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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #30961
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Okay, so I've hit 2 decent dogs in a row, let's keep it going...

    Atlanta (Morton) vs. Philadelphia (Wheeler) - Under 7.5 -110
    Kansas City (Singer) -118 vs. Cleveland (Civale)
    Outstanding 2-0

    I believe you have put together quite a run recently.

     
    Comments
      
      Dan Druff: ty

  2. #30962
    Cowboys are only -200 to win the NFC East. I cant see this not be free money.

    Washington and Giants both suck and Dallas has good rushing defense and can put up points. They could go 9-0 once thev beat Carolina to go 4-0. That's going to be a low scoring game for sure. Going to go under 50.5.

    Eagles probably going to go .500 if that.
    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post

    idk how old your kid is but i know teenagers carry more viral load than anyone

  3. #30963
    Quote Originally Posted by Onestep View Post
    Cowboys are only -200 to win the NFC East. I cant see this not be free money.

    Washington and Giants both suck and Dallas has good rushing defense and can put up points. They could go 9-0 once thev beat Carolina to go 4-0. That's going to be a low scoring game for sure. Going to go under 50.5.

    Eagles probably going to go .500 if that.
    Cowboys have a real bad backup QB situation. Dak gets hurt and things can get ugly fast. But yeah -200 seems like value. Chances are Dak stays healthy and even if he goes out and the team gets a lot worse, but they could still possibly win games in this crappy division.

  4. #30964
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Once the regular MLB season winds down, I won't be posting many MLB picks. Playoff betting is really hard because books put a lot more effort into setting lines. This is true across all major sports.

    Kinda sad I didn't pull the trigger on the Orioles yesterday, because I was really feeling they were going to beat the Red Sox, and were like +250. However, I chickened out because the Sawks are in a super tight wildcard race, and in the final week of the season when a lot is on the line, failteams tend to get smacked around by good teams more than usual. Orioles squeaked by and won.

    But I can't complain too much, winning both of my picks yesterday, especially the Royals where Singer had an awful outing and didn't last an inning, leaving during the 1st with arm discomfort after giving up 3 runs. That injury actually saved my bet, as the bullpen was excellent and gave up just 1 run in the last 8 1/3 innings, and the Royals came back to win.

    I look forward to firing on the NBA in a few weeks, though I've had a hard time in the NBA in the second half of the season, so I'm going to have to watch that going forward. NBA is hard because the game seems to be changing so rapidly, and I'm having to modify my strategy seemingly every year. I much prefer betting on baseball.

    I'm not an NFL guy, so I will leave that to the experts here.

  5. #30965
    Cannot get off St Louis now....-113/ yesterday caught them at +$ on a 16W streak.now 17.....ty ty ty//.

    This why dopes Like CM lose....They fade streaks, They increase bets when losing. NOT winning, Dopes... you jump on W3 in a row until they lose. You lose 1x, go the other way you lost from W4-W15. owwww


    CM beyond a grifter, narcissistic thief, being a horrible provider to family, He is mentally ill, delusional, has dreams of Grandeur that shall elude him as long as he takes the road he travels.....

    His mind is Polluted with Lust of Riches, all materialistic Lusts to boot...
    None of Family, well being, peace....

    He is as doomed as a man w/term.bigC. BUT UNLIKE TERM.C GUY HE HAS TO LIVE and go on for the remainder of his days after being destroyed from inside to out.
    He will Weep, moan & Pray to die one day.....
    As it is written, so shall it be.


    Mark 14:35,36
    "And he went forward a little, and fell on the ground, and prayed that, if it were possible, the hour might pass from him…"

  6. #30966
    @ shoeshine

    Iíve been riding the Cardinals too. Parlay piece. However, Iím on Brewers +102. My handicap is pretty amateur. Cardinals lineup is exhausted and has clinched the wildcard. The only thing important to the Cards right now is resting up and preparing for the Dodgers. The Brewers have stumbled into the close and are not finishing strong. They need to get right.

    Itís a flip and Iím taking Brewers small. Save ammo for Giants & Dodgers

    In a story which is as old as the baseball playoffs

    Brewers P Devin Williams drunkenly breaks hand during clinch celebration, expected to miss playoffs
    I have not gotten my tip sheet from CM yet. Is he on Brewers?

  7. #30967
    @ Druff

    My greatest success has been baseball playoffs. Not a huge sample size admittedly. For the same reason you don’t bet Dodgers most of your neighbors do. This is not uncommon across a country that now has state legalized wagering for the most part. Thoughtless homers.

    Mattress Mack will show up with suitcases and lay a million or two on the Astros. This is replicated many times at nearly similar silly amounts

    Baseball unlike football or basketball is pretty nearly solved. More amateurs than you imagine have a model and upload last nights data at the push of a button. I don’t think the books (of which very very few originate numbers) are sharpening their pencils. Baseball playoffs are more than ever about balancing action.

  8. #30968
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Okay... just one today... I think.

    Baltimore (Lowther) vs. Boston (Eovaldi) - Under 9.5 -110

    Always felt Eovaldi was overrated and overpaid, and I still think that. However, he did roll off 7 straight decent starts from August 11th to September 19, before getting shellacked by the Yankees last time out. But we will forgive that, and this is a much easier matchup.

     
    Comments
      
      Rayo88: Nice call!
      
      JeffDime: Nice run Druff

  9. #30969
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Let's attempt to continue the streak.

    The one starts at 3:35pm PDT.

    Pittsburgh (Yajure) vs. Cubs (Steele) - Under 8.5 -105

    Battle of the failteams. Battle of the rookies.

    Both profile as ones who can probably handle fail lineups fairly well, but struggle against tough offensive squads. Steele has particularly good stuff (52K in 50 IP this year), but his command has been off, and he's given up a lot of HR lately.

    Wouldn't be surprising to see both of them pitch well here, though neither will be in for a lot of innings.

  10. #30970
    Anyone betting tonight's TNF game shows true degeneracy.

    Over 46 and Jags covering +7.5. I don't advise this but I'm sprinkling a bit on Jags winning at +280. Good luck.

  11. #30971
    On Jags +7.5 as well.

  12. #30972
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Bets for Sep 27-Oct 3(Week 10)

    New

    PGA Sanderson (After R1) Sam Burns $500 at +1400

    Current

    LPGA Shorpite - SY Kim - $1,000 at +2800

    Start $50,000 Remaining $44,000 Current Week $0 Last Week -$1,620

    Total Win/Loss -$4,500

    ————

    Burns was 16-1 before today. He shot 4 under without capitalizing on the Par 5s. Glad to take him at 14-1 and would expect him to handle the Par 5s tomorrow and hopefully into the weekend. Pretty close to his pre tournament price.

  13. #30973
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Really annoying. Pittsburgh didn't score, as I thought might happen. Cubs hammered Yajure and were up 7-0 after 3. Yet here we are in the 9th, and it's only 9-0. One fewer run and I would've won anyway, most likely. Oh well.

    Time to fire on another one I like

    Battle of the has-beens:

    Arizona (Bumgarner) at San Francisco (Kazmir) - Over 8.5 -110

  14. #30974
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Really annoying. Pittsburgh didn't score, as I thought might happen. Cubs hammered Yajure and were up 7-0 after 3. Yet here we are in the 9th, and it's only 9-0. One fewer run and I would've won anyway, most likely. Oh well.

    Time to fire on another one I like

    Battle of the has-beens:

    Arizona (Bumgarner) at San Francisco (Kazmir) - Over 8.5 -110
    Today was a minor hiccup for the streak. Maybe you put a little on top of this like Chrissy taught us.

     
    Comments
      
      JeffDime: LOL.

  15. #30975
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Bets for Sep 27-Oct 3(Week 10)

    New

    PGA Sanderson (After R1) Sam Burns $1000 at +1400

    Euro Dunhill Horsfield $150 at 100-1

    Current

    LPGA Shorpite - SY Kim - $1,000 at +2800

    Start $50,000 Remaining $43,550 Current Week $0 Last Week -$1,620

    Total Win/Loss -$4,500

    ————

    Like Burns even more. Doubling down to $1000. Horsfield is a miracle bet. But the guy got hot late in the round and is playing the easier course in the early wave tomorrow. Lost big bets on him. Worth a shot betting small with astronomical odds.

  16. #30976
    As NFL spreads get sharper does the value of teasers increase?

  17. #30977
    NFL through 3 weeks 7-3, +3.7 units coming off a clean sweep 3-0 last week.

    KC -7
    GB/Pitts over 45.5
    ATL +1

     
    Comments
      
      JeffDime: Good stuff
      
      Sanlmar: You posting picks on Skatz or is this a Daly thing?

  18. #30978
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Iím optimistic about Burns but SY Kim just a mess. They are playing in Atlantic City and Iím surprised she hasnít hit a window out in the hotel. At least I didnít go watch this because the tickets are dirt cheap. No live odds on this tournament so couldnít switch horses. Two things that are tilting is Inbee was the other name I just didnít pull the trigger on. I also have a feeling if the big guy was here I would have a few bucks on Castren. He always liked her game.

    GL this weekend to everyone.

  19. #30979
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    As NFL spreads get sharper does the value of teasers increase?
    Cincy -1.5 teaser piece never in doubt despite leading for a grand total of 0 seconds

    +165
    Name:  C6579262-A025-4D35-8CF7-2053B0E19997.jpeg
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    Shop your teaser prices amongst a couple books. The books are getting hit by winning teaser action -especially this year. The juice is getting adjusted and varies greatly

    Honestly, for me the teaser thing is a continuation of late season MLB big favorite parlays success. I’m losing my will to gamble cause I want to hang on to profit. Teasers been working and digging into the approach revealed I am not alone this year.

    Giants Dodgers parlay cashed again…. but that’s not news.


    I have concerns about Titans. Wish it was the last piece so I could hedge

  20. #30980
    Value UFC picks, Saturday 10/2, starting at 4pm ET:

    Shanna Young +110, .75u
    Gaetano Pirrello +215, .75u
    Devonte Smith -150, 1u
    Joe Solecki -135, 1u
    Mike Breeden +400, .5u
    Misha Cirkunov +125, 1u
    Kevin Holland -165, 1u
    Johnny Walker +135, 1u

     
    Comments
      
      Sanlmar: I have 2 hours left on a Friday to get a home equity loan. Thx

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