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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #29721
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Texas (Gibson) +108 vs. Oakland (Montas)

  2. #29722
    Tampa delivering a serious ass kicking tonight

    Reminding everyone they are still the champs.

    I admit the Islanders scared me but now I feel a lot better.

     
    Comments
      
      NickyPipes: TB will win the cup, I am a fool for better FL Panthers in round 1!

  3. #29723
    I like the numbers tonight on Royals +230. It is Geritt Cole. It is at Yankee Stadium but the Yankees are just over .500 while the Royals are 6 under. But that’s with an 11 game losing streak and a 9 of 11 losing streak also. So they are incredibly down and up and down.

    To break even +230 you only have to be a 30.3% win team or 51 wins. The Royals clearly win this game 51x if they played an entire season. Brady Singer not a terrible pitcher for KC.
    It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?

  4. #29724
    Quote Originally Posted by jsearles22 View Post
    I like the numbers tonight on Royals +230. It is Geritt Cole. It is at Yankee Stadium but the Yankees are just over .500 while the Royals are 6 under. But that’s with an 11 game losing streak and a 9 of 11 losing streak also. So they are incredibly down and up and down.

    To break even +230 you only have to be a 30.3% win team or 51 wins. The Royals clearly win this game 51x if they played an entire season. Brady Singer not a terrible pitcher for KC.
    Obviously Cole was crying and stuttering after his last game about the sticky icky rules changes. He wasn’t sharp either. Only struck out 4 if I recall. Sumpin’ might seriously be up.

    I hovered my mouse over this game countless times since waking up. I considered a parlay with ChiSox or someone else to juice it up even more. I just couldn’t do it. Earlier this year, yes - I woulda been on KC.

    My advice would be to bet 1st 5 and isolate Cole if that’s your angle. Yankees have the infinitely better bullpen.


    Kershaw today.
    Dodgers vs a lefty? Check
    Dodgers facing a change up not fastball up pitcher? Check
    Kershaw goo-free trial? Check

    It’s a pick ‘em so not the usual “fade the Dodgers” value but Padres is the right side.

    Oh yeah,
    San Francisco Giants +114 for Game

    Seattle Mariners -½ -110 for 1st 5 Innings
    Toronto Blue Jays +110 for 1st 5 Innings
    Oakland Athletics -130 for Game
    Los Angeles Angels -124 for Game
    Angels bullpen overs have been a live wagering thing and I’m surprised I took full game - oops, too late

    ChiSox vs Lefties Autobet window is open again
    Chicago White Sox team total over 4½ -120
    Literally anything you do ChiSox is correct today

  5. #29725
    Nickyballz play of the day & Sanlmar hate bet

    Tampa Bay Rays -124
    vs Red Sox
    ERod “the dumpster fire” and Sawks good offense
    Rays no offense & bullpen day

     
    Comments
      
      NickyPipes: Brother the Rays have the top away offense (I know it’s TB home game) in the MLB. Please respect this a team that can score runs

  6. #29726
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Nickyballz play of the day & Sanlmar hate bet

    Tampa Bay Rays -124
    vs Red Sox
    ERod “the dumpster fire” and Sawks good offense
    Rays no offense & bullpen day
    Brother you know Pipes has BIG money on the Rays tonight, but I got in a bit earlier at -114.

    I have been observing the negative comments about the Rays and I forgive them! Be careful though, Wander “The Wonder” Franco is here and will make his presence known. I sense a good week for the Rays, this is a big series, losing Glasnow is a big big hit and it took some momentum out of the sails, as does losing on like 4 walk offs in a week. Part of the game though boys, just like losing coin flips in poker, who cares? As Tony G says “file a bad beat form” and hand it into management

  7. #29727
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Let the record show Jeff and I have hit the last two weeks in PGA. Show me another message board that’s done that.


    Hard to make it three in a row esp at this track. Not interested in chalk this week. This course one of the shorter ones on tour. Seems like previous form is a big factor here.

    Bubba +5500 and Redman at +6500

     
    Comments
      
      JeffDime: LFG
      
      NickyPipes: Two great posters and gamblers tho I do not care too much about golf, silly me not blindly tailing, my loss!
      
      d1sposition: Well done boys

  8. #29728
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Let the record show Jeff and I have hit the last two weeks in PGA. Show me another message board that’s done that.


    Hard to make it three in a row esp at this track. Not interested in chalk this week. This course one of the shorter ones on tour. Seems like previous form is a big factor here.

    Bubba +5500 and Redman at +6500
    Fucking A!

    This week is tough to get a feel for and for sure tough to ship in on chalk. I’ll put a few bucks on each of Daly’s guys.

    The BMW International (Euro Tour) I’m putting $300 on Pieters +3300. All i got so far. Just a value play. He was in contention and played well a few weeks back. If not for Armitage going super low he would of at least been a in a playoff. Guy with a lot of skill that hasn’t broken through yet. Nerves are an issue but just don’t want to miss the boat when the odds are bloated. Had two seconds in a row on the Euro Tour. One was preflop and one after first round.

    Nothing else so far.

     
    Comments
      
      NickyPipes: I don’t know much about this Dime guy but he seems like a real interesting guy, probably has a lot of stories would like to hear the CRica ones
      
      d1sposition:

  9. #29729
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Won Texas yesterday.

    If you can still find RHE bets (they're back on Betanysports, btw):

    Mets (Stroman) vs. Atlanta (Morton) - Under 24.5 RHE -115

     
    Comments
      
      NickyPipes: Texas was a good play yesterday, I’ve seen you win a few with them as a dog

  10. #29730
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Here are two later games, which I also hope win as a Dodgers fan:

    Dodgers (Kershaw) -114 at San Diego (Snell)
    Angels (Heaney) -122 vs. San Francisco (DeSclafani)

  11. #29731
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    It’s time boys…..

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  12. #29732
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    San will be happy knowing the kids over at the heights are going to be vastly over rated this year. Already seen projections of 8 wins with upside. Let’s hope that holds because I always enjoy a group BC fade in the early fall.

    Got three season wins I like already but it does seem like some of the value has been picked already.

    UAB over 7.5 wins - easy favorites for Conf USA this year. Half the D might get drafted in the mid/late rounds. This team is loaded.

    South Carolina over 3.5 wins - you got East Ill, Troy and ECU on the schedule for nonnconferance and Vandy to boot. That’s 4 wins i got them pegged for already and you got 8 more games as a fallback plan.

    North Carolina over 6 wins - team is under rated loaded. They did a complete rebuild last year and managed to finish #23.

    My favorite pick of the whole thing I can’t disclose yet - but I’ll announce in ~ 3 weeks

  13. #29733
    Quote Originally Posted by jsearles22 View Post
    I like the numbers tonight on Royals +230. It is Geritt Cole. It is at Yankee Stadium but the Yankees are just over .500 while the Royals are 6 under. But that’s with an 11 game losing streak and a 9 of 11 losing streak also. So they are incredibly down and up and down.

    To break even +230 you only have to be a 30.3% win team or 51 wins. The Royals clearly win this game 51x if they played an entire season. Brady Singer not a terrible pitcher for KC.

     
    Comments
      
      Daly: Vnh impressive
      
      Sanlmar: Good man. +230 woulda fixed a lot of today’s problems
      
      JeffDime: Well done
    It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?

  14. #29734
    Still shaking off that Clippers loss hangover. All bets aside that was a stomach punch game, I still think they win this series and if PG13 makes 2 free throws my day yesterday woulda been huge. Shake it off on to the next

    Sanlmar give me something on this Giants and Gausman vs Angels with your boy on the mound. This is one of those games I want to watch and wager on. Thank you for your opinions lately, we staying health with some baseball streaks.

  15. #29735
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    Clippers had that game for a split second. Ty Lue made great adjustments and Monte drew up a great last play. The late change to starting lineup made the two props I lost up top void. They never call the moving elbow in the back screen there. Boogie Cousins fucked it up by not making the pass harder..

    I like starting the week with a lead gives me a license to gamble up. Who we liking today?

  16. #29736
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    1-2 yesterday, but won the RHE.

    So here's another RHE, starting in a few:

    Toronto (Ray) at Miami (Rogers) - Under 23 RHE +100

  17. #29737
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    1-2 yesterday, but won the RHE.

    So here's another RHE, starting in a few:

    Toronto (Ray) at Miami (Rogers) - Under 23 RHE +100
    BTW BOL has this at 24.5 (yes it's back on there) but you have to lay -125

  18. #29738
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    1-2 yesterday, but won the RHE.

    So here's another RHE, starting in a few:

    Toronto (Ray) at Miami (Rogers) - Under 23 RHE +100
    BTW BOL has this at 24.5 (yes it's back on there) but you have to lay -125
    I'm with you on this one along with the underdogs this evening.. I have all my friends on Stanford with me and would like more. If any of you have a live option for College Baseball get me down please. I can Venmo or Cashapp immediately.




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  19. #29739
    Ima try the cry to the dealer "geez I haven't won a pot in hours"

    Runners on in bottom of 9th. Bases loaded bottom 10th one out and guy swings at ball 4 twice. 2 outs and Rendon scolds one off pitchers leg right to first basemen.

    Now deal me top set vs donkeys draw and double me up please. Angels win in 3, 2, 1

  20. #29740
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Something I’ll mention. Some of you might read it as a bit of a “tight brag” which it probably is a bit but the lesson is meant to be well intended.

    With any luck or even some skill you may one day find yourself amongst the sharp players. There are hundreds if not thousands more sharp than I but I do my damage. When you get to that point keeping outs becomes as big a skill as picking winners, esp if you are dealing with locals. A good agent is invaluable and there are many bad ones out there I can assure you. After some winning weeks eventually the main bookie is going to want to cut your ass loose. The only thing preventing that is a good relationship with your agent.

    Instead of losing an out tonight I got a “watch your ass, they out to drop you”. Now I get to continue to terrorize the book for a little while longer. That’s potentially worth a few more grand in the short term AND the long term.

    Pro tips
    1. Always be the first person in line to pay your guy in a losing week.
    2. Reach out to him with the number you owe before he has a chance to ask.
    3. Respect his time and any appointments that you make. He can have as many as 50 people on his sheet he needs to meet - he doesn’t want to wait around waiting for your dumb ass.
    4. When you have a big week don’t be afraid to tip him out. When you win, he doesn’t. When you win big you can fuck up his sheet with a “makeup” for weeks. Now he’s working for free for a bit. Citing him in a bit is always going to get you some clout.
    5. Don’t “get coy” with him once the cat is out of the bag that your play is sharp, or at the least sharper than most. Last thing he wants to hear is how lucky you must be. If you are hitting 64% of props over 100 plays and won 2 golf tournaments he ain’t buying it.
    6. Don’t be afraid to tell him about the sharp of the sharp plays if you know he bets on a his own account. Emphasize that even though he works for the book that you are team mates as well. It sounds corny but it helps.

    All of the above just saved me a very good and profitable account. That’s (I hope) worth money to me in the short term.

    Even more importantly - when you do get cut off eventually it won’t be by this guys hand and he will be empathetic about having to let you go rather than saying “fuck off” and “you can kiss that last envelope good bye”. It builds relationships. Agents know agents. If he gets another sheet you will be the first guy he calls. Long term that is invaluable.

     
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      NickyPipes:
    Last edited by Daly; 06-23-2021 at 05:10 PM.

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