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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #29541
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Nicky, you were talking about streaks in baseball. I’m also sure you’ve found that in life some people are just more comfortable being poor.

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    You did turn me on to this so credit due.

    Minny’s Berrios is so overrated that I just couldn’t fade the Orioles despite yesterday’s discussion. Went to extras but still woulda paid. Mixed feelings. A cheap domestic beer will cure that.
    I forgot to mention Orioles in my post yesterday. They may be the team to fade all summer. AL East is dominant, they will be getting beat up all summer long by TB NY BOSTON TORONTO

    This week, I am keeping it simple:

    Rays every game + Rays series -115

    Game 1 was very big for series bet, not a huge fan of betting a series price when team has Cole going game 3, but Rays tend to own the Yankees. Looking fantastic now with Glasnow going tomorrow

    Twins Series -220

    Got very lucky in game 1, Twins have won something like 15 straight vs Baltimore

    Mets Series -210

    Hope DeGrom finishes a strong day 1 for me

    For now, I am trying to stick with this plan. As you saw, my NHL SERIES bets were 0-3 in the first round, so taking a step back and focusing on baseball. Seeing how the strategy of “playing the streak plays out”, let’s see if we can find another Rays-esque spot.

    I really hate laying those prices with Twins and Mets btw, would almost always prefer to take the dog but let’s see how pounding the streaks go this week!

  2. #29542
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Leafs in reg -110, First team to score Leafs -156. double loss
    .
    San-> I'm on tampa but didn't post.

    Also looking to grab some Winnipeg when the lines come out.

  3. #29543
    Platinum ftpjesus's Avatar
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    NBA lock. Suns smash Lakers tomorrow night. AD is out and I suspect he’s down for the rest of the series. Lakers can’t beat Suns 2 outta 3 without him. CP3 is back despite the bum shoulder. Ayton is crashing the boards and Crowder is giving the Lakers nightmares again like he did with Miami last year in the Finals. Lebron has never had to face a 50+ win team in the first Rnd like he is this year. Lebron is a beast but he’s not enough to finish off The Suns in Rnd 1 all alone.

  4. #29544
    Platinum ftpjesus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Leafs in reg -110, First team to score Leafs -156. double loss
    .
    San-> I'm on tampa but didn't post.

    Also looking to grab some Winnipeg when the lines come out.
    Price will take MTL to the SemiFinals but MTL is in trouble as they will have to face the winner of Colorado Vegas based on records. Price is the hot goalie this year clearly His play is reminiscent of Halak against The Capitals in 2010 he got MTL to the Conf Finals which there is no official conferences this year but they’ll beat WPG in the North final.

  5. #29545
    Platinum ftpjesus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NickyPipes View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Nicky, you were talking about streaks in baseball. I’m also sure you’ve found that in life some people are just more comfortable being poor.

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    You did turn me on to this so credit due.

    Minny’s Berrios is so overrated that I just couldn’t fade the Orioles despite yesterday’s discussion. Went to extras but still woulda paid. Mixed feelings. A cheap domestic beer will cure that.
    I forgot to mention Orioles in my post yesterday. They may be the team to fade all summer. AL East is dominant, they will be getting beat up all summer long by TB NY BOSTON TORONTO

    This week, I am keeping it simple:

    Rays every game + Rays series -115

    Game 1 was very big for series bet, not a huge fan of betting a series price when team has Cole going game 3, but Rays tend to own the Yankees. Looking fantastic now with Glasnow going tomorrow

    Twins Series -220

    Got very lucky in game 1, Twins have won something like 15 straight vs Baltimore

    Mets Series -210

    Hope DeGrom finishes a strong day 1 for me

    For now, I am trying to stick with this plan. As you saw, my NHL SERIES bets were 0-3 in the first round, so taking a step back and focusing on baseball. Seeing how the strategy of “playing the streak plays out”, let’s see if we can find another Rays-esque spot.

    I really hate laying those prices with Twins and Mets btw, would almost always prefer to take the dog but let’s see how pounding the streaks go this week!
    I’m curious what kind of bet you can get on worse record in MLB. Clearly it’s a race to the bottom between Baltimore and Arizona. They are the sewer of the AL and NL clearly

  6. #29546
    Platinum ftpjesus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Excuse my absence, I have been suffering from Leafs depression. Going to game 7 is slightly less than ideal.

    Let's reflect on something more positive.

    Round 1 series bets turned out well. 4-1, +3.35 units
    Carolina -1.5 series bet. -120 win
    Tampa -135 win
    Carolina -240 win
    Winnipeg +175 win
    Leafs -1.5 -140 loss

    Round 2 I did grab Tampa, however will not count as it was not posted.

    Tonight for game 7, just like Vegas we are riding the Leafs. 3-1 comebacks are possible but very rare.

    Leafs in reg -110, First team to score Leafs -156.

    I'm calling a 5-2 victory for the Leafs tonight, you heard it here first.
    My condolences on the Leafs I was kinda hopeful for them this year. As for the 3-1 comeback failings. Tell that to myself and Capitals fans everywhere. They have the record for choking and losing more 3-1 series leads then any team in series play off sports history (NHL, NBA, MLB) with a total of 5 choke jobs. The St Louis Cardinals have choked 4 times in MLB history.

  7. #29547
    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ftpjesus View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by NickyPipes View Post

    I forgot to mention Orioles in my post yesterday. They may be the team to fade all summer. AL East is dominant, they will be getting beat up all summer long by TB NY BOSTON TORONTO

    This week, I am keeping it simple:

    Rays every game + Rays series -115

    Game 1 was very big for series bet, not a huge fan of betting a series price when team has Cole going game 3, but Rays tend to own the Yankees. Looking fantastic now with Glasnow going tomorrow

    Twins Series -220

    Got very lucky in game 1, Twins have won something like 15 straight vs Baltimore

    Mets Series -210

    Hope DeGrom finishes a strong day 1 for me

    For now, I am trying to stick with this plan. As you saw, my NHL SERIES bets were 0-3 in the first round, so taking a step back and focusing on baseball. Seeing how the strategy of “playing the streak plays out”, let’s see if we can find another Rays-esque spot.

    I really hate laying those prices with Twins and Mets btw, would almost always prefer to take the dog but let’s see how pounding the streaks go this week!
    I’m curious what kind of bet you can get on worse record in MLB. Clearly it’s a race to the bottom between Baltimore and Arizona. They are the sewer of the AL and NL clearly
    Don't count out Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Colorado.

  8. #29548
    Turns out you and Druff have much in common Simpdog

    Neither of your teams has won since the advent of hi-def television. Leafs & Dodgers

    You will be right back to believing next season just like Druff.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 06-01-2021 at 08:39 AM.

  9. #29549
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Didnt have much jump off the page for the weekend. I did take some Shane Lowry at 47-1.

  10. #29550
    Quote Originally Posted by ftpjesus View Post
    NBA lock. Suns smash Lakers tomorrow night. AD is out and I suspect he’s down for the rest of the series. Lakers can’t beat Suns 2 outta 3 without him. CP3 is back despite the bum shoulder. Ayton is crashing the boards and Crowder is giving the Lakers nightmares again like he did with Miami last year in the Finals. Lebron has never had to face a 50+ win team in the first Rnd like he is this year. Lebron is a beast but he’s not enough to finish off The Suns in Rnd 1 all alone.

    Response:


  11. #29551
    Rays - Cant stop/Won’t stop

    Parlay +192
    Baseball - 915 Tampa Bay Rays -116
    Hockey - 80 Colorado Avalanche -175 (Weds)
    Just an idea. I have Tampa a couple different ways.

    ChiSox +140

    ChiSox/Indians under 23˝

    Jays -149


    Edit:
    It’s not as manly but Tampa Bay Rays -130 1st 5 is the choice of the cognoscenti.
    You want the money or the girls? There’s no wrong answer

    Yankees have quite a bullpen.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 06-01-2021 at 11:26 AM.

  12. #29552
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Surprised you ain't fading price, Sanlmar. +170 or better can be yours.

    I only have one play today:

    Philadelphia (Nola) at Cincinnati (Gray) - Over 7.5 -115

  13. #29553
    Druff, have you been betting the Rays?

  14. #29554
    jumped in live at + money pipes leggggggggggooo

  15. #29555
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NickyPipes View Post
    Druff, have you been betting the Rays?
    Only a little. I've been posting what I've been betting.

    Good job on that one, Pipes. I know you were plugging them early in the season. I dismissed it because you're from Florida, and I thought you were being a homer.

    Anyway, it's the 6th inning in my one bet today, and it's over. 5-3 game, ship it.


  16. #29556
    Platinum ftpjesus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Turns out you and Druff have much in common Simpdog

    Neither of your teams has won since the advent of hi-def television. Leafs & Dodgers

    You will be right back to believing next season just like Druff.
    I dislike the Dodgers but are we just pretending 2020 didn’t happen with the World Series now?? As far
    as MLB is concerned the Dodgers won last year.

  17. #29557
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    You can blame me for the Rays last night. I jumped on.

    I’ve got a good one I’ll be posting in a little while to try and make up for it.

  18. #29558
    Quote Originally Posted by ftpjesus View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Turns out you and Druff have much in common Simpdog

    Neither of your teams has won since the advent of hi-def television. Leafs & Dodgers

    You will be right back to believing next season just like Druff.
    I dislike the Dodgers but are we just pretending 2020 didn’t happen with the World Series now?? As far
    as MLB is concerned the Dodgers won last year.
    No spring training, 60 game tournament, no fans, teams had to sit out multiple games then play a series of back to back double headers with up to 8 players ineligible and the minor league pool wasn’t operating. The injuries were off the chart. The rules changes. I’m not going to relive it in its entirety as it was just months ago.

    This reminds me of the 1999 NBA season or 1981 MLB or WWII baseball etc etc. serious fans know:

    “As far as the MLB is concerned..” Are you serious here? Did you think they were just going to skip the season? They needed money. They had television contracts. MLB needed to offer a product. They would have concocted anything.

    As well, we were desperate for any sports. We were betting Russian table tennis. Do you not remember any of this?

    The Dodgers dodged COVID where other teams had literally half their lineup ineligible. They ran immaculately pure health wise and received a ring for that alone. The Mariners suffered in a comical fashion. The Marlins skipped endless games and made it into the playoffs because they could never make up their schedule. Joke.

    It was an entertaining diversion but it resembled no other season at all. There are seasons in sports people regard as extraordinary. Did the Dodgers win when everyone else faced the same circumstances? Sure.

    Was there also more variance than anyone could ever process?

    It was an appreciated diversion. It was important for the country that we had this exhibition.

  19. #29559
    Incredibly, I neglected 2017 MLB as another example of an asterisk season (Astros)

    The MLB still sanctioned that mess and the Astros got big beautiful rings, ftpjesus

    The only fans who think the Dodgers ring is as legitimate as all others are Dodger fans. The 90’s Braves fans will make the same argument as I when the comparison of fail eras is made

    I shall serve as the final arbiter
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 06-02-2021 at 07:43 AM.

  20. #29560
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Ok so here is my big bright idea. In golf there is this general concept “horses for courses”. You know the scene in Hoosiers where Gene Hackman breaks out the tape measure and says this court is the exact same as back home in French Lick? Yeah well that’s not Golf. Playing UK golf with small fairways and rough as tall as your knees is much different than playing a mammoth course in the side of a mountain like Augusta which in turn is different than playing on a course next to a ocean with 35 MPH winds. There are big differences between designers and how they lay out holes. Muirfield is “Jacks Place”, as in the golden bear Jack Nicklaus.

    Player x.......”best finish on tour came earlier this year at PGA National when he was second in the Honda, his second best finish on tour came when he was fifth at the Nicklaus designed Glen Abbey at the RBC Canadian Open and his third best ever finish on tour came when 12th at the 2020 Barracuda on the Nicklaus designed Tahoe Mt Club now being used for the event.”

    Player X is Brandon Hagy

    Now I could be dead right about this and that would make his 300-1 price one fucking hell of a bargain. Unfortunately he still would have to beat 100 of the worlds best to realize that equity. It’s admittedly a fucking tall task.

    But..... how about top 10? As the quote above highlights he’s done it a few times already or came real god damn close.

    Brandon Hagy Top 10 +5000 Draftkings, +4000 Fanduel and +3500 on local skins is my play of the week.


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