
    8/18: 1-0 (+0.83 units)
    8/19: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
    8/26: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
    8/29: 1-0 (+0.78 units)
    8/30: 1-0 (+0.83 units)
    9/03: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
    9/04: 1-0 (+0.87 units)
    9/07: 1-1 (-0.08 units)
    9/16: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
    9/17: 2-0 (+1.70 units)
    9/18: 1-0 (+0.87 units)
    9/20: 1-0 (+0.83 units)
    9/21: 1-1 (-0.17 units)
    9/22: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
    9/23: 1-0 (+1.48 units)
    9/27: 1-0 (+1.48 units)
    9/28: 2-0 (+1.76 units)
    9/29: 1-0 (+0.91 units)
    9/30: 1-1 (-0.09 units)
    10/1: 1-0 (+0.91 units)
    10/2: 1-0 (+1.35 units)
    10/3: 2-1 (+0.82 units)

    TOTAL 6/27-10/3: 42-36-1 (+6.31 units)

    GRAND TOTAL: 95-82-5 (+14.20 units)

    Total games bet with result: 182

    Total ROI: +7.80%

    Each game was a 1 unit bet. I do this so you see my true record. Lots internet scamdicappers will just keep increasing fictional "units" bet to get out of the hole. I only use units here because my picks are a combo of moneylines and totals, neither of which are usually -110.

    The end helped. In the final 12 games I bet, I went 10-2 with a +8.68 unit profit.

    Very solid season. Only real trouble occurred between August 7 and August 26, where I went 2-11 and lost 8.89 units.

    I won't be betting much on the playoffs.

     
    Comments
      
      JeffDime: Very nice Druff!
      
      Sanlmar: Was fun betting baseball with ya. Well done.

  5. #31045
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Bets for Sep 27-Oct 3(Week 10)

    Settled

    PGA Sanderson (After R1) Sam Burns $1000 at +1400 (W +$14,000)

    LPGA Shoprite SY Kim - $1,000 at +2800 (L -$1,000)

    Start $50,000 Remaining $58,200 Current Week +$12,850 Last Week -$1,620

    Total Win/Loss +8,200

    ————

    Hope people had it. Nice to have that 5 figure week. Fighting through all those close calls. Burns was 55th for the week putting and still won. Going to enjoy this one.

  6. #31046
    Also the Giants had a TD which I don't understand how it was a TD.

    John Ross had a TD where he fumbled the ball at the goal line into the end zone, but the ref called a TD immediately. AFTER the ref had called the TD and all the players had consequently stopped, Ross went over and recovered the ball in the end zone.

    Then replay determined that Ross had fumbled before he went in, but they awarded him the TD on the fumble recovery, AFTER the ref had already signaled the play over. How in the world does the rule book say that is a TD? It is one thing if it is boom-boom. But I have never heard of someone being awarded a fumble recovery where they recovered the ball a full second AFTER the play had been ruled dead and everyone else had stopped playing.

    I mean, I am not sure what the correct call should be. That is a weird spot. But it seems like it should be Giants ball at the 1 or a touchback. I don't know how you call a TD on a ball that was recovered a full second after the play was ruled dead and everyone had stopped playing.
    Last edited by Kalam; 10-03-2021 at 03:55 PM.

  7. #31047
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    NFL through 3 weeks 7-3, +3.7 units coming off a clean sweep 3-0 last week.

    KC -7
    GB/Pitts over 45.5
    ATL +1
    1-2, -1.2 units

    Total on year 8-5, +2.5 units.

    GB/Pitts hit 44, brutal.
    Atlanta choked, brutal.

  8. #31048
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Bets for Oct 4-Oct 10(Week 11)

    New

    $500 Parlay

    Spanish Open Rahm +250 & Senior PGA Constellation Mickelson +400 to win $8,250

    Start $50,000 Remaining $57,700 Current Week $0 Last Week +12,850

    Total Win/Loss +8,200

    ————

    This is a very chalky week. Rahm opened at +250 and Mickelson +400 & certain books already moving them to +200 and +350 respectively. I don’t want to ship it at these odds but I think this play is a good compromise. I’ve never seen an open event with a guy as low as Rahm.

  9. #31049
    Been on a fucking cooler lately. Lost on LSU even though they were up late in the 3rd 19-10. Then I lost the point spread on the Pats last night. I am not pissed though on the Pats, Brady could have played it safe at the end, but instead chucked two end zone passes to Antonio Brown with a minute left. First one should have been a easy TD but Brown lost it in the lights. He catches either one and I win and make up my LSU loss. Mac Jones is going to be a huge star for the Pats.

    I got the over 51.5 tonight on LV-LA. On paper this looks like a shootout.

  10. #31050
    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by country978 View Post

    I think you'll be happy with your choice to do that
    What a gut punch the end of that game was. New Orleans was up 21-10 and had the ball with 8 minutes to go, and they basically told the Giants: "We are done trying. See if you can come back and win". And the Giants accepted the challenge and won.

    New Orleans did nothing but run the ball, get predictably stuffed and punt the rest of the game, and the Giants scored 3 times in a row and won. He had a good career, but it looks like the game really has passed Sean Payton by. In 2021 you can't be up by 11 points, go 2-3 passing the ball with no turnovers for the rest of the game, and lose. It just isn't acceptable coaching. Maybe in 1961 that was passable, but in 2021 that is straight malfeasance.

    Between that and the Oregon game, I think I really am done for awhile.
    It was plain awful!! I had the saints straight up -7 and had them in 2 teasers. And of course I had the bucs too. A most rotten weekend for betting.

  11. #31051
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Bets for Oct 4-Oct 10(Week 11)

    ****New Bad Line Alert***

    Cognizant LPGA - $1000 on J Ko +1400 MGM she is +750 other places

    Current

    $500 Parlay

    Spanish Open Rahm +250 & Senior PGA Constellation Mickelson +400 to win $8,250

    Start $50,000 Remaining $56,700 Current Week $0 Last Week +12,850

    Total Win/Loss +8,200

    ————

    She opened +750 in most places. Almost double the line. Got to do it. Don’t take her +750. Strictly Bet MGM +1400 play. I would expect them to adjust line soon.

    See Current MGM and Caesars below..

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  12. #31052
    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by country978 View Post

    I think you'll be happy with your choice to do that
    What a gut punch the end of that game was. New Orleans was up 21-10 and had the ball with 8 minutes to go, and they basically told the Giants: "We are done trying. See if you can come back and win". And the Giants accepted the challenge and won.

    New Orleans did nothing but run the ball, get predictably stuffed and punt the rest of the game, and the Giants scored 3 times in a row and won. He had a good career, but it looks like the game really has passed Sean Payton by. In 2021 you can't be up by 11 points, go 2-3 passing the ball with no turnovers for the rest of the game, and lose. It just isn't acceptable coaching. Maybe in 1961 that was passable, but in 2021 that is straight malfeasance.

    Between that and the Oregon game, I think I really am done for awhile.
    I would not get too down, this weekend was a wild one. I am kicking myself not taking the under in the Alabama - Ole Miss game. It was 80 at kickoff. I mean fucking 80. I was pissed after I missed it, so what did I do? I took MI State under where the O/U was 70. Playing Western Kentucky, should be an easy one, right? Nope the WKU QB lights up the MI State defense for 31. Could have been worse though, I nearly bet Arkansas. Actually the day simply would have ended earlier I suppose since it was a noon game. Saturday was a train wreck. Sunday night worse.

     
    Comments
      
      country978: ok we get em next time

  13. #31053
    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Snead View Post
    Giants +7
    Giants ML @285

    Seattle ML @ +120

    Vikings ML and game total over 51.5

    Vikqueens shit the bed at home. But, max bet on Seattle ML and a 2.5 unit bet on Giants @ +285 paid nicely.

    Raiders +3

    Raiders ML and game total Under 51.5

    GL

  14. #31054
    I already have a decent sized bet on the Raiders - Chargers over 51.5. Thinking about 2x down. Anyone think otherwise?

  15. #31055
    I’m riding the teaser train til it runs out of track. Two recurring pieces last week were the Bengals and Bucs. -1Ĺ miraculously worked on both. More luck than smarts. That is the NFL (as the ball doinks off crossbar etc.)

    Here’s another.

    Las Vegas Raiders +9
    New England Patriots -3

    I’m just following sharps (Raiders +3) and the Dogs success (38-25 ATS @ 60%) on the season.

    On the other leg, I am self aware enough to know I have errantly fallen under the spell of Patriot Mac Jones cause Tampa’s wretched defense made him look promising. Recency bias. I get it. I am a flawed human being.

    Just action and experimenting sexually.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 10-04-2021 at 12:29 PM.

  16. #31056
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Iím riding the teaser train til it runs out of track. Two recurring pieces last week were the Bengals and Bucs. -1Ĺ miraculously worked on both. More luck than smarts. That is the NFL (as the ball doinks off crossbar etc.)

    Hereís another.

    Las Vegas Raiders +9
    New England Patriots -3

    Iím just following sharps (Raiders +3) and the Dogs success (38-25 ATS @ 60%) on the season.

    On the other leg, I am self aware enough to know I have errantly fallen under the spell of Patriot Mac Jones cause Tampaís wretched defense made him look promising. Recency bias. I get it. I am a flawed human being.

    Just action and experimenting sexually.
    19-17 was a win for the Pats last night.

    Jones looks good, Bill had a magnificent game plan per usual. If they had a healthy running back.........

  17. #31057
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Iím riding the teaser train til it runs out of track. Two recurring pieces last week were the Bengals and Bucs. -1Ĺ miraculously worked on both. More luck than smarts. That is the NFL (as the ball doinks off crossbar etc.)

    Hereís another.

    Las Vegas Raiders +9
    New England Patriots -3

    Iím just following sharps (Raiders +3) and the Dogs success (38-25 ATS @ 60%) on the season.

    On the other leg, I am self aware enough to know I have errantly fallen under the spell of Patriot Mac Jones cause Tampaís wretched defense made him look promising. Recency bias. I get it. I am a flawed human being.

    Just action and experimenting sexually.
    no spell, he's good. He was great in college and picked up the pats offense quick enough to start the season. I still wouldn't take him over Trevor Lawrence but we're all going to be liking this kid for years to come. I hope you're not choking yourself as part of the experiment. Its like bath salt - you just dont wanna cross that line.

  18. #31058
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    I’m riding the teaser train til it runs out of track. Two recurring pieces last week were the Bengals and Bucs. -1Ĺ miraculously worked on both. More luck than smarts. That is the NFL (as the ball doinks off crossbar etc.)

    Here’s another.

    Las Vegas Raiders +9
    New England Patriots -3

    I’m just following sharps (Raiders +3) and the Dogs success (38-25 ATS @ 60%) on the season.

    On the other leg, I am self aware enough to know I have errantly fallen under the spell of Patriot Mac Jones cause Tampa’s wretched defense made him look promising. Recency bias. I get it. I am a flawed human being.

    Just action and experimenting sexually.
    19-17 was a win for the Pats last night.

    Jones looks good, Bill had a magnificent game plan per usual. If they had a healthy running back.........
    That’s my point though. Yes, Jones looked good but he looked not so good the week before. Tampa defense is wretched and injured and awful.

    Mac Jones looks good bonus trivia
    Mac Jones is 7-of-7 for 74 yards when CB Richard Sherman is the nearest defender. Sherman also has a DPI penalty.

    Sherman was released from the mental health clinic? Who knew.

  19. #31059
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post

    19-17 was a win for the Pats last night.

    Jones looks good, Bill had a magnificent game plan per usual. If they had a healthy running back.........
    Thatís my point though. Yes, Jones looked good but he looked not so good the week before. Tampa defense is wretched and injured and awful.

    Mac Jones looks good bonus trivia
    Mac Jones is 7-of-7 for 74 yards when CB Richard Sherman is the nearest defender. Sherman also has a DPI penalty.

    Sherman was released from the mental health clinic? Who knew.
    its only his 4th game and at least he knew enough to put the ball there. I would not trade him for Fields, Lance or Wilson. I'm not sold on the weapons he has around him at this point either. The game against Miami was as awful as it gets but they lost that game in spite of a great performance by Jones in his 1st game. I like Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence better as far as all the young qbs are concerned but I don't share the same concerns about him as you at all.

  20. #31060
    Quote Originally Posted by country978 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post

    That’s my point though. Yes, Jones looked good but he looked not so good the week before. Tampa defense is wretched and injured and awful.

    Mac Jones looks good bonus trivia
    Mac Jones is 7-of-7 for 74 yards when CB Richard Sherman is the nearest defender. Sherman also has a DPI penalty.

    Sherman was released from the mental health clinic? Who knew.
    its only his 4th game and at least he knew enough to put the ball there. I would not trade him for Fields, Lance or Wilson. I'm not sold on the weapons he has around him at this point either. The game against Miami was as awful as it gets but they lost that game in spite of a great performance by Jones in his 1st game. I like Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence better as far as all the young qbs are concerned but I don't share the same concerns about him as you at all.
    I had people over last night. Many casuals and women. Some seriously talking like Mac Jones was the new Brady. He’s not. He’s not awful either.

    The restaurants at Patriot Place (the house that Brady built) gonna be a lot slower going forward.

    I was explaining that Brady was about to break Brees passing record. After all my talk when it happened Brady gave no fucks and just played on. Brees standing there in his suit like a dope. So was I

    Remember the crying and hugging when Brees broke the record? Lol.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 10-04-2021 at 02:14 PM.

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